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  • CMP : 3,371.6 Chg : 30.70 (0.92%)
  • Target : 2,880.0 (18.52%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

25 Jan 2023

Strong volume growth, margin recovery on track

About The Stock

Supreme Industries (SIL) is India’s leading plastic processing company with a presence in four major segments including piping systems, packaging products, industrial products & consumer product category with revenue contribution of 63%,16%, 16% & 5%, respectively.

  • Market leader in the PVC pipe industry with a value market share of 15%
  • Robust balance sheet with RoE & RoCE of 24% & 27% (five-year average), respectively, with stringent working capital policy
Q3FY23 Results

Strong volume growth, sequentially sharp recovery in margin.

  • SIL reported revenue growth of ~19% YoY to ~₹ 2311 crore led by ~51% volume growth. Piping segment volume, value were up 82%, 31% YoY, respectively, on a favourable base
  • Gross margins up 554 bps QoQ (down 326 bps YoY) due to subsiding inventory losses amid stable PVC prices in Q3. As a result, EBITDA margin was up 608 bps QoQ (down 321 bps YoY) to 13.1%
  • PAT at ₹ 210 crore recovered sharply (up ~2.6x QoQ) but declined ~15% tracking lower EBITDA margin and fall in profit from associates
What should Investors do?

SIL’s share price has gone up by ~1.95x over the past five years (from ₹ 1250 in January 2018 to ₹ 2430 in January 2023).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at 28x P/E FY25E EPS and revise our target price to ₹ 2880.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The government’s flagship ‘Nal Se Jal’ scheme (with an outlay of ~₹ 3 lakh crore over the next five years) is a big booster for the domestic plastic piping industry over the long term
  • Rising contribution of value added product in overall topline (increased from 35% in FY18 to ~38% in FY22) to keep EBITDA margin elevated
  • The company is planning a capex of ₹ 700 crore in FY23E to increase manufacturing facility by 15% YoY to ~8.3 lakh tonnes
  • Model revenue CAGR of 14% led by ~17% volume CAGR over FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Polycab India in our coverage.

  • Polycab is the market leader in the wire & cable business with organised market share of 22-24%. In the FMEG segment, it is growing through new product launches and dealer addition across India. Robust b/s with a three-year average RoE, RoCE of 18%, 22%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3380

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Yr CAGR (22-25E)
Net Sales 5,511.5 6,357.1 7,772.8 11.7 9,261.2 10,069.7 11,541.3 14.1
EBITDA 834.5 1,284.3 1,242.1 10.3 1,152.6 1,543.5 1,867.2 14.6
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.1 20.2 16.0 - 12.4 15.3 16.2 -
Net Profit 467.4 978.1 968.5 17.7 811.1 1,075.2 1,283.7 9.8
EPS (|) 36.8 77.0 76.2 - 63.9 84.6 101.1 -
P/E (x) 66.0 31.6 31.9 - 38.1 28.7 24.0 -
Price/Book (x) 13.7 9.7 8.0 - 7.9 7.0 6.1 -
Mcap/Sales (x) 5.6 4.9 4.0 - 3.3 3.1 2.7 -
RoE (%) 20.7 30.9 25.2 - 20.7 24.5 25.4 -
RoCE (%) 22.2 33.1 25.9 - 22.5 28.0 29.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlight

  • The company has introduced new products in the cross laminated films division and has acquired new customers in four countries. The management expects volume growth to be in the same range as last year but with improved profitability
  • The management expects good growth in cross laminated films led by moulded items and growth in export markets
  • On the protective packaging division front, the company has witnessed growth in defence, export and insulation business
  • On the performance packaging films front, the company is continuously focusing on entering new category in the export market and increase the customer base

Consumer products (furniture)

  • This segment reported 8% YoY volume growth in 9MFY23. The company aims to add several varieties of premium products in this division

Margins

  • The prices of various polymers used by the company such as polypropylene, LDPE and polyvinyl chloride are recently witnessing an upward trend after bottoming out. The prices reduced between | 41/kg and | 66/kg since the start of FY23 until November 2022 and have now started marching upwards from December 2022 onwards
  • The major price reduction was in PVC resin, which resulted in inventory losses. The inventory loss was ~| 230 crore in H1FY23. The company also incurred some inventory losses in Q3FY23, which was partially recovered in December 2022
  • Due to inventory losses, the plastic piping margin came in at 13.49% in Q3FY23, which is 2% lower than the margin the company could have achieved if there were no inventory losses
  • The management expects double digit margins in the packaging division in FY24

Others

  • The management has increased its guidance of overall volume growth to 25% YoY vis-a-vis 20% earlier led by piping segment volume growth of 35% YoY. The management expects a turnover of upwards of | 9000 crore and EBITDA margin in the range of 12.5% for FY23
  • Supreme’s composite LPG cylinder division’s existing production line is running at full capacity and primarily catering to orders received from Indian Oil Corporation
  • The new land for composite LPG cylinders has been commissioned and doubling of capacity has been completed. The management expects full production to start from February 2022
  • The company’s capex plan of | 700 crore for FY23 including carry forward commitment of | 280 crore is progressing with a little delay from the envisaged schedule. The entire capex is being funded from internal resources
  • CPVC volumes grew 32% YoY in 9MFY23
  • The management has guided for capacity addition of ~90,000 MT in FY23. The capacity will be fully operational from FY24 onward on the back of three new greenfield plants and other brownfield expansions
  • The new capacities will reach ~60% utilisation levels in the next 12-18 months
  • According to the management, the company is continuously focusing on enhancing its reach. Supreme is currently present in 12 out of 29 states in India. The company also plans to enhance its reach at the Taluka level. There are currently more than 6000 talukas in India and Supreme plans to enhance its presence in a majority of them
  • The company has added 69 distributors in 9MFY23 in the piping segment taking the distributor count to 1319. At the company level, the company added a total of 320 channel partners in FY23 taking the total count to 4373 channel partners. Supreme has more than 70,000 dealers in the piping segment as of 9MFY23

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal, MBA (Finance), Hitesh Taunk, MBA (Finance) and Ashwi Bhansali, MBA Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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