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Suven Pharmaceuticals Ltd>
  • CMP : 659.7 Chg : 12.90 (1.99%)
  • Target : 530.0 (9.96%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

09 Aug 2022

CRAMs continue to deliver, outlook stable…

About The Stock

Dedicated CRAMs supports the global life sciences industry and fine chemical majors in their NCE development endeavours. Its services include custom synthesis, process R&D, scale-up & contract manufacturing.
• In FY22, CRAMs Pharma vertical contributed 59% of sales. Besides CRAMs Pharma, Suven has also has developed & supplied intermediates/technical for specialty chemicals CRAMs, which accounted for 35% of sales
• Suven is currently on a three pronged investment plan, 1) relocating R&D centre, 2) replacement and upgradation of blocks at Suryapet facility and 3) additional new block in line with FDA regulations at Pashamylaram facility

Q1FY23

Strong Q1 numbers driven by strong traction in both Spec Chem and Pharma CRAMs.
• Sales were up 28% YoY to ₹ 339 crore
• EBITDA was at ₹ 151 crore, up 32% YoY with margins at 44.5%
• Consequent PAT was at ₹ 107 crore (up 2% YoY)

What should Investors do?

Suven’s share price has grown by ~1.5x over the past two years (from ~₹ 330 in August 2020 to ~₹ 480 levels in August 2022).
• We maintain HOLD as strong CRAMs franchisee notwithstanding, expansion in formulations may bring its own set of challenges

Target Price and Valuation

Valued at ₹ 530 i.e. 30x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 17.6.

Key Triggers for future price performance

• Focus on research by global innovators has intensified post Covid and augurs well for pharma CRAMS operations that remains a key growth driver
• CDMO: Progress of molecules across the development journey and high-value, high-margin business, involving the commercial supply of intermediates (for five molecules) to clients
• Spec-Chem: Developed intermediates for three global agrochemical majors. Ongoing development of fourth intermediate expected in 12-18 months
• Formulations: Supplies from OSD facility of Casper Pharma and subsequent operational performance in ramping up filings in this segment

Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Suven, in our coverage we like Syngene.
• Syngene with years of experience in operating in the niche of CRO/CRM the company is well poised to capitalise on growing opportunities globally.

• BUY with a target price of ₹ 710

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 2 year CAGR (FY20-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues - 833.8 1,009.7 1,320.2 25.8 1,372.6 1,560.3 8.7
EBITDA - 384.8 442.4 579.4 22.7 601.0 624.1 3.8
EBITDA margins (%) - 46.1 43.8 43.9 - 43.8 40.0 -
Net Profit - 317.0 362.3 453.8 19.6 432.5 449.3 -0.5
EPS (|) - 12.5 14.2 17.8 - 17.0 17.6 -
PE (x) - 38.7 33.9 27.0 - 28.4 27.3 -
EV to EBITDA (x) - 32.2 27.6 20.4 - 19.4 18.4 -
RoE (%) - 37.5 30.7 29.7 - 23.0 20.0 -
RoCE (%) - 35.6 31.2 37.5 - 28.7 25.0 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Robust margins amid CRAMS growth
• Revenues grew 28% YoY to | 339 crore, driven by 37% YoY growth in CRAMS-Pharma to | 210 crore and 38% YoY growth in CRAMS-Spec Chem to | 117 crore. EBITDA margins improved 108 bps YoY to 44.5%, mainly due to higher gross margins (up 43 bps to 71.3%). EBITDA grew 32% YoY to | 151 crore while PAT was up 2% YoY to | 107 crore. Delta vis-a-vis EBITDA was due to higher tax expense
• Suven’s quarterly revenues were in line with I-direct estimates while margins were better than expected. For Suven, CRAMS-Pharma remain a high-value, high-margin business, involving the supply of intermediates for NCEs. However, on a Covid-led high base of FY22 and gradual transformation of big pharma from Covid to non-Covid investments, FY23 is likely to be a steady year. CRAMS in Spec-Chem is expected to ramp up in FY24 with likely repeat business in the third molecule and another new molecule in late development stage. In formulations, the management is guiding for operationalisation of Casper Pharma from March, 2023 and achieving ~ | 300-400 crore topline by FY25. Suven is investing | 600 crore for modernisation, technology upgradation, which likely stems from the need to cater to the changed priorities and requirements of its clients, the benefits from this may be visible in the long run. However, we continue to emphasise on the company’s foray into formulations with Casper Pharma, in a highly competitive space of generic OSD in US with diminishing returns

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights
• CRAMS-Pharma: In FY22, Suven achieved ~ | 120 crore of topline through Covid opportunity as a molecule was repurposed for Covid. In Q1FY23, there was some Covid sales, which is likely to be absent in the rest of the FY23. The management is indicating that FY23 is a transformative year for big pharma companies as they gradually step up investments from Covid to non-Covid molecules. The company expects to fill a lost Covid opportunity of FY22 through organic growth in FY23
• CRAMS Specialty Chem: The third molecule that was commercialised by Suven in FY22 will witness repeat volumes post 12-18 months
• Formulations: In Q1FY23, formulations sales: | 9 crore vs. | 11 crore in Q1FY22. Suven ANDAs (filed: 20, approved:10, launched: 10, FY23E filings: seven to eight); Casper ANDAs (filed: four, FY23E filings: 10). Casper completed USFDA inspection with zero observations. The management is expecting to resume operations from March, 2023. The company has guided for | 300-400 crore revenues from formulations by FY25
• Capex guidance for FY23 and FY24: | 250 crore. About | 200 crore for Suryapet facility work to begin and most of the spend will be incurred this year. About | 200 crore for R&D centre relocation work in two to three years and | 200 crore for additional block at Pashamylaram from FY24

Disclaimer

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