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Syngene International Ltd>
  • CMP : 695.0 Chg : -4.15 (-0.59%)
  • Target : 730.0 (15.87%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

01 May 2022

Capex for growth, operating leverage awaited…

About The Stock

Syngene is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation catering mainly to global innovator pharma\chemical companies offering integrated scientific services from early discovery to commercial supply.

  • Syngene serves these players, which outsource some or substantial part of their business in the product development life cycle and operates via full time equipment (FTE) and fee for services (FFS) models
  • Revenue breakup: Discovery services: FTE engagements with high renewability; Dedicated services: Long-term strategic alliances that last usually five years or more, Development and manufacturing: FFS engagements, which increase in volume/scale over time
Q4FY22

Syngene reported upbeat numbers led by Development Services.

  • Revenues grew 15% YoY to ₹ 758 crore
  • EBITDA margins improved 31 bps YoY to 33%
  • Net profit was at ₹ 148 crore (up 7% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Syngene’s share price has grown by ~2x over the past three years (from ~₹ 307 in April 2019 to ~₹ 630 levels in April 2022).

  • Over and above the capex spend of ~ ₹ 2,700 crore in the last five years, the company is still maintaining aggressive capex guidance for FY23 based on the visibility. While this bodes well for future, it will also have implications on the margins and return ratios in the short to medium term. Maintain BUY
Target Price Valuation

We value Syngene at ₹ 730 i.e. 25x FY24E EV/EBITDA 

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The client base has grown from 256 to 420 over FY16-22, and multiple year extension of Amgen, BMS, Baxter contracts makes it well poised to capitalise on growing opportunities globally
  • SynVent, Syngene’s Integrated Drug Discovery (IDD) platform ability to expand business from existing clients and attract new clients
  • Expansion of Biopharma manufacturing business by commissioning cGMP microbial facility and expanding the mammalian cell manufacturing facility
  • Regulatory approvals from regulated markets for Mangalore facility
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Syngene, in CRO/CRAMS space we like Divi’s.

  • Divi’s stays a quintessential play on Indian API/CRAMs segment with its product offering, execution prowess
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 5335

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues (| crore) 1,825.6 2,011.8 2,184.3 2,604.2 16.7 3,027.1 3,653.2 18.4
EBITDA (| crore) 535.8 617.8 671.8 796.1 14.3 908.9 1,157.2 20.6
EBITDA margins (%) 29.3 30.7 30.8 30.6 - 30.0 31.7 -
Adjusted Net Profit (| crore) 330.8 366.1 382.1 426.5 8.2 455.8 620.5 20.6
EPS (|) 8.3 9.2 9.6 10.6 - 11.4 15.5 -
P/E (x) 76.2 61.2 62.2 63.8 - 55.4 40.7 -
RoE (x) 16.8 16.8 13.5 12.9 - 12.3 14.4 -
RoCE (%) 14.8 14.5 11.5 11.7 - 12.2 15.7 -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Robust performance despite GPM pressure

  • Revenue for Q4FY22 grew 15% YoY to ~| 758 crore driven by strong quarter for Development Services as it caught up on postponed projects in addition to planned work. EBITDA margins improved 31 bps YoY to 33% due to lower employee expenditure offsetting the lower gross margins (down 381 bps YoY to 72%). EBITDA grew 16% YoY to | 250 crore. Net profit grew 7% YoY to | 148 crore. Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA is mainly due to higher depreciation being partially offset by lower tax and interest expenses and other income.
  • Research based divisions, Discovery Services and the Dedicated Centres have delivered sustained growth throughout the year, propelling Syngene’s top line to grow 19% YoY in FY22 to | 2604 crore. SynVent, Syngene’s Integrated Drug Discovery (IDD) platform made a significant contribution as the number of IDD projects increased by ~40% YoY. Realisation per scientist (~ 5,300) has increased by 6% YoY to | 49 lakhs. Management is guiding for mid-teen growth and ~ 30% EBITDA margins in FY23. Syngene remains a compelling play in the CRO space with elite client profile and is well positioned for sustainable growth

 

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Growth was driven by solid delivery across all divisions. Development services had a particularly strong quarter as it caught up on projects postponed due to supply chain and other Covid-related disruption, in addition to planned work
  • Phase III of the expansion plan at the Hyderabad research facility was completed
  • Syngene’s Integrated Drug Discovery (IDD) platform, made a positive contribution to Discovery Services during the year as the number of IDD projects increased by 40% compared to the previous year
  • Extended and expanded research collaboration with Amgen. Syngene will also build and operate a dedicated laboratory to accelerate the scale-up of small molecule projects
  • Development and Manufacturing businesses included expanding the biopharma manufacturing capacity by commissioning a cGMP microbial facility and expanding of the mammalian cell manufacturing facility
  • In small molecule development services, the oligonucleotide and highly potent API capabilities were both extended and plans are on track for the Mangalore manufacturing plant to achieve a major regulatory approval thus opening it up to a broader scope of projects

Guidance:

  • Revenues expected to grow at least in the mid-teens in FY23
  • In light of positive demand environment for CRO and CDMO services, Syngene expect to step up investments along with resumption of travel and other business activities post-pandemic is expected to bring EBITDA margin around 30% in FY23
  • With the SEZ tax benefit for key operating units reducing in FY22 and in coming years, Company expects the effective tax rate to increase by 200 to 300 basis points in FY23. MAT credit at | 173 crore. ETR to increase to 25%. PAT growth rate for FY23 expected to be in single digits
  • Capex – FY23: US$100 million (50% - Research, 30% - Biologics)
 
Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 758.1 703.6 658.6 15.1 641.4 18.2   Strong YoY growth led by Development Services as it caught up on postponed projects
Raw Material Expenses 214.8 188.6 161.5 33.0 172.1 24.8    
Gross margins 71.7 73.2 75.5 -381 bps 73.2 -150 bps   YoY incresae due to inflationary environment
Employee Expenses 173.6 207.6 182.6 -4.9 188.8 -8.1   YoY decline due to 1) lack of retirement benefits in Q4 and 2) base of Q4FY21 includes one time bonus
Other Expenditure 119.4 88.2 99.1 20.5 77.1 54.9    
EBITDA 250.3 219.1 215.4 16.2 203.4 23.1    
EBITDA (%) 33.0 31.1 32.7 31 bps 31.7 130 bps   YoY improvement due to due to lower employee expenditure offsetting the lower gross margins
Interest  5.6 9.4 6.6 -15.2 9.4 -40.4    
Depreciation 80.3 77.2 70.0 14.7 78.5 2.3    
Other Income 14.7 14.2 18.4 -20.1 12.9 14.0    
 PBT  179.1 146.7 192.2 -6.8 128.4 39.5    
Tax  31.3 27.9 31.6 -0.9 24.4 28.3    
PAT before MI 147.8 118.8 160.6 -8.0 104.0 42.1    
Net Profit 147.8 118.8 137.8 7.3 104.0 42.1   Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA is mainly due to higher depreciation being partially offset by lower tax, interest expenses and other income.
 
Valuation

Particulers FY24E EBITDA (| cr) Multiple (x) Value (| )
Syngene 1157.2 25.0 28,929.5
Net Debt FY24E (| cr)     -274.21
Targeted MCap (| cr)     29203.67
No of shares (cr)     40
Per Share Value (|)     730.0

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Siddhant Khandekar, Inter CA, Raunak Thakur, PGDM, Kush Mehta, CA, Research Analysts,  authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

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Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

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