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Syngene International Ltd>
  • CMP : 687.3 Chg : -1.90 (-0.28%)
  • Target : 740.0 (16.35%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

27 Apr 2023

Well-rounded growth, upbeat guidance…

About the stock

Syngene is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation catering mainly to global innovator pharma/chemical companies offering integrated scientific services from early discovery to commercial supply.

• Syngene serves these players, which outsource some or substantial part of their business in the product development life cycle and operates via full time equipment (FTE) and fee for services (FFS) models

• Discovery services: FTE engagements with high renewability; Dedicated services: long-term strategic alliances that last usually five years or more, Development and manufacturing: FFS engagements, which increase in volume/scale over time

Q4FY23 Results

In line sales with beat on margins.

• Revenues grew 31.2% YoY to ₹ 994.4 crore

• EBITDA grew 27.2% YoY to ₹ 318.3 crore whereas margins declined 101 bps YoY to 32%

• Net profit during the quarter grew 20.9% YoY to ₹ 178.7 crore

What should Investors do?

Syngene’s share price grew at ~28.33% CAGR over the past three years.

• Upgrade from HOLD to BUY as strong momentum and growth is expected from all three segments.

Key monitorable would be- Zoetis contract execution and developments on the Mangalore facility front

Target Price and Valuation

We value Syngene at ₹ 740 i.e. 22x EV/EBITDA on FY25E EBITDA of ₹ 1307.7 crore.

Key Triggers for future price performance

Regulatory approvals from regulated markets for Mangalore facility (FY24) and continuing traction from Librela manufacturing for Zoetis

• Multiple year extension of Amgen, BMS, Baxter contracts make it well poised to capitalise on growing opportunities globally

• SynVent, Syngene’s Integrated Drug Discovery (IDD) platform’s ability to expand business from existing clients and attract new clients

• Expansion of Biopharma manufacturing business by commissioning cGMP microbial facility and expanding the mammalian cell manufacturing facility

Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Syngene, in our healthcare coverage we like Granules.

• Granules stays a quintessential play on API segment with its product offering, vertically integrated execution process

• BUY with target price of ₹ 355

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23 FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
Revenues (| crore) 2,011.8 2,184.3 2,604.2 16.7 3,192.9 3,692.5 4,359.1 16.8
EBITDA (| crore) 617.8 671.8 796.1 14.3 954.2 1,070.8 1,307.7 17.1
EBITDA margins (%) 30.7 30.8 30.6 - 29.9 29.0 30.0 -
Adjusted Net Profit (| crore) 366.1 382.1 426.5 8.2 464.3 533.9 716.9 24.3
EPS (|) 9.2 9.6 10.6 - 11.6 13.3 17.9 -
P/E (x) 53.4 62.8 64.4 - 54.9 47.8 35.6 -
RoE (x) 16.8 13.5 12.9 - 12.8 13.0 14.9 -
RoCE (%) 14.5 11.5 11.7 - 13.8 14.2 16.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY23 Results: Revenues in line with beat on margins…

• Revenues grew 31.2% YoY to | 994.4 crore in Q4FY23. This was largely driven by its integrated services and execution capabilities, which led to such a robust performance across all its divisions

• On the segmental front, discovery services and its dedicated centres showed steady growth on the back of decent demand. The performance from development services division was supported by repeat orders, which showed increased customer stickiness. This was on the back of its ability to provide high and on-time service delivery. Its manufacturing services were supported by commercial-scale biologics manufacturing business in partnership with Zoetis

• GPM came at 70.5% during the period, lower than the normal range of 72- 73% due to higher manufacturing mix and higher consumables charges. On operational front EBITDA grew 27.2% YoY to | 318.3 crore whereas margins declined 101 bps YoY to ~32%. Net profit during the quarter grew 20.9% YoY to | 178.7 crore

• Going ahead, Syngene’s revenue mix is expected to showcase visible shift towards development and manufacturing business, with manufacturing starting to play a more prominent role. We believe Syngene remains a compelling play in the CRO space with elite client profile and is well positioned for sustainable growth

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

• The management has guided for high-teens constant currency sales growth and ~30% EBITDA margins for FY24

• Increased shift towards manufacturing led to higher consumption of consumables impacting the margins during the quarter. Also, rise in hiring of number of scientists and step up in business travel and promotion activities drove up the costs, to some extent

• Translation loss on foreign currency loans showed higher finance costs

• The companys focus remains on investing in new infrastructure, technology, capability-building and talent development

• At its Bengaluru location, it opened a sterile fill-finish facility, which is projected to increase the end-to-end capability of development services

• It established a specialised proteolysis-targeting chimaeras (PROTACs) laboratory in Hyderabad for its customers working on cancer therapies and other therapeutic fields

• The companys plan on changing its supplier mix with focus more on suppliers outside of China remains on track

• It witnessed successful regulatory inspections by US, European and UK regulatory authorities

• Some of the companys units moved out of the SEZ region during the year, which resulted in a higher effective tax rate

• During the year, it had proposed overall capex of ~$100 mn of which $30 mn is committed where projects are under execution

• Emerging biopharma players’ contribution continues to improve in the overall sales pie

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Siddhant Khandekar -Inter CA, Kushal Shah -CFA L1, CFP, Utkarsh Jain, MBA Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

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Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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