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  • CMP : 1,572.0 Chg : -25.80 (-1.61%)
  • Target : 2,540.0 (1.97%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

10 Nov 2022

Cautious outlook for next few quarters…

About The Stock

TeamLease Ltd (TLL) is one of the leading providers of human resource services in the organised segment with ~6% share in flexi staffing.

  • Employment services include temporary staffing solutions, IT staffing, regulatory consultancy for labour law compliance and training & skills
  • Net debt free and healthy double digit RoCE (>14%) key positives
Q2FY23 Results

TeamLease reported decent margin numbers.

  • Revenue increased 4% QoQ to ₹ 1,955.1 crore
  • EBITDA margin increased ~30 bps QoQ to 1.6%
  • Productivity improved 0.6% QoQ to 352
What should Investors do?

TeamLease’s share price has grown ~1.5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 1664 in November 2017 to ~₹ 2491 in November 2022).

  • We change our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD
Target Price and Valuation

We value TeamLease at ₹ 2540 i.e. 26x P/E on FY25E.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Key beneficiary of under penetrated temporary staffing market (0.5% in 2015 vs. global average of 1.7%) and formalisation (16% in 2018)
  • The pandemic has forced enterprises to shift to a variables cost structure, which is leading to increased outsourcing of flexi staffing. Hence, we expect overall revenues to increase at 14.5% CAGR in FY22-25E
  • TLL is expected to recover margins albeit gradually, led by a reversal of discounts, improving of core to associate ratio, improving specialised staffing margins and higher revenue growth
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Teamlease, in our IT coverage we like InfoEdge.

  • Leadership in recruitment segment and quasi play on Indian start-up like Zomato, PolicyBazaar, Shoekonect, Ustra, Gramophone
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 5,230

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 5,200.7 4,881.5 6,479.8 16.3 7,812.9 8,912.2 9,812.7 14.8
EBITDA 95.1 98.5 142.4 30.9 148.4 178.2 196.3 11.3
EBITDA Margins (%) 1.8 2.0 2.2 - 1.9 2.0 2.0 -
Net Profit 35.0 77.5 38.4 - 124.6 150.5 166.6 63.0
EPS (|) 20.5 45.3 22.5 - 72.9 88.0 97.4 -
P/E (x) 121.8 55.0 110.8 - 34.2 28.3 25.6 -
RoCE (%) 15.0 14.2 15.4 - 15.4 16.0 15.3 -
RoE (%) 6.5 11.6 -4.7 - 15.1 15.6 14.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key highlights of quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported 4% QoQ & 28.3% YoY growth in revenues posting revenue of | 1,955.1 crore, aided by general staffing revenues, which were up 4.7% QoQ to | 1,783 crore while both specialised staffing & other HR services revenue declined for a consecutive quarter by 2.5% QoQ to | 140.7 crore and 0.4% QoQ to | 30.9 crore, respectively

 

  • EBITDA margins at the company level improved ~30 bps QoQ to 1.6% aided by margin expansion in all verticals. General staffing margins improved 18 bps QoQ at 1.7% while that of specialised staffing & Other HR services improved 44 bps & ~260 bps QoQ to 9.2% & 3.2%, respectively. Total EBITDA increased 25.2% QoQ to | 31.7 crore

 

  • The company indicated the margins in the quarter improved due to lower other expenses. It will focus on margin improvement by operational efficiency, going forward. The company, however indicated that margins of the company will remain under pressure in H2 and it will focus on the following to improve/sustain margins, going forward:

 

a)      Headcount rationalisation: The company indicated that it had increased in hiring the last few quarters with market conditions indicating strong growth but now they are giving a cautious outlook for the next few quarters. TLL is now looking at rationalising its core headcount in Q3 and Q4 wherein it is not backfilling its employees who have left voluntarily

b)     Realisations: The company indicated that its realisations have been flat since Q4FY22 at ~| 700. The company indicated that it executes annual contract with clients with provision for escalation at the time of renewal. It mentioned that it has given discounts during the pandemic on weak client financials. Now since the pandemic is largely over, TLL is trying to recover lost realisations. However, it is facing a pushback from its clients restricting PAPM expansion

c)      Digitisation: The company indicated that since it is looking to rationalise its own headcount, large focus is on automation of some of the processes to improve productivity

d)     Low margin business rationalisation: The company also indicated that it will continue to rationalise client’s profiles with low margins

 

  • The company indicated that a few quarter back, it has witnessed some pent demand in hiring as companies were hiring for growth. However, the demand scenario has changed drastically in the last couple of quarters due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors like ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, higher interest rates, recessionary scenarios in few countries, as well as dried up funding at the start-ups. The company expects these factors to continue to impact hiring for a few quarters from now. It is giving a cautious outlook in the near to medium term

 

  • In general staffing, the management indicated that productivity ratio increased marginally from 350 to 352. The company further indicated that PAPM has remained flat on a QoQ basis, implying that it has remained at levels of Q4FY22. The company’s net additions during the quarter remained soft with 4,709 net new associated taking the total headcounts to 212,969. The company indicated that hiring trends are not encouraging across Tech companies, BFSI, telecom and retail sectors

 

  • In Degree Apprenticeship (DA), the company indicated it added 28 new logos in the quarter and added 2,745 apprentices taking the total headcount to 79,592. TLL indicated that it does not expect much growth in DA program in H2 as the open positions in the DA program are below expectations due to regulatory hurdles it is currently facing. TLL mentioned that on-boarding of new apprentice is being hit by new regulation of their verification through OTP generation on their mobile as well as on emails where they will have to enter this jointly for on boarding. Another regulatory hurdle was stipend payment for them, which used to take within 72 hours. Now, it is getting much delayed to around three months. The company further indicated that it is witnessing sluggish demand in tech, telecom & IT

 

  • Specialised staffing: The company added 14 new logos & will focus on new client acquisitions in H2. TLL indicated that revenue decline in the vertical was due to its strategic decision of discontinuing business with one large client in telecom sector whose margin were below the expectations of the company. The company further indicated that the specialised staffing business was impacted by lower hiring in the IT sector. (impact of 40% drop in IT services business of the company). TLL mentioned that it is trying to mitigate lower IT hiring through non-IT hiring and will focus on utilisation improvement and headcount rationalisation. It expects revenue to remain flattish or decline from Q3 onwards. The company’s net headcount declined by 917 to 8,883 during the quarter

 

  • In other HR services, the company indicated that it is witnessing traction in the vertical and will continue to invest in this business as margins are accretive. The company further indicated that HR services business is cyclical and it expects revenues to pick up soon

 

  • The company indicated that it has received a clear judgement in its petition filed for 80JJAA dispute with the Income Tax department and expects the refund from Income Tax department in a few weeks

 

  • The company indicated that it is actively exploring M&A opportunity in specialised staffing, HR tech & Edtech business, which are margin accretive businesses. The company also indicated that ticket size of the acquisition will be in the band of its previous acquired companies
 
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY23E   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)   Comments 
Revenue 1,955 1,919 1,524 28.3 1,879 4.0 General staffing revenue increased 4.7% while specialised staffing declined 2.5% & other HR services by 0.4%
Employee expenses 1,881 1,842 1,458 29.0 1,806 4.1  
Gross Profit 74 77 65 14.2 74 1.1  
Gross margin (%) 4 4.0 4.3 -47 bps 3.9 -11 bps  
Other expenses 43 50 31 37.8 48 -11.5  
EBITDA 32 27 34 -7.3 25 25.2  
EBITDA Margin (%) 1.6 1.4 2.2 -62 bps 1.3 27 bps Lower other expenses aided margin expansion
Depreciation 10 8 11 -9.4 9 12.2  
EBIT 22 19 23 -6.2 16 32.3  
EBIT Margin (%) 1 1.0 1.5 -41 bps 0.9 24 bps  
Other income 12 6 5 118.9 12 -3.6  
PBT 33 25 28 17.5 29 16.9 PAT was higher due to higher other income
Tax paid 1 1 1   1    
PAT 32 23 -49 -164.1 27 19.2  
Adjusted PAT 32 23 -49 -164.1 24 32.0  

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