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  • CMP : 1,745.1 Chg : -0.80 (-0.05%)
  • Target : 1,125.0 (19.17%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

30 Jul 2022

Branded and specialty franchise driving trajectory…

About The Stock

 Sun is the world’s fourth largest specialty generics company with sales of US$3.8 billion and boasts of 43 manufacturing sites addressing segments like specialty products, branded generics, complex generics, pure generics and APIs.

  • With a market share of 8.5%, Sun is ranked No. 1 in domestic formulations. It enjoys leadership position in 11 specialties based on prescription
  • Revenue breakup FY22: US formulation~   30%, Indian branded~33%, Emerging markets~18%, RoW~14%, API & Others~6%
Q1FY23

Revenues were better than our estimates amid strong momentum across business verticals while margins also beat estimates.

  • Sales were up 11% YoY to ₹ 10762 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 2884 crore, up 2% YoY with margins at 26.8%

Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 2061 crore (up 4% YoY) [YoY growth is excluding the exceptional items of Q1FY22]

What should Investors do?

Sun Pharma’s share price has increased by ~2.2x over past three years (from ~₹ 431 in July 2019 to ~₹ 943 levels in July 2022).

  • We maintain BUY as 1) global specialty portfolio continues robust momentum, 2) growth in India formulations from new launches and field force expansion and 3) pricing power in branded space for better margins
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 1125 i.e. 28x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 40.1 

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Higher contribution from specialty (~13% of top-line) & branded generics (~51% of topline) in domestic franchise and emerging markets is likely to change the product mix towards more remunerative businesses
  • It has embarked on a strategy to in-license latest generation patent protected products from various innovators for India market
  • In US, Sun has diversified into specialty products like Ilumya, Levulan, BromSite, Cequa, Xelpros, Odomzo, Yonsa, Winlevi, etc, which has led to incremental remunerative contribution offsetting slowdown in US generics

Launch momentum in India (22 launches in Q1), pick-up in demand for chronic and sub-chronic segment backed by high PCPM and field expansion by 10% in FY23 to sustain growth

Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Sun, in our healthcare coverage we also like Cipla.

  • Cipla has a long-drawn strategy of targeting four verticals viz. One-India, South Africa & EMs, US generics & specialty and lung leadership
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1135

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 29,028.1 32,837.5 33,498.1 38,654.5 4.1 43,928.9 48,200.8 11.7
EBITDA 6,269.8 6,989.8 8,491.4 10,397.7 0.6 11,921.9 13,617.2 14.4
EBITDA Margins (%) 21.6 21.3 25.3 26.9 - 27.1 28.3 -
Adj. Profit 3,803.3 4,025.6 7,210.0 7,667.1 1.9 8,353.9 9,631.6 12.1
Adj. EPS (|) 15.9 16.8 30.0 32.0 - 34.8 40.1 -
PE (x) 80.6 55.4 71.9 63.8 - 27.1 23.5 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 33.2 29.4 23.9 19.0 - 17.6 14.9 -
RoE (%) 9.2 8.9 15.5 16.0 - 15.2 15.2 -
RoCE (%) 10.3 10.0 14.2 18.2 - 18.0 18.7 -
Debt / Equity 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Robust quarterly performance

  • Revenues grew 11% YoY to | 10762 crore (excluding Covid products sales for Q1 last year, overall sales up by 14%). Indian formulations grew 2% YoY to | 3387 crore, while excluding Covid sales in Q1FY22, India formulations grew by 13%. US formulations grew to | 3244 crore, up 16% YoY as the specialty business has grown by 29% YoY to US$191 million. Emerging Markets business grew 18% YoY to | 1891 crore. RoW Markets business grew 7% YoY to | 1468 crore. API segment posted growth of 11% YoY to | 654 crore. EBITDA margins declined 223 bps YoY, amid lower margins from Taro in Q1, and stood at 26.8% on back of higher employee and other expenses on a low base of Q1FY22 and Alchemee consolidation. Subsequently, EBITDA grew 2% YoY to | 2884 crore. Adjusted profit for exceptional items in base of Q1FY22, grew by 4% YoY to | 2061 crore.
  • Sun Pharma’s Q1FY23 operational performance was better than I-direct estimates with comprehensive beat on margins front. All the business segments recorded good growth while specialty business grew by 29% YoY driven by Ilumya, Cequa, Odomzo and Winlevi. India business continued to grow faster than market, leading to increase in market share. The company’s US generics front is going through calibrated product rationalisation, the specialty segment looks promising due to robust product pipeline and steady progress. This metamorphic shift from generics to specialty and higher contribution from specialty and strong domestic franchise is likely to change the product mix towards more remunerative businesses. This would have positive implications for margins also as we expect faster absorption of frontloaded costs on the specialty front.

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • US: Global specialty business grew 29% YoY in Q1FY23 to US$191 million largely on back of led by cequa, ilumya, odomzo and Winlevi prescriptions. There was seasonal decline in Levulan sales and also in-clinic patient level is still lower than pre-Covid times, resulting in lower thought put per doctor.  In case of cequa, post generic entry, Sun pharma has gained market share with no significant impact on pricing. Company continues to invest in Winlevi, which has been prescribed by 10,000 doctors. Winlevi sales grew by 22% QoQ in a slower summer season for derma products. About 21% of R&D in Q1FY23 was for Specialty business. Sun Pharma has 4 specialty molecules in clinical trial in pipeline – Ilumya, SCD-044, MM-II and GL0034. US generics also grew due to new launches (2 in Q1FY23), market share gains and better supply chain management. In US generics, Sun has pipeline of 89 ANDAs and 13 NDAa awaiting USFDA approval. Management has no guidance for EIR for Halol facility from USFDA. Taro posted sales of US$157 million post first full quarter of consolidation of the Alchemee acquisition.
  • India: Excluding Covid products sales for Q1 last year, sales was up by 13%. Growth was led by chronic and sub-chronic segment. The company is continuing to outperform IPM and has improved market share by 0.5% YoY to 8.5%. Sun Pharma’s expansion of field force is on track with ~ 90% hiring being completed. Company launched 22 products in Q1. Around 25 companies have launched Sitagliptin, Sun has ~ 33% market share and management is guiding to protect current share and grow subsequently.
  • In emerging markets, company is witnessing good traction for branded business which was partly affected by volatility in currency of emerging markets.
  • In Q1FY23, employee expenses increased on back of annual merit increase, Alchemee integration and salesforce expansion in India. Other expenses are also on an increasing trend on back of higher selling and administration expenses due to business normalization across markets and consolidation of Alchemee business.
Variance Analysis

  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 10,761.8 10,382.7 9,718.7 10.7 9,446.8 13.9   Excluding Covid products sales for Q1 last year, overall sales up by 14%
Raw Material Expenses 2,900.2 2,791.2 2,649.4 9.5 2,539.6 14.2    
Gross margins (%) 73.1 73.1 72.7 31 bps 73.1 -7 bps    
Employee Expenses 2,074.9 2,024.6 1,758.7 18.0 1,884.9 10.1   YoY increase due to annual merit increase, Alchemee integration and salesforce expansion in India
Other Expenditure 2,902.3 3,036.9 2,489.5 16.6 2,681.9 8.2    
Total Expenditure  7,877.4 7,852.8 6,897.7 14.2 7,106.4 10.8   YoY increase due to higher selling and administration expenses and consolidation of Alchemee business
EBITDA 2,884.4 2,529.9 2,821.1 2.2 2,340.4 23.2    
EBITDA (%) 26.8 24.4 29.0 -223 bps 24.8 203 bps   YoY decline due to higher employee and other expenses
Interest 13.7 12.1 35.1 -61.0 37.3 -63.3    
Depreciation 588.0 588.9 503.2 16.8 556.5 5.7    
Other income 2.1 206.4 152.5 -98.6 113.6 -98.1    
EO 0.0 0.0 631.1   3,935.8      
PBT 2,284.8 2,135.3 1,804.2 26.6 -2,075.6 LP    
Tax 189.0 405.7 395.6 -52.2 146.8 28.8    
MI 32.5 51.5 -40.1 LP 49.9 -34.8    
Net Profit 2,060.9 1,673.1 1,444.2 42.7 -2,277.3 LP    
Adj. Net Profit 2,060.9 1,673.1 1,979.2 4.1 1,582.1 30.3   Excluding the exceptional items of Q1FY22, adjusted net profit was up by 4.1%
Key Metrics                
India formulations 3,387.1 3,473.8 3,308.4 2.4 3,096.6 9.4   Excluding Covid products sales for Q1 last year, sales up by 13%
US formulations 3,243.7 3,170.4 2,800.0 15.8 2,924.6 10.9   YoY growth driven by specialty portfolio amid demand uptick for cequa, ilumya, Winlevi and Odomzo, with Specialty at US$191 million
Emerging Markets 1,891.1 1,685.5 1,605.3 17.8 1,547.5 22.2   YoY growth in US$ term was 12.6%
RoW  1,467.8 1,477.4 1,368.0 7.3 1,340.7 9.5   YoY growth in US$ term was 2.6%
APIs 654.3 514.2 587.8 11.3 477.7 37.0    
US Sales (Ex Taro) 2,034.9 1,921.2 1,715.1 18.6 1,847.1 10.2    

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