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  • CMP : 3,273.1 Chg : -47.20 (-1.42%)
  • Target : 3,200.0 (17.69%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

30 Apr 2023

Upbeat performance…

About The Stock

Supreme Industries (SIL) is India’s leading plastic processing company with a presence in four major segments including piping systems, packaging products, industrial products & consumer product category with revenue contribution of 66%,14%, 15% & 5%, respectively.

  • Market leader in the PVC pipe industry with a value market share of 15%
  • Robust balance sheet with RoE & RoCE of 23% & 25.5% (five-year average), respectively, with a stringent working capital policy
Q4FY23 Results

Margin expansion drives profitability.

  • SIL reported revenue growth of ~1.6% YoY to ~₹ 2598 crore led by ~15% volume growth. Piping segment volume was up 16% led by strong demand from agriculture and infra segment
  • Gross margin up by 559 bps YoY led by inventory gains and stable PVC prices. As a result, EBITDA margin was up 318 bps YoY to 18.5%
  • PAT grew 11% YoY to ₹ 359.4 mainly due to EBITDA margin expansion
What should Investors do?

SIL’s share price has gone up by ~2x over the past five years (from ₹ 1337 in April 2018 to ₹ 2719 in April 2023).

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock

Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at 32x P/E FY25E EPS and revise our target price to ₹ 3200.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The government’s flagship ‘Nal Se Jal’ scheme (with an outlay of ~₹ 3 lakh crore over the next five years) is a big booster for the domestic plastic piping industry over the long term
  • Rising contribution of value added product in overall topline (increased from 35% in FY18 to ~37% in FY23) to keep EBITDA margin elevated
  • The company is planning a capex of ₹ 750 crore in FY24E to increase manufacturing capacity to ~9.5 lakh tonnes
  • Model revenue CAGR of 15.7% led by ~15% volume CAGR over FY23-25E
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Polycab India in our coverage.

  • Polycab is the market leader in the wire & cable business with organised market share of 22-24%. In the FMEG segment, it is growing through new product launches and dealer addition across India. Robust b/s with a three-year average RoE, RoCE of 18%, 22%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3380

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 Year CAGR (18-23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (23-25E)
Net Sales 5,511.5 6,357.1 7,772.8 9,201.6 13.1 10,455.1 12,323.5 15.7
EBITDA 834.5 1,284.3 1,242.1 1,199.7 8.8 1,483.5 1,774.4 21.6
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.1 20.2 16.0 13.0 - 14.2 14.4 -
Net Profit 467.4 978.1 968.5 865.3 15.0 1,056.5 1,252.1 20.3
EPS (|) 36.8 77.0 76.2 68.1 - 83.2 98.6 -
P/E (x) 73.9 35.3 35.7 39.9 - 32.7 27.6 -
Price/Book (x) 15.3 10.9 9.0 7.8 - 7.7 6.7 -
Mcap/Sales (x) 6.3 5.4 4.4 3.8 - 3.3 2.8 -
RoE (%) 20.7 30.9 25.2 19.7 - 23.5 24.4 -
RoCE (%) 22.2 33.1 25.9 21.2 - 26.1 27.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY23 Results: Stable raw material prices, inventory gains drive margins

  • SIL reported revenue growth of ~1.6% YoY to ~| 2598 crore in Q4FY23, led by ~15% volume growth. Revenue growth was led by better volume offtake across segments
  • Segment wise piping segment (~68% of consolidated revenue) reported flattish revenue YoY at ~| 1771 crore, led by volume growth of 16%. Volume growth is attributable to robust demand from agriculture, housing and infra sector
  • Industrial segment (14% of consolidated revenue) also reported strong revenue growth of ~23% YoY to | 368.7 crore led by ~20% YoY volume growth on a favourable base and higher demand from home appliances and white goods sector. Packaging segment reported marginal volume and value growth of 3% and 1% YoY, respectively, to | 323 crore on the back of new product launches. The consumer products segment reported volume decline of ~2% YoY but revenue grew 3% YoY to | 121 crore led by expansion into newer markets and launch of new products
  • Gross margin expanded 559 bps YoY, due to stabilising prices and inventory gains in Q4. EBITDA margin up 318 bps YoY to 18.5% tracking higher gross margins and better operating leverage
  • PAT grew 11% YoY to | 359.4 crore mainly due to EBITDA margin expansion

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Plastic piping system

  • SIL is witnessing strong demand in the piping segment led by agriculture, infrastructure and housing sector
  • The company has produced PE, AL, PE pipe for house service connections. These type of pipes are now part of house connection design approved for “Nal se Jal” scheme. The compression type fittings for these pipes are also developed to offer complete system of PE/AL/Pe Pipes applications
  • The company has started manufacturing piping products at one more plant at South zone in Erode (Tamil Nadu) since December, 2022, in addition to its existing plant at Jadcherla in Telangana in order to strengthen its presence in southern India
  • SIL plans to double the capacity of PVC pipes at its Erode facility and also start manufacturing DWC Pipes and blow moulded water tanks at Erode during this year

Industrial products

  • Under this segment, the management is continuously working on its endeavour to expand the customer base and is witnessing better demand led by home appliances and white goods sector
  • The company has received an order from Electronics Corporation of India (ECIL) for manufacturing EVM and VVPAT related parts and sub-assemblies
  • In FY23, SIL’s composite cylinder division was running at 90% of its capacity and fulfilled its supply commitments. The company has supplied 4.72 lakh cylinders in aggregate till March, 2023 to IOCL against the LoI for supply of 7.35 lakh cylinders. The company expects further orders from IOCL during the year and also aims to continue to expand its geographical reach to other countries

Packaging products

  • The company has introduced several new made up products from XF film and was successful in acquiring customers by entering in additional world markets. Exports grew 12% YoY in FY23 with a presence in 32 countries across the globe.
  • In the performance films division, SIL expects to achieve volume and value growth in this business in the current year due to increase in customer base in India and abroad
  • Under the protective packaging front, the company is closely working with customer/end users and developing new applications for varied industries. This management aims to focus on volume growth, do value engineering and adopting new technologies in manufacturing to drive improved profitability in this division. The company is witnessing continuous growth in Defence, Export and Insulation business

Consumer products (furniture)

  • According to the management, this segment has grown more than the industry in FY23 led by intensive marketing effort, consistent business policies, launching of new range of furniture, increase in coverage of uncovered markets and strong brand positioning

Margins

  • The company incurred inventory gain of | 70 crore in Q4. However, net inventory loss was | 180 crore in FY23 due to volatility in PVC prices
  • According to the management, PVC prices have now stabilised
  • The management has guided for 13.5-14% EBITDA margin in FY24, lower than its previous margin guidance of 15%
  • The management expects packaging segment margins to improve to 13-14% in FY24

Others

  • The management has guided for | 11,000 crore revenue for FY24.
  • The company incurred a capex of | 398 crore during the year in the plastic piping division at its various plants to build higher capacities, increased range and commissioning of three greenfield projects at Guwahati (Assam), Erode (Tamil Nadu)and Cuttack (Odisha). All three greenfield plants have gone into production during the year
  • SIL has envisaged a capex of | 750 crore for FY24 including carry forward capex of | 153 crore
  • SIL’s distribution network has grown to 1443 in FY23 vs. 1250 channel partners in FY22. The company plans to add 100 more channel partners in FY24
  • The total capacity of the company will increase to 9.5 lakh tonnes in FY24 vs. 8 lakh tonnes currently

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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