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Team Lease Services Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,251.2 Chg : -30.60 (-0.93%)
  • Target : 2,370.0 (4.54%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

18 May 2023

Pricing remains under pressure, looking for some recovery in H2FY24…

About The Stock

TeamLease Ltd (TLL) is one of the leading providers of human resource services in the organised segment with ~7% share in flexi staffing.

  • Employment services include temporary staffing solutions, IT staffing, regulatory consultancy for labour law compliance and training & skills
  • Net debt free and healthy double digit RoCE (>14%) key positives
Q4FY23 Results:

TeamLease reported decent margins in Q4FY23 results.

  • Revenue reported muted growth of 0.9% QoQ to ₹ 2,027.3 crore
  • EBITDA margin improved 10 bps QoQ to 1.7%
  • PAPM declined by ₹ 15 in the quarter
What should Investors do?

TeamLease’s share price has declined by ~0.8x over the past five years (from ~₹ 2753 in May 2018 to ~₹ 2267 in May 2023).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value TeamLease at ₹ 2370 i.e. 25x P/E on FY25E.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Key beneficiary of under penetrated temporary staffing market (0.5% in 2015 vs. global average of 1.7%) and formalisation (16% in 2018)
  • The pandemic has forced enterprises to shift to a variables cost structure, which is leading to increased outsourcing of flexi staffing. Hence, we expect overall revenues to increase at 7.4% CAGR in FY22-25E
  • TLL is expected to recover margins albeit gradually, led by a reversal of discounts, improving of core to associate ratio, recover in specialised staffing business and higher revenue growth
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Teamlease, in our IT coverage we like Newgen.

  • Established player in the market of enterprise content management (ECM), business process management (BPM) & customer communications management (CCM)
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 660

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 year CAGR (FY18-23) FY24E FY25E 2 year CAGR (FY23-25E)
Net Sales 5,200.7 4,881.5 6,479.8 7,870.0 16.8 8,312.1 9,079.0 7.4
EBITDA 95.1 98.5 142.4 122.3 12.2 150.4 195.2 26.4
EBITDA Margins (%) 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.6 - 1.8 2.2 -
Net Profit 35.0 77.5 38.4 111.3 8.5 123.9 161.5 20.4
EPS (|) 20.5 45.3 22.5 65.1 - 72.5 94.5 -
P/E (x) 110.8 50.0 100.9 34.8 - 31.3 24.0 -
RoCE (%) 15.0 15.2 16.5 14.7 - 13.8 15.2 -
RoE (%) 6.5 11.5 -4.7 13.3 - 13.1 14.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported muted sequential growth of 0.9% QoQ & 24.2% YoY to | 2,027.3 crore largely due to muted performance in the general staffing business. General staffing (91.4% of mix) grew 0.8% QoQ to | 1,854 crore. Specialised staffing revenue declined 0.6% QoQ to | 140 crore. Other HR services reported strong growth of 16.1% QoQ to | 34 crore due to billing of deferred revenue from Q3 during the quarter. The company in Q3 had indicated that there was billing delay, which would led to deferral of revenue booking to Q4 of ~| 3 crore

 

  • EBITDA margins at company level improved by 10 bps QoQ to 1.7% while in absolute terms EBITDA increased 6.5% QoQ to | 33.7 crore. At segment level general staffing business EBITDA margin declined ~15 bps to 1.6% while specialised staffing EBITDA margins were flat at 6.4%. Other HR services reported strong margin expansion of ~950 bps QoQ to 11.9% due to strong revenue growth in the segment during the quarter. The overall margin expansion was aided by a decline in SG&A expenses (240 bps QoQ decline) and strong margin expansion in other HR services

 

  • The company during the quarter reported PAT of | 23.9 crore with PAT margin of 1.2%. The net margin during the quarter was impacted by the following exceptional items: i) | 9.8 crore impact due to the write off of loan given to Teamlease Skill University on account of lack of revenue visibility due to cancellation of NEEM program by the government, ii) | 1.8 crore impact as provisions for buyback expenses mitigated by the recovery of
    | 9.2 crore from PF trust. The net impact of exceptional items led to | 2.4 crore decline in net profit of the company

 

  • For FY23, the company reported revenue of | 7,870 crore, up 21.5%. General staffing business grew 23% in FY23 to | 7,179 crore while other HR services grew 12.9% to | 125 crore. Specialised staffing due to macro headwinds in IT sector reported muted growth of 6.6%. General staffing, specialised staffing & other HR services declined 20 bps, 110 bps & 120 bps, respectively. At the company level, the margin declined 60 bps to 1.6% during the fiscal year

 

  • In specialised staffing, the company mentioned that the impact of macro headwinds in the IT sector had a significant impact on its business in FY23. The company mentioned that it begun the year on optimism growth of FY22 would continue in FY23 but the demand scenario changed during the year leading to a decline in hiring and later to a general freeze across the IT sector. The company mentioned that it was able to divert its headcounts due to a pick-up in demand of tech hiring in the non IT space. The company, however, had made investment in specialised staffing business & the change in demand impacted margins in the segment. The company also mentioned that it is not seeing a further decline in specialised staffing as of now but indicated that demand is expected to be muted until the IT sector hiring picks up. The company also mentioned that margins in specialised staffing business have bottomed out at the current level unless there is occurrence of any uncertain event

 

  • TeamLease also said its net headcount in specialised staffing declined by 500 QoQ to 8,600. The company indicated that decline was largely due to discontinuation of large mandate with a telecom company due to payment issues and some as per the cost optimisation activities of the company. It said that it added 57 new clients in FY23. The company, however, mentioned that the ramp up with these clients will be gradual as clients generally start small and gradually ramp up their business. TeamLease mentioned that it generally works on a rate card model and margins from clients are generally in the range of 15-22% in specialised staffing business

 

  

  • In general staffing business, the company added 8500 associates in Q4 on a net basis taking the total associates to 223500. On a YoY basis the company added 28900 associates in FY23 on the base of 34700 net additions in FY22. The company mentioned that the demand in large clients is picking up and it is witnessing healthy traction in the sector of BFSI, consumables & telecom. The company mentioned that consumables & BFS has grown by 20% & 18%, respectively, during FY23. TeamLease, however, mentioned that the funding freeze has impacted its business in startups & e-commerce clients. The company, however, maintained they are expecting a gradual recovery in H2FY24 based on the pipeline and discussion with clients. It expects demand to be driven by segments of BFS, FMCG, telecom and manufacturing sector

 

  • The company mentioned that although the demand in large clients is increasing, it also pays lower PAPM, which, is impacting the overall realisations of the company. TeamLease mentioned since volumes with large clients is increasing, it is expecting pricing efficiency, which had led to a decline of ~| 15 in the PAPM to ~| 700. The company mentioned that PAPM was already under pressure since Covid as it was unable to roll back the discount offered during Covid times and lower PAPM from larger clients will further impact overall realisations of the company. The company, however, mentioned that it is working on strategies by way of opportunity to upsell and cross sell to improve its PAPM

 

  • In Degree Apprenticeship, the company mentioned that the cancellation of NEEM program by the government continues to impact its operations. The company mentioned that it has reduced ~9000 associates during the quarter in addition to 20000 reduction in Q3. The company mentioned that impact of reduction of associates in Q3 & Q4 on the revenue of the company was ~| 5 crore and on the EBITDA was | 2.5 crore. TeamLease added that it will further reduce ~9000 associates in the NEEM program over one to two quarters in FY24. The same will have an impact of ~| 3 crore on the margins of the company

 

  • The company mentioned that its top 10 clients gave 38% of associate volume in Q4FY22 while in Q4FY23 it increased 4% to 42%. The company mentioned it consider large clients as those who employ 1000+ associate, medium clients with associate volume between 100-1000 & small clients with associates less than 100. The company mentioned that it has ~25 large clients, 200-300 medium clients and the remaining client base is made of small clients. The company mentioned that 80% of its client base is on PAPM model and 20% is on percentage markup model. TeamLease also mentioned that it charges large clients on 1x of realisations while medium & small clients are charged 1.5x & 2x of realisations, respectively

 

  • The company mentioned that the government has not announced any alternative program in place of the NEEM program. The government, however, has allowed companies to deploy their own apprentices for the clients under NAPS program. The company mentioned that it is looking to deploy associates under the said program and it has signed a few clients however, it expects demand in the same to pick up from Q2FY24 onwards

 

  • The company continued its cost rationalisation activities as it wants to optimise its expenses to maintain the current expenses level in FY24. The company mentioned that its core employees declined by 20 to 780 in Q4. TeamLease mentioned that the decline was largely in specialised staffing & DA business. Productivity improved by 1.2% QoQ to 350 in Q4

 

  • The company mentioned that it will roll out wage hike and will have an impact of | 4 crore per quarter in FY24. It said that it will continue its cost optimisation activities to maintain its margins

 

  • The company mentioned that it has received income tax refund of | 72 crore in FY23 and as on March 2023 its TDS receivable stands at | 230 crores

 

 

  • TeamLease added that its buyback program announced in February will be completed by next month in June. The company had announced buyback 327,869 shares at a buyback amount of | 3,050 per share for total amount of | 100 crore

 

  • The company informed that Ritu Chakraborty (also a co-founder of the company) has resigned from the position of Executive Director and she will continue as non-executive & non-independent director with effect from 1st June 2023. She was associated with the company for over 20 years & in her last role she was largely responsible for the Degree Apprenticeship program of the company

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

Third Floor, Brillanto House,

Road No 13, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

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