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Tata Consultancy Services Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,979.0 Chg : 57.90 (1.48%)
  • Target : 3,780.0 (18.68%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

17 Mar 2023

Surprise change at top; smooth transition expected…

About The Stock

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is one of the leading IT service providers with a presence in BFSI, communication, manufacturing, retail & hi tech.

  • Consistent organic revenue growth and industry leading margins (>25%)
  • Stable management, robust return ratios (>RoCE 40%) & payouts (~70%)
Event highlights:
  • TCS informed the stock exchanges that its CEO & MD Rajesh Gopinathan decided to step down from the company to pursue his other interests. The board has nominated K Krithivasan as CEO designate with effect from March 16, 2023
  • Mr Krithivasan, has been with TCS for the last 34 years, currently working as President & Global head of BFSI vertical
  • Mr Gopinathan will continue with TCS till September 15, 2023 for a smooth transition and support to his successor
What should Investors do?

TCS’ share price has grown by ~2.3x over the past five years (from ~₹ 1,413 in March 2018 to ~₹ 3,185 levels in March 2023).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value TCS at ₹ 3,780 i.e. 26x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The new organisation structure, which is aimed at increasing customer stickiness, is expected to enhance market share gains
  • Increase in outsourcing in Europe, vendor consolidation and deal pipeline leading to rupee revenue CAGR of 11.0% over FY22-25E
  • We expect margins to improve from FY23 onwards due to utilisation improvement and moderation of sub-contractor costs. We build in margin expansion of 110 bps over FY23-25E
  • Double-digit return ratios, strong cash generation and healthy payout
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from TCS, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth and healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive
  • We have a BUY rating with a target price of ₹ 1,730

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY21-FY24E)
Net Sales 156,949.0 164,177.0 191,754.0 12.9 223,821.6 241,326.3 262,388.5 11.0
EBITDA 42,110.0 46,546.0 53,057.0 13.2 59,088.9 65,882.1 72,156.8 10.8
EBITDA Margins (%) 26.8 28.4 27.7 - 26.4 27.3 27.5 -
Net Profit 32,340.0 32,430.0 38,327.0 9.9 43,346.7 48,815.3 53,173.9 11.5
EPS (|) 86.2 86.7 104.7 9.9 118.5 133.4 145.3 -
P/E 37.6 37.0 31.0 - 27.4 24.4 22.4 -
RoNW (%) 38.4 37.5 43.0 - 42.6 41.5 39.5 -
RoCE (%) 44.4 45.9 51.4 - 50.1 49.3 47.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Event highlights

·       Rajesh Gopinathan (RG) informed that he has decided to step down from his role of MD & CEO to pursue his other interests after completing over 22 years of service with the company. He was appointed as CEO in 2017 for a term of five years. His term was renewed for a further five years in FY22,

·       Prior to his appointment as CEO, he had served as the company’s CFO between 2013 and 2017. The company further informed that Mr Gopinathan will continue till September 15, 2023 for a smooth and efficient transition

·       TCS appointed K Krithivasan (KK) the current BFSI head as the CEO designate. He will be appointed as MD & CEO from the next financial year i.e. FY24

·       KK has been associated with the company for over 34 years having joined the company in 1989 and is currently the head of the BFSI vertical, which is the largest revenue contributing vertical of the company (31.5% in Q3FY23). KK holds a Bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Madras and has a Master’s Degree in Industrial & Management Engineering from IIT Kanpur. Over the last three decades of his association with TCS he has held various leadership roles in delivery, customer relationship management, large program management and sales

 

PPress conference highlights

·       RG indicated that the company has been on a strong footing since he took over. He also indicated that the company registered strong growth of 15% in FY22 and 14.8% in 9MFY23 and has brought the volatility of the pandemic to a fair state. He indicated that the company is looking to achieve a milestone of US$28 bn revenues in FY23. He mentioned that high inflationary environment and other challenges are a part of business cycles and the company continues to aspire to grow in these challenging times

·       RG indicated that he has been discussing on and off with Chandra (Tata Group Chairman N Chandrasekaran) about his aspiration to do different things. He indicated that he made a decision a week ago and communicated the same to the chairman. He also assured that he is available for any help to the new CEO at any point of time, even beyond his last date of September 15, 2023

·       He indicated that he wished to take some downtime once the transition happens and work on some ideas that he is currently contemplating. He also mentioned that it was not appropriate for him to work on those ideas while handling such a big responsibility of being CEO & MD of a large organisation like TCS, which requires more than 100% of his attention

·       RG has indicated that he is open to a role in an advisory capacity in the Tata Group but nothing is on the table as of now

·       On KK’s appointment, RG mentioned that TCS has a culture of transparent conversations and the board has a visibility of the large part of leadership at the company. There have been constant interactions of the chairman with the leadership team. There is a core leadership team of 10-15 people at the TCS level and the chairman knows all of them professionally and personally since they have been part of the company for a long time. He also mentioned that the Chairman is likely to comment further on the same in due course

·       On COO change wherein N Ganapathy Subramaniam the current COO who will likely retire in FY24, he mentioned that there is sufficient time for that event to unfold

·       On the tenure of KK, RG mentioned the retirement age for an executive director is 65 years at TCS and KK has a long runway for the same. He also mentioned that the appointment of the KK as a CEO likely to be for five years

·       On strategy, KK mentioned that he does not see any material change in the strategy, going forward, as the core strategy of the company to stay close to customers and nurture the talent for the next phase of growth remains. He also mentioned that if the market situation changes materially, he will calibrate the strategy as per demand environment

·       He indicated that whenever there is a challenging environment, it provides new opportunities for growth. He also mentioned that he did not see any pause of digital transformation programs from clients as macroeconomic challenges may bring in disturbances for couple of quarters but in the long-term, clients may prompt to spend more on technology. He indicated that he understands some businesses at TCS beyond BFSI well and does not expect challenges in terms of taking inputs from RG to finetune his learnings

  • As far as BFSI vertical is concerned, KK mentioned that there is credible leadership available at this vertical to take over role of BFSI head as and when he moves to the CEO role. He also mentioned that he will discuss with the Chairman and RG on the same in due course and expects smooth transition there. He also mentioned that there are certain non-BFSI leaders in the organisation who are also well versed with this vertical. Hence, a wide talent pool is available for the next leadership

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Sujay Chavan, MMS, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

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Hold: -5% to 15%;

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Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

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