loader2
Partner With Us NRI
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,821.4 Chg : -30.85 (-0.80%)
  • Target : 3,720.0 (16.80%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

13 Apr 2023

Near term pain in US market; growth likely to be back ended

About The Stock

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is one of the leading IT service providers with a presence in BFSI, communication, manufacturing, retail & hi tech.

  • Consistent organic revenue growth and industry leading margins (>25%)
  • Stable management, robust return ratios (>RoCE 40%) & payouts (~70%)
Q4FY23 Results:

TCS reported weak Q4FY23 numbers.

  • Reported CC growth of 0.6% QoQ and 10.7% YoY
  • EBIT margin was flat for Q4FY23 at 24.5%
  • Reported strong TCV win of US$10 billion (bn), up 28.2% QoQ
What should Investors do?

TCS’ share price has grown by ~2.2x over the past five years (from ~₹ 1,476 in April 2018 to ~₹ 3,185 levels in April 2023).

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value TCS at ₹ 3,720 i.e. 26x P/E on FY25E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Smooth & healthy transition to new CEO along with continuance of the strategy planned by the company would ensure growth momentum in the medium to long term
  • Increase in outsourcing in Europe, vendor consolidation and deal pipeline leading to rupee revenue CAGR of 7.9% over FY23-25E
  • We expect margins to improve from FY24 onwards due to utilisation improvement and moderation of sub-contractor costs. We build in margin expansion of 80 bps over FY23-25E
  • Double-digit return ratios, strong cash generation and healthy payout
New Stock Ideas

Besides TCS, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth and healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,730

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 year CAGR (FY18-23) FY24E FY25E 2 year CAGR (FY23-25E)
Net Sales 156,949.0 164,177.0 191,754.0 225,458.0 16.3 237,967.5 262,388.5 7.9
EBITDA 42,110.0 46,546.0 53,057.0 59,260.0 16.2 64,013.3 71,107.3 9.5
EBITDA Margins (%) 26.8 28.4 27.7 26.3 - 26.9 27.1 -
Net Profit 32,340.0 32,430.0 38,327.0 42,147.0 13.0 47,435.1 52,352.7 11.5
EPS (|) 86.2 86.7 104.7 115.2 14.3 129.6 143.1 -
P/E 36.8 36.3 30.4 27.7 - 24.6 22.3 -
RoNW (%) 38.4 37.5 43.0 46.6 - 45.6 43.3 -
RoCE (%) 44.4 45.9 51.4 56.0 - 54.6 52.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • TCS reported weak revenue growth of 0.6% QoQ & 10.7% YoY in CC terms due to a weaker-than-expected revenue recovery in the US region during the quarter. In dollar terms, the company reported revenue of US$7,195 mn, up 1.7% QoQ & 7.5% YoY while in rupee terms TCS reported revenue of | 59,162 crore, up 1.6% QoQ & 16.9% YoY
  • Geography wise (in CC terms) for Q4, North America (52.4% of mix) reported tepid growth of 9.6% YoY while the UK region reported strong growth of 17% YoY growth. Continental Europe, India & MEA reported growth of 8.4%, 13.4% & 11.3% YoY, respectively
  • In CC terms, vertical wise, growth was led by retail & CPG (15.6% of mix) and Lifesciences & Healthcare (12.3% of mix) reporting growth of 13% & 12.3% YoY, respectively, while BFSI (31.4% of mix) reported muted growth of 9.1% YoY due to the deferral of discretionary spending & cautious approach by clients on account of a worsening macro environment. Manufacturing, tech & services and communication also reported muted growth of 9.1%, 9.2% and 5.3% YoY, respectively
  • For FY23, in US dollar terms, the company reported revenue of US$27,927 mn, up 8.6% sequentially while in CC terms it reported growth of 13.7%. North America (53.4% of mix) grew 15.3% while UK & Continental Europe grew 15% & 11%, respectively. Vertical wise, in FY23, all verticals reported double digit growth in CC terms with Retail & CPG (15.8% of mix) reporting growth of 19.7% while BFSI (31.7% of mix) grew 11.8%
  • TCS deal wins during the quarter remained strong. It won TCV of US$10 bn, up 28.2% QoQ, down 11.5% YoY. The company also mentioned that TCV included just one large deal of TCV while a majority of deals are in the deal size range of US$50-100 mn, which indicates faster TCV to revenue conversion. TCS further said that BFSI TCV during the quarter was US$3.1 bn & Retail TCV was US$1.3 bn while geography wise US TCV win was also strong at US$5 bn. For FY23, TCS reported TCV of US$34.1 bn. It also won 29 cost optimisation deals during the year compared to 18 deals in FY22
  • TCS reported flat margin growth during the quarter with EBIT margin of 24.5%. The company indicated that its benefits from lower subcontractor cost, cost efficiency & currency gains during the quarter were nullified due to higher onsite employee cost. For FY23, TCS reported an EBIT margin decline of 120 bps to 24.1%. The company indicated that the headwinds were as follows: i) wage hikes -160 bps, ii) supply side challenges -140 bps & iii) increase in travel cost -30 bps mitigated by tailwinds of i) better realisations +50 bps, ii) pyramid optimisation by fresher hiring +50 bps and currency benefits +110 bps. The company further indicated it still aspires to achieve the EBIT margin in the range of 26-28% but it is difficult to comment on whether it can be achieved in FY24 itself or not at this moment
  • The company indicated that Q4 was weak due to uncertainty on the client side resulting in slower decision making. TCS mentioned that if demand deteriorates further, it cannot rule out further pause in few discretionary spend by clients. The company indicated that there was a softness of demand in North America in Q3, which it was hoping would recover in the subsequent quarter. The demand environment did not pick up in Q4 while it had turned incrementally negative. It mentioned that not only banking but other sectors also contributed to this weakness. In North America, BFSI issues had some impact on decision making while weakness was visible in the manufacturing sector as well. The company indicated that US retail sector was also impacted by a high inflationary environment. The company also mentioned that North America Travel Tourism & hospitality sector are also facing headwinds. The company expects the demand environment to be subdued in the near term while growth is expected to return in the medium term, especially in the BFSI segment as the order book continues to be strong and since it does not contain any large deals, revenue conversion could be faster. The new CEO indicated that leadership change does not mean any strategy change since whatever decisions the earlier CEO had taken were largely collective decisions of a core vertical leadership. He also indicated that he will likely tweak the strategy depending on the demand environment

 

  • The company indicated that the UK market continues to show strong growth, which had positively surprised it considering some of the challenges it had gone through in terms of energy constraints in Q3 and Q4. TCS indicated that UK growth is being driven by both private as well as public sector. From a deal perspective, both transformation and cost take out deals were bringing growth in addition to large telecom vertical deal it won in Q3. The company indicated that in the public sector, a new competitive environment is bringing in growth, especially in utility sector as well as in rail sector, which are betting on data & analytics. The company also indicated that its relationship with one of the largest service providers in this segment is helping it to grow in this region. In Continental Europe, the company indicated that different regions behaved differently to the challenges. It will likely continue, going forward, also and may result in balanced growth

 

  • The company indicated that unlike other industries, IT has been disciplined on pricing. This is unlikely to change even in a subdued demand scenario where clients are likely to pay for outcome-based services that it provides. The company indicated it may not have scope for price increase in the near term but ruled out any pricing pressure for existing as well as new bookings. TCS indicated that it will continue to push pricing up wherever there is an opportunity

 

  • The company indicated that subcontractor costs as percentage of sales for the quarter have come down as the company accelerated onsite hiring. Correspondingly, onsite employee expenses have gone up for the quarter. TCS indicated that it has to keep an onsite employee buffer for any demand changes. In case of a demand pick-up, it likes to serve incremental demand through its own employees rather than taking expensive subcontractors for the same. The company said these costs are sticky in nature, which had an impact on margins for the quarter resulting in flat QoQ margin despite positives in terms of pyramid optimisation, better utilisation and attrition moderation. TCS indicated that historically it was at 5-8% of subcontractor costs as percentage of sales and it is still 25% higher than high end. Hence, there is further scope of optimisation of subcontractor costs

 

  • The company indicated generative AI (ChatGPT) is an interesting technology where it has been working on it. TCS also did some pilots at its end. The company also mentioned that this technology has a potential to change the way it delivers software to clients as it is a tool driven organisation. The company also indicated it has generated certain expertise around this technology and is likely to use for future delivery to clients. The company also mentioned that TCS Cognix platform, which helps enterprises accelerate IT infrastructure transformations, enabling greater operational efficiency has TCV of US$1.8 bn
  • LTM attrition of the company continued to moderate. During the quarter, its LTM attrition declined 120 bps QoQ to 20.1%. The company further mentioned that its quarterly attrition declined by 400 bps. It expects attrition to moderate further to its historical average by H2FY24
  • The company’s hiring during the quarter was muted as it reported net additions of 821 employees taking its employees strength to 614,875. For FY24, the company’s net hiring was 22,600. The company further mentioned it had honoured all offers to freshers & during the year onboarded ~46,000 freshers
  • The company, during the quarter, declared a final dividend of | 24 per share taking the total dividend payout for FY23 to | 115 per share
  • TCS also announced it has appointed K Krithivasan, its current BFSI head & CEO designate, as its MD & CEO for a term of 5 years with effect from June 1, 2023. The company further informed that its outgoing CEO Rajesh Gopinathan would still available and help in transition process post June till September 2023
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q4FY23   Q4FY23E   Q4FY22   YoY (%)   Q3FY23   QoQ (%)   Comments 
Revenue (US$ mn) 7,195 7,217 6,696 7.5 7,075 1.7 In CC terms Revenue grew 0.6% QoQ & 10.7% YoY in CC term 
Revenue (| crore) 59,162 59,363 50,591 16.9 58,229 1.6 In YoY CC terms; vertical wise, revenue growth was led by Retail & CPG with 13% growth while BFSI grew by 9.1% and geography wise UK reported growth of 17% while North America grew by 9.6% 
Employee expenses 34,427 34,668 29,364 17.2 33,942 1.4  
               
Gross Margin 24,735 24,695 21,227 16.5 24,287 1.8  
Gross margin (%) 41.8 41.6 42.0 -15 bps 41.7 10 bps  
SG&A expenses 8,962 8,726 7,382 21.4 8,733 2.6  
               
EBITDA 15,773 15,969 13,845 13.9 15,554 1.4  
EBITDA Margin (%) 26.7 26.9 27.4 -71 bps 26.7 -5 bps  
Depreciation 1,285 1,306 1,217 5.6 1,270 1.2  
EBIT 14,488 14,663 12,628 14.7 14,284 1.4  
EBIT Margin (%) 24.5 24.7 25.0 -47 bps 24.5 -4 bps EBIT margin was flat QoQ as the tailwinds of lower subcon cost, cost effieciency & currency benefits were offset by the headwinds of lower revenue & higher onsite cost
Other income (less interest) 903 350 736 22.7 360 150.8  
PBT 15,391 15,013 13,364 15.2 14,644 5.1  
Tax paid 3,955 3,753 3,405 16.2 3,761 5.2  
Reported PAT 11,392 10,846 9,926 14.8 10,846 5.0  
Adjusted PAT 11,392 11,224 9,926 14.8 10,846 5.0  

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Sujay Chavan, MMS Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More