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Tata Communications Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,756.7 Chg : 13.25 (0.76%)
  • Target : 1,610.0 (30.46%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

25 Apr 2022

Margins softness seen; long term potential intact…

About The Stock

Tata Communications (TCOM) is the leading global digital ecosystem enabler.

  • It provides its clientele with state-of-the-art solutions, including a wide range of communication, collaboration, cloud, mobility, connected solutions, network and data centre services
Q4FY22 Results

TCOM reported a soft Q4FY22 performance on margins front

  • Topline came in at Rs. 4263 crore, up 4.7% YoY & up 1.9% QoQ, largely in line with expectations with data revenues (forming ~77% of revenues) up ~7% YoY (up 2.1% QoQ) at Rs. 3301 crore
  • Consolidated EBITDA margin was at 24.5% (down 40 bps YoY and down 135 bps QoQ). The company attributed the decline in EBITDA to higher expenses which are back ended in nature. Data EBITDA margin was at 29.3%, down 290 bps QoQ. The company reported a PAT of Rs. 365 crore, up 22% YoY, aided by higher other income which majorly included tax refunds and interest on the same. There was also sequential decline in net debt by ~Rs. 444 crore QoQ on the back of healthy FCF
What should Investors do?

TCOM’s share price has grown at ~12% CAGR over the past five years.

The company’s strategic growth plan, focused approach and structural improvement in data segment margins has driven multiple re-rating. While deal closures delays have had weakness in revenues, demand outlook is robust in the medium/long term and initial signs of recovery is visible, albeit moderately. Furthermore, stable performance and improved cash flow generation, deleveraging possibilities and improved return ratios bode well for the company. Further growth tailwinds are also likely if the targeted M&A scouting fructify.

With cash flow generation consistency and growth levers like cloud, edge & security, IOT etc., we remain constructive on the company. We lower our margins estimates but believe FY24 margins could surprise positively as revenue growth kick in. We maintain BUY

Target Price Valuation

We value TCOM at a target price of Rs. 1610

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Growth to be driven by platforms viz. a) cloud, edge, security b) next generation connectivity c) NetFoundry d) MOVE & IoT wherein each having robust market size growth potential of 15-25% CAGR in next four to five years
  • We expect ~10.3% revenue CAGR in FY22-24E in the overall data segment, driven by likely acceleration in growth from FY23 onwards. We expect overall margins to be stable at 25.5% in FY24 vs. 25.3% in FY22, with some weakness likely in FY23. Strong cash flows generation to aid deleveraging 
New Stock Ideas

Besides TCOM, we like Bharti Airtel in telecom space

  • A play on superior operating metric amid telecom sector consolidation
  • BUY with a target price of Rs. 860

Key Financial Summary

( Rs Crore) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 yr CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 yr CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 16,525.0 17,068.0 17,100.1 16,724.7 -0.6 18,124.3 19,834.7 8.9
EBITDA 2,745.0 3,289.0 4,260.6 4,226.7 12.1 4,354.8 5,057.8 9.4
PAT -82.0 -86.0 1,250.6 1,481.8 0.3 1,444.6 1,915.6 13.7
EPS (Rs) -2.9 -3.0 43.9 52.0 - 50.7 67.2 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.0 14.2 10.7 10.3 - 9.8 8.1 -
RoCE (%) 7.3 10.6 20.7 26.5 - 25.5 33.4 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlight

Data business Performance

  • Revenue was up 6.9% YoY, 2.1% QoQ at | 3301 crore, reflecting revenue recovery is under way. Digital Platforms, & Incubation services segment of data business witnessed healthy growth. EBITDA was at | 967 crore (up 4.2% YoY and down 7% QoQ) with a margin of 29.3%, down 180 bps YoY and down 290 bps QoQ. For FY22, Data revenues grew 1.4% to | 12,779 crore, led by Traditional and incubation segment, while digital platforms suffered (down 0.8% YoY), amid lower usage based and deal closure delays impacting collaboration revenues.

Guidance

  • The company indicated that it is confident of double digit data revenues. Growth funnel (pre stage of order book) has increased, deal win rate has improved (with more than 50% win in digital segment) and the company has expanded product offerings in next gen connectivity, cloud, etc. It has put feet on street with new hiring and expanded regional leads presence. It, however, trimmed down FY23 margins guidance to low/mid- range of 23-25% vs. higher end earlier as higher travel, retention and admin costs will accrue with reopening of offices. Thus, earnings downgrade is likely by ~19% for FY23, also impacted by higher depreciation. We, however, expect margins to bounce back in FY24, driven by revenue growth recovery

Core connectivity (erstwhile Traditional services) 

  • Revenue for the quarter was up 1.2% YoY and 1.6% QoQ at | 2278 crore. EBITDA margin was at 44.5% (up 60 bps YoY). We note that in the medium term, the company expects to grow in mid-single digits vs. flattish growth expected for the overall market in the segment

Digital platforms & services (erstwhile growth services)

  • Revenue for the quarter came in at | 932 crore, up 5.2% QoQ and 6.7% YoY. For Q4, collaboration revenue was up 7.3% YoY, 3.2% QoQ, while cloud, hosting and security was up 4.7%YoY, down 1.9% QoQ. Next gen connectivity and media revenue was up 37% and 41% YoY, respectively. On annual basis, except Collaboration, all sub-segments within Digital grew in strong double digits for FY22. On    the weakness in the collaboration & CPaaS segment (FY23 de-growth by 18.9% YoY), the company expects SIP revenue to bottom out and MMX has had some new customer wins which should drive recovery ahead. The reiterated that underlying trends are positive for this business, as per the management. EBITDA for the quarter came in at | 68.6 crore, with margins at 7.4%, up 50 bps YoY

Incubation (erstwhile Innovation services)

  • Revenue for the quarter was up 120.9% YoY and 49.1% QoQ to | 80.8 crore, on the back of new deal wins and scale up of usage in existing accounts. EBITDA loss was at | 76.7 crore. The company has historically indicated that                 potential in the incubation segment is huge. It has so far focused on limited use cases in IOT viz. worker safety, material, smart street lighting. Similarly, in the MOVE, only auto with limited connectivity management play was there. Going ahead, with growth in Net Foundry, more use case in MOVE/IOT and newer segments including semiconductor led working with pilot customer, it expects to scale up the overall presence

Transformation services (TCTSL)

  • Revenue (net of inter-segmental eliminations) for the quarter was down 2.2% YoY and up 6.7% QoQ to | 334 crore. The company reported EBITDA of | 7.4 crore vs. losses in previous quarters

Payment solutions (TCPSL)

  • Q4 revenue came in at | 42.5 crore, down 7.4% YoY and 2.3% QoQ. YoY decline was owing to discontinued third party ATM business while business continued to remain impacted due to Covid. Average daily transactions for FY22 were 57 compared to 68 in FY21. It has deployed more than 1000 franchise ATMs across the country as part of it re-invented business strategy. Revenue for the year came in at | 165 crore with an EBITDA of | 15 crore

Voice business:

  • Revenue for the quarter came in at | 537 crore, down 3.8% YoY and down ~3.1% QoQ, on account of a decline in overall voice volume which came in at 3.2 billion (bn) minutes, a decline of ~20% YoY, down ~9.6% QoQ. Realisations were up ~19.7% YoY to |1.68/minute. Voice margins for the quarter came in at 7%, up 60 bps YoY. For the year, Voice revenues at
    | 2286 crore were down 18% with margins at 6.7%, up 50 bps YoY
    .

Capex and Debt:

  • Capex for the quarter was at | 434 crore vs. | 400 crore in Q3. FCF was
    | 611 crore (vs. 682 crore in Q3).    For FY22, capex was at | 1608 crore vs.
    | 1421 crore in FY21. Going ahead, capex guidance was expanded to US$300-325 mn with most of the capex is growth led and for revamping and expanding the undersea cable. The company indicated that it would not shy to increase capex, if the growth trajectory is higher. Net debt at the end of the quarter was | 6745 crore, down by | 444 crore QoQ and | 1041crore YoY, on the back of a better working capital mix and robust operating free cash flow generation The FCF for FY22 stood at | 2819 crore vs. 2840 crore in FY21. Net debt to EBITDA was at comfortable levels of 1.6x vs. 1.7x in Q3. It indicated that it continuously monitors and scan for opportunities to add value and has stepped up in M&A scouting

Dividend policy

  • The company has put in place a new dividend policy of 30-50% of PAT to be paid out. Consequently, this year, the company paid out ~40% of PAT as dividend (dividend/share of | 20.7)

 

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Bhupendra Tiwar, CFA, MBA (Finance) , Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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