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Tata Consultancy Services Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,859.0 Chg : 27.90 (0.73%)
  • Target : 3,785.0 (15.93%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 Jul 2022

Strong CC growth; weak margins

About the stock

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is one of the leading IT service providers with a presence in BFSI, communication, manufacturing, retail & hi tech.

  • Consistent organic revenue growth and industry leading margins (>25%)
  • Stable management, robust return ratios (>RoCE 40%) & payouts (~70%)
Q1FY23 Results

TCS reported weak margins.

  • CC growth of 3.5% QoQ, 15.5% YoY was better than expected
  • EBIT margins declined ~185 bps QoQ to 23.1% for the quarter
  • The company’s TCV was at US$8.2 billion (bn) at Q1FY23
What should investors do?

TCS’ share price has grown by ~2.8x over the past five years (from ~₹ 1,165 in July 2017 to ~₹ 3,265 levels in July 2022).

We maintain BUY rating on the stock

Target Price and Valuation

We value TCS at ₹ 3,785 i.e. 29x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key triggers for future price performance
  • New organisation structure, which is aimed at increasing customer stickiness is expected to enhance market share gains
  • Increase in outsourcing in Europe, vendor consolidation and deal pipeline leading to revenue CAGR of 12.2% over FY22-24E
  • We expect margins to be under pressure till FY24, resulting in margin contraction of 30 bps in FY22-24E
  • Double-digit return ratios, strong cash generation and healthy payout
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides TCS, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth and healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,745

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 146,463.0 156,949.0 164,177.0 191,754.0 12.9 214,348.4 236,378.5 11.0
EBITDA 39,506.0 42,110.0 46,546.0 53,057.0 13.2 57,659.7 64,294.9 10.1
EBITDA Margins (%) 27.0 26.8 28.4 27.7 - 26.9 27.2 -
Net Profit 31,472.0 32,340.0 32,430.0 38,327.0 9.9 42,114.5 47,706.6 11.6
EPS (|) 83.8 86.2 86.7 104.7 9.9 115.1 130.4 -
P/E 38.8 37.8 37.2 31.2 - 28.4 25.0 -
RoNW (%) 34.4 38.4 37.5 43.0 - 41.9 41.0 -
RoCE (%) 43.8 44.4 45.9 51.4 - 49.2 48.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • TCS reported 1.3% QoQ growth to US$6,780 million (mn) while it grew 10.2% YoY. The company reported 15.5% YoY growth in CC terms for Q1.
  • In terms of revenues by geographies (in CC terms), the North America market (53% of mix), grew 19.1% YoY while UK and Continental Europe reported relatively muted growth of +12.6% and 12.1% YoY, respectively. Asia Pacific, India and MEA regions grew 6.2%, 20.8% and 3.2% YoY, respectively
  • Vertical wise in CC terms, BFSI, retail & grew 13.9% & 25.1% YoY respectively while manufacturing, technology & services grew 16.4% each. Life sciences & media & communication grew 11.9% and 19.6% YoY, respectively
  • As per the management, the demand environment continues to be strong in US while in UK, client’s conversation are largely focuses on high inflation there. As per the management, clients are seeing deeper impact of recession, if it ever happens, in UK, but no moderation in tech spending is visible yet from the region so far
  • LTM attrition continued to inch up, which is at 19.7% (up from 17.4% in the previous quarter). The management sounds cautious on attrition since their commentary suggests that attrition would take few months to settle down and it is expected to cool off only in H2FY23. The company added 14,136 associates in Q1, taking the total to 606331. The management indicated that net adds in Q1 are seasonally low especially on fresher side as lot of fresh graduates go for higher studies
  • On a reported basis, the company’s TCV for the quarter was at US$8.2 bn, which was down 27% QoQ while it was up 1.2% QoQ. However, on like to like basis (adjusted for two large deals of US$1 bn each in Q4FY22 and two large deals of US$400 mn for Q1FY23, TCV was down 20.4% QoQ/8.6% YoY basis. The company indicated that steady state deal win number for the quarter could be in the range of US$7-9 bn, going forward
  • EBIT margin for the quarter was down 185 bps QoQ at 23.1%. There was 150 bps impact due to annual wage increase (The company has given 5-8% wage hike for the employees, top performers got even bigger hikes, 4-5% hike given for onsite employees) while rest was due to higher subcontractor as well as travel costs. The company indicated that the margins are expected to see revival in Q2FY23, the exit margins in Q4FY23 are likely to be around 25%
  • TCS indicated that it is planning to hire 40,000 freshers in FY23, which would help in pyramid optimisation.
  • TCS indicated that the current digital transformation opportunity has three horizons where horizon 1 pertains to moving one’s onsite applications to cloud, which is currently playing out. There are further opportunities, which are termed as Horizon 2 (cloud native application development) and Horizon 3 (end to end ecosystem play for sectors like pharma, manufacturing, etc)
  • The company has rolled out a new organisation structure, which is aligned to a particular phase of their customer journey. Relationship Incubation Group that will provide the high-touch, high engagement, delivery-focused model that new clients require; the Enterprise Growth Group pulls together capabilities from across the different service lines to stitch together solutions that address their clients’ business needs when the relationship is in its hyper growth phase; Business Transformation Group that will manage its largest clients and help it accomplish its growth and transformation objectives
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q1FY23   Q1FY23E   Q1FY22   YoY (%)   Q4FY22   QoQ (%)   Comments 
Revenue (US$ mn) 6,780 6,803 6,154 10.2 6,696 1.3  
Revenue (| crore) 52,758 52,534 45,411 16.2 50,591 4.3 Revenue growth  was broad based. Growth in North America was strong while UK and Continental Europe witnessed moderation
Employee expenses 31,553 30,942 26,240 20.2 29,364 7.5  
               
Gross Margin 21,205 21,591 19,171 10.6 21,227 -0.1  
Gross margin (%) 40.2 41.1 42.2 -202 bps 42.0 -177 bps  
SG&A expenses 7,788 7,775 6,507 19.7 7,382 5.5  
               
EBITDA 13,417 13,816 12,664 5.9 13,845 -3.1  
EBITDA Margin (%) 25.4 26.3 27.9 -246 bps 27.4 -194 bps  
Depreciation 1,231 1,261 1,076 14.4 1,217 1.2  
EBIT 12,186 12,556 11,588 5.2 12,628 -3.5  
EBIT Margin (%) 23.1 23.9 25.5 -242 bps 25.0 -186 bps EBIT margin was declined 186bps, due to annual wage hike (150bps impact) as well as increase in subcontracting and travel expenses
Other income (less interest) 590 700 575 2.6 736 -19.8  
PBT 12,776 13,256 12,163 5.0 13,364 -4.4  
Tax paid 3,257 3,380 3,132 4.0 3,405 -4.3  
Reported PAT 9,478 9,842 9,008 5.2 9,926 -4.5  
Adjusted PAT 9,478 9,842 9,008 5.2 9,926 -4.5  

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

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