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  • CMP : 3,345.2 Chg : -60.60 (-1.78%)
  • Target : 2,175.0 (21.64%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

26 Jul 2022

Piping segment drives overall volume growth…

About The Stock

Supreme Industries (SIL) is India’s leading plastic processing company with a presence in four major segments including piping systems, packaging products, industrial products & consumer product category with revenue contribution of 67%,15%, 14% & 4%, respectively.

  • Market leader in the PVC pipe industry with a value market share of 15%
  • Robust balance sheet with RoE & RoCE of 24% & 27% (five-year average), respectively, with stringent working capital policy
Q1FY23 Results

Strong revenue growth; Inventory losses drags EBITDA margin

  • SIL reported revenue growth of ~64% YoY to ₹ 2557 crore led by ~53% volume growth. Strong volume growth is attributable to favourable base. Piping segment volume, value up by 65%, 76% YoY respectively
  • Gross margins came in lower by 900 bps YoY (down 144 bps QoQ) due to inventory losses amid sharp fall in PVC prices. Savings in employee costs & other expenses restricted EBITDA margins fall to 435 bps YoY at ~12%
  • PAT up by 26% YoY to ~₹ 214 crore, tracking higher sales
What should Investors do?

SIL’s share price has grown at ~10% CAGR over the past five years.

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price & Valuation

We value the stock at 25x P/E FY24E EPS and revise our target price to ₹ 2175.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The government’s flagship ‘Nal Se Jal’ scheme (with an outlay of ~₹ 3 lakh crore over the next five years) is a big booster for domestic plastic piping industry over the long term
  • Rising contribution of value added product in overall topline (increased from 35% in FY18 to ~38% in FY22) to keep EBITDA margin elevated
  • The company is planning a capex of ₹ 700 crore in FY23E to increase manufacturing facility by 11% YoY to ~8 lakh tonnes
  • Model revenue CAGR of 11% led by piping segment revenue CAGR of 12% 
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Polycab India in our coverage. Polycab is the market leader in the wire & cable business with organised market share of 22%-24%. In the FMEG segment, it is growing through new product launches and dealer addition across India. Robust b/s with a 3-year average RoE, RoCE of 18%, 22%, respectively

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2680

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 5,612.0 5,511.5 6,357.1 7,772.8 11.7 8,593.3 9,589.6 11.1
EBITDA 784.6 834.5 1,284.3 1,242.1 10.3 1,249.9 1,435.8 7.5
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.0 15.1 20.2 16.0 - 14.5 15.0 -
Net Profit 448.6 467.4 978.1 968.5 17.7 978.7 1,104.5 6.8
EPS (|) 35.3 36.8 77.0 76.2 - 77.1 87.0 -
P/E (x) 50.6 48.6 23.2 23.5 - 23.2 20.6 -
Price/Book (x) 10.5 10.0 7.2 5.9 - 5.6 5.0 -
Mcap/Sales (x) 4.0 4.1 3.6 2.9 - 2.6 2.4 -
RoE (%) 18.7 20.7 30.9 25.2 - 23.9 24.1 -
RoCE (%) 25.0 22.2 33.1 25.9 - 24.2 24.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Piping segment drives overall revenue growth

  • On a favourable base, SIL reported a strong revenue growth of ~64% YoY to | 2206 crore in Q1FY23, led by ~53% volume growth. On a three-year basis, consolidated revenue grew at a CAGR of 15% led by piping segment revenue CAGR of 18%.
  • In Q1FY23, Piping segment revenue growth came in at 76% YoY to | 1463 crore led by 65% volume growth. Strong volume growth in the piping segment was supported by favourable base and revival in agri demand. The CPVC piping demand remained strong with digit volume growth in Q1.
  • Other three segments i.e. packaging, industrial and consumer product segments also witnessed strong demand traction in Q1FY23. Packaging and industrial segment reported revenue growth of ~34% and ~52%, to | 326 crore and | 302 crore, respectively. Consumer product revenue almost doubled to | 96 crore on a YoY basis
  • Gross margin declined by 900 bps YoY mainly due to inventory losses amid sharp correction in the PVC prices. However, savings in employee cost and other costs restricted overall EBITDA margin fall at 435 bps YoY to 12.2%.
  • Segment wise, EBIT margin of piping segment declined by 600 bps YoY to 11%. Industrial and consumer product segment margin increased by 300 bps and 1100 bps YoY to 9% and 11% respectively. Packaging segment EBIT margin remained flat at 7%
  • PAT up by 26% YoY to ~| 214 crore; tracking strong sales growth in Q1

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Plastic piping system 

  • The overall plastic piping market is ~| 40,000 crore and SIL has ~15% value market share in the organized segment 
  • The management has given piping segment volume growth guidance of ~16-17% YoY in FY23 supported by demand revival from both agri and housing sector. The management expects demand revival to start from September’22 with stabilising PVC prices
  • Raw material prices have seen a reduction between 13%-32% since April 2022, this reduction is expected to result into inventory losses in Q2FY23 as well 
  • The company will make Capex of ~| 300 crore for its piping business every year 
  • The Company has augmented its offering in Plumbing Systems by introducing PEX plain pipes and PEX composite pipes which are ideal pipe systems to carry hot water
  • The company’s Guwahati plant has started commercial production from 1st July 2022 and its units at Cuttack and Erode are likely to start production by September/October 2022 
  • SIL’s new products Olefin fittings & Electrofusion fittings have received positive response in “Nal Se Jal” scheme which Govt. has committed to implement throughout the country by 2024.

Industrial products 

  • In Q1FY23, industrial segment revenue growth came in at 52% YoY led by ~36% volume growth. The strong growth was led by material handling and consumer appliances segment  
  • The material handling division has added new customers and plans to enlarge its customer base and product portfolio 


 

Packaging products 

  • Packaging segment reported 12% volume growth and 34% value growth to |326 crore led by strong demand for consumer products, sports goods, yoga mats and kids’ toys 
  • On the protective packaging division front, SIL is seeing a rise in exports and is receiving good response from countries in the Middle East, Africa and Europe 
  • The management believes that due to higher demand in this segment, it will be running at full capacity and will have to envisage expansion plans for this segment
  • Sales of cross laminated film products remained impacted due to competition from unorganized products  

Consumer products (furniture) 

  • The company is the market leader in the premium range of plastic furniture and is planning to launch various new models in this segment, going forward. SIL has ~1300 pan India distributors 
  • For Q1FY23, consumer product segment reported revenue growth of ~100% YoY to | 96 crores and sales volume increased by 77% YoY to | 3731 crore led by higher demand 
  • EBIT for this segment rose ~10x YoY to | 11 crore   

Others 

  • The company maintained its guidance of overall volume growth of 15% YoY led by piping segment and EBITDA margin of 15%-16% in FY23. The company sees long term volume growth in the range of 11-12% 
  • Demand for CPVC is robust and the company has gained market share in Q1FY23. According to the management, the total market share for CPVC products is more than 20%. The company saw double digit growth in CPVC and anticipates similar growth in the remaining 3 quarters of FY23 
  • There will be inventory losses in Q2FY23 due to significant correction in raw material prices. However, due to lowering PVC prices, the company expects better demand from September 2022 onwards. As a result, better performance is expected in Q3FY23 and Q4FY23 
  • The company’s current inventory cycle is at 30-45 days in order to ensure adequate supply 
  • The company has an optimistic demand outlook due to better performance in exports, strong monsoon season, better grain harvests and anticipation of declining inflation 
  • The company is planning to launch new products in the premium range of plastic furniture segment in FY23 to drive demand 
  • SIL has received repeat as well as new orders for its LPG cylinders and supplies against order from Indian Oil has commenced. The division is running at full capacity
  • The company’s Capex plan of | 700 crore for FY23 is running smoothly and is being funded from internal accruals of the company. SIL plans to make Capex of ~| 500 crore every year, out of which ~| 300 crore will be dedicated for the plastic piping segment
Variance Analysis
  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 2,206.0 1,963.2 1,342.1 64.4 2,557.1 -13.7   Favourable base and strong volume growth (of 53% YoY) drives topline growth
Other Income 4.6 0.6 4.3 5.3 8.6 -47.1    
Raw Material Exp 1,589.9 1,393.9 837.0 90.0 1,806.2 -12.0   Gross margin declined by 900 bps YoY mainly due to inventory loss
Cost of traded goods 32.5 29.4 29.2 11.3 37.7 -13.6    
Employee Exp 91.0 78.5 80.3 13.3 90.4 0.6    
Other expenditure 223.7 176.7 173.6 28.9 231.4 -3.3    
EBITDA 268.9 284.7 222.0 21.1 391.4 -31.3    
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.2 14.5 16.5 -435 bps 15.3 -312 bps   Savings in employee costs and other expenses limited the overall fall in EBITDA margin
Depreciation 61.7 58.9 56.1 9.9 58.8 4.9    
Interest 1.6 2.5 2.1 -23.5 1.9 -13.3    
PBT 210.2 223.9 168.1 25.0 339.3 -38.1    
Total Tax 54.3 57.8 43.0 26.4 85.1 -36.2    
Profit from associates 58.0 47.3 45.0 28.8 69.6 -16.7   Sharp jump in profit from associcate is led by higher profit from Surpeme Petrochem
PAT 213.9 213.4 170.2 25.7 323.9 -34.0   PAT growth is attributable to strong topline growth
Key Metrics                
Plastic Piping 1,463.0 1,246.9 831.0 76.1 1,800.0 -18.7   A favourable base and strong demand of PVC pipes from agriculture segments drives Piping volume up by 65% YoY
Packaging Products 326.0 322.0 244.0 33.6 319.0 2.2   Segment volume up by ~12% YoY on a favourable base and strong demand of performance and protective packaging products. However Cross Laminated Film products was impacted due to increased competition from unorganzied players
Industrial Products 302.0 267.1 199.0 51.8 300.0 0.7   Segment volume were up by 36% YoY led by strong demand from consumer durable segments and customer addition in the material handling segments
 Consumer Products           96.0           106.1       48.0 100.0     118.0 -18.6    Strong growth on a favourable base 

Disclaimer

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