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Tata Consumer Products Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,106.3 Chg : -3.90 (-0.35%)
  • Target : 910.0 (17.27%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

06 May 2022

Premium trend in foods, new forays to scale up sales

About The Stock

Tata Consumer Products (TCPL) is one of the major FMCG companies present in tea, coffee & other beverages in India, UK, US, Canada & some other geographies. In India, it also has salt, pulses, spices & other foods products. Its subsidiary NourishCo is present in packaged water & other beverages. The company is in a JV with Starbucks, which has 268 stores in India.

  • The company has 2000+ distribution directly reaching 1.3 million outlets in India. This will be increased to 1.5 million outlets by March 2023
  • TCPL also increased its rural/ semi urban distributors 4x to 8000+ after the consolidation of consumer business
Q4-FY22 Results

TCPL posted strong results with 74.3% earnings growth.

  • Sales were up 4.5% YoY aided by foods business & international beverage
  • EBITDA was at Rs 444.3 crore, up 48% YoY, with margins at 14.0%
  • Consequent PAT was at Rs 239.1 crore (up 74.3% YoY)
What should Investors do?

TCPL’s share price has moved up 5.1x in the last five years (from Rs 152 in May 2017 to 776 in May 2022).

  • We continue to remain positive on TCPL’s strategy of driving premium trend in foods business & foray in large opportunity size categories
  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at Rs 910 on ascribing 52x FY24 earnings multiple.

Key triggers for future price performance
  • TCPL would continue to witness strong margins improvement with dip in tea procurement prices
  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in Salt, Tea, Sampann & Soulful in Indian market expected to drive sales & margins
  • Starbucks is witnessing strong growth with significant improvement in operating margins. Likely to drive profitability
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Dabur in our FMCG coverage.

  • Significant shift in consumption towards healthier, natural & Ayurveda based products & aggressively foray in many big categories would be driving growth for Dabur
  • Value the business at 52x FY24 earnings. BUY with a TP of Rs 680

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR % (FY17 - FY22) FY23E FY24E (Blank) CAGR % (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 9,637.4 11,602.0 12,425.4 12.9 13,633.9 14,954.4 - 9.7
EBITDA 1,292.2 1,543.8 1,718.8 16.8 2,120.5 2,406.9 - 18.3
EBITDA Margin % 13.4 13.3 13.8 - 15.6 16.1 - -
Adjusted Net Profit 641.8 932.6 1,015.2 17.4 1,379.7 1,610.7 - 26.0
EPS (Rs) 5.0 10.1 11.0 8.9 15.0 17.5 - 26.0
P/E 155.4 76.9 70.4 - 51.8 44.4 - -
RoNW % 4.6 6.4 7.0 - 8.8 9.8 - -
RoCE (%) 6.9 8.0 8.4 - 10.3 11.3 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY22 Results: Margins regained; strong growth in Sampann, premium salt, coffee & tea portfolio

  • Revenue witnessed growth of 4.5% to Rs 3175.4 crore on account of cut in tea prices & strong growth in foods business. Tea procurement prices in North India were down 15% YoY. India beverage business de-grew 1% due to price cuts in tea. However, volumes were up by 3%
  • India foods business witnessed growth of 19% with 1% volume decline. The volumes dipped due to high growth in base quarter. Further, the company has increase salt prices by ~20% to Rs 25/kg mainly due to increase in grinding process prices. Also, energy costs have gone up sharply last quarter
  • US coffee sales growth inched up 13% led by 3% volume growth on a low base. On a full year basis, sales were flat with 4% volume decline. Similarly, international tea saw 3% sales growth led by 5% volume growth during the quarter. On a full year basis, revenue increased 1% with 3% volume degrowth. International tea & coffee business is growing at a dismal pace for the last many years
  • Tata Coffee saw 8% revenue growth & 8% volume decline. However, on an annual basis, the business grew 11% led by 19% growth in extraction business. Plantation business saw 3% sales decline due to lower tea outputs. This was partially off-set by growth in coffee & pepper plantation
  • In the last two years, the company has been able to increase its direct reach from 0.6 million retail outlets to 1.3 million retail outlets. It would further expand the direct reach to 1.5 million outlets by March-2023. Also, its overall reach (direct + indirect) has increased from 1.3 million to 2.7 million outlets. The company is well set to achieve its target of total reach of 4.0 million outlets by September 2023
  • E-commerce channel sales contributed 7.3% to sales in FY22 against 2.5% in FY20. E-commerce market share for tea is 41.9% ahead of competition & modern trade business saw 30% growth YoY, crossed Rs 1000 crore sales for the year
  • The company increased its India business advertisement spends by 29%. Tea brands gained market share by 100 bps & salt brands gained market share by 400 bps. TCPL holds 38% market share in salt
  • TCPL is driving premiumisation trend, which is reflected in 28% growth in Sampann, 26% growth in valued added salts & 45% growth in coffee brands (relatively smaller business. The sales contribution from new launches (innovation) has increased to 2x in last one year
  • The opportunity for India tea for exports is limited due to crisis in Sri-Lanka given latter is largely producing orthodox tea. The company does not see tea prices increasing due to global factors. However, good rains are essential for tea production & benign procurement prices
  • Gross margins for NourishCo are similar to tea business. Further, with the possibility of Scale up, NourishCo brands can be margin accretive.
  • TCPL has entered dry-fruits, poha & other categories under Sampann brand with large growth potential. The company expect healthy growth in the brand outpacing overall company growth
  • Starbucks was EBITDA positive during the quarter. The company added 23 & 50 new stores in Q4 & FY22 taking total stores to 268. It was 32% & 76% revenue growth in Q4 & FY22, respectively
  • With the steep decline in tea procurement prices, gross margins expanded 539 bps. The company maintained its advertisement spend at 7.1% of the sales. Further overhead spends were up by 175 bps given the company undertook cost rationalisation measures in base quarter. This led to 48% growth in operating profit to Rs 444.3 crore. Operating margins expanded by 411 bps to 14%. India business segment margin saw 560 bps uptick due to considerable decline in tea prices. International business segment margins were up ~200 bps
  • With the sharp increase in operating profit, stable interest cost, depreciation provisioning & high exceptional expense in base quarter, Net profit saw an increase of 74.3% to Rs 239.1 crore. Loss from associate dipped from Rs 59 crore to Rs 50.2 crore in Q4FY22. We believe scale up of Starbucks stores & recovery from Covid impacted base has resulted in reduction in losses
  • The company has announced final dividend of Rs 6.05 / share for FY22

Terms & conditions and Disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal MBA (FINANCE) Research Analyst, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

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Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

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Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

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