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Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,506.6 Chg : -13.60 (-0.89%)
  • Target : 1,070.0 (22.99%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

31 May 2022

Outlook maintained for specialty, branded business…

About The Stock

Sun is the world’s fourth largest specialty generics company with sales of US$3.8 billion and boasts of 43 manufacturing sites addressing segments like specialty products, branded generics, complex generics, pure generics and APIs.

  • With a market share of 8.3%, Sun is ranked No. 1 in domestic formulations. It enjoys leadership position in 11 specialties based on prescription
  • Revenue breakup: US formulation~ 30%, Indian branded~33%, Emerging markets~18%, RoW~14%, API & Others~6%
Q4FY22

Revenues were in line with our estimates amid strong momentum across business verticals.

  • Sales were up 11% YoY to ₹ 9447 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 2340 crore, up 14% YoY with margins at 24.8%
  • Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 1582 crore (up 18% YoY) [profit is adjusted for one-off exceptional expenditure of ₹ 3935.7 crore and exceptional tax gain of
    • ₹ 76.4 crore in Q4FY22]
What should Investors do?

Sun Pharma’s share price has increased by ~2.1x over past three years (from ~₹ 410 in May 2019 to ~₹ 870 levels in May 2022).

  • We maintain BUY as 1) the global specialty portfolio continues robust momentum, 2) focus on growth in India formulations with 10% increase in MRs and 3) pricing power in branded markets for better margins
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 1070 i.e. 28x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 38.3 

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Higher contribution from specialty & branded generics (~51% of topline) in domestic franchise and emerging markets is likely to change the product mix towards more remunerative businesses
  • It has embarked on a strategy to in-license latest generation patent protected products from various innovators for India market
  • In the US, Sun is diversifying into specialty products like Ilumya, Levulan, BromSite, Cequa, Xelpros, Odomzo, Yonsa, Winlevi, etc
  • Launch momentum in India (11 launches in Q4), pick-up in demand for chronic and sub-chronic segment backed by high PCPM and field expansion by 10% in FY23 to sustain growth
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Sun, in our healthcare coverage we also like Cipla.

  • Cipla has a long-drawn strategy of targeting four verticals viz. One-India, South Africa & EMs, US generics & specialty and lung leadership
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1095

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 29,028.1 32,837.5 33,498.1 38,654.5 4.1 42,606.9 46,710.0 9.9
EBITDA 6,269.8 6,989.8 8,491.4 10,397.7 0.6 11,500.2 13,195.6 12.7
EBITDA Margins (%) 21.6 21.3 25.3 26.9 - 27.0 28.3 -
Adj. Profit 3,803.3 4,025.6 7,210.0 7,667.1 1.9 7,822.9 9,189.1 9.5
Adj. EPS (|) 15.9 16.8 30.0 32.0 - 32.6 38.3 -
PE (x) 80.6 55.4 71.9 63.8 - 26.7 22.7 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 33.2 29.4 23.9 19.0 - 16.8 14.2 -
RoE (%) 9.2 8.9 15.5 16.0 - 14.3 14.7 -
RoCE (%) 10.3 10.0 14.2 18.2 - 17.7 18.2 -
Debt / Equity 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Steady quarterly performance

  • Revenues grew 11% YoY to | 9447 crore (I-direct estimate: | 9459 crore). Indian formulations grew 16% YoY to | 3097 crore (I-direct estimate: | 2991 crore). US formulations grew to | 2925 crore (I-direct estimate: | 2953 crore), up 8% YoY. Emerging Markets business grew 10% YoY to | 1548 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1682 crore). RoW Markets business grew 10% YoY to | 1341 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1251 crore). API segment was flat YoY at | 478 crore (I-direct estimate: | 535 crore)
  • EBITDA margins improved 74 bps YoY, despite lower margins from Taro in Q4, and were at 24.8% (I-direct estimates of 25.5%) on back of marginal dip in gross margins being offset by lower other expenditure. Subsequently, EBITDA grew 14% YoY to | 2340 crore (I-direct estimate: | 2409 crore). Adjusted profit grew 18% YoY to | 1582 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1953 crore). [Note: profit is adjusted for one-off exceptional expenditure of
    ~| 3935.7 crore and exceptional tax gain of ~ | 76.4 crore in Q4FY22]
  • The board of directors recommended final dividend of | 3/share, taking total dividend to | 10/share in FY22 (including interim dividend of | 7 per share)
  • Sun Pharma’s Q4FY22 operational performance was in line with I-direct estimates. In India, Sun pharma launched 11 new products in Q4 while also increasing market share. The company’s US generics front is going through calibrated product rationalisation, the specialty segment looks promising due to robust product pipeline, steady progress. In Q4FY22, specialty sales grew 30% YoY to US$185 million while Global Ilumya sales recorded 81% growth to US$315 million in FY22. This metamorphic shift from generics to specialty, however, is likely to weigh on US growth in the near term. That said, higher contribution from specialty and strong branded franchise is likely to change the product mix towards more remunerative businesses. This would have positive implications for margins also as we expect faster absorption of frontloaded costs on the specialty front

 

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • US: Global specialty business contribution has inched up from 7% in FY18 to 13% in FY22. Sales for specialty grew 39% in FY22 to US$674 million in FY22. Ilumya sales grew 81% in FY22 to US$315 million. In Q4FY22, growth in specialty portfolio was led by cequa, ilumya and odomzo to US$185 million in Q4FY22. Absorica sales declined due to generics entry. For winlevi, out of 15000 dermatologists, 9000 have prescribed the product; in terms of prescriptions, it is larger than the illumya but dollar value is lower. Covid occurred during Q4FY22. Doctor-patient inflow remains below pre-Covid levels in US. Generics (ex-taro) witnessed price erosion but the management indicated growth was due to new launches and better supply management to compensate pricing pressure. Overall there were five launches in Q4 for generics. Sun Pharma commercialised generic for amphotericin B and mesalamine extended-release capsules in US
  • India: About 1% contribution from Covid in Q4FY22.Growth was led by chronic and sub-chronic segment. The company is guiding for field addition by 10% in FY23 to focus on geographical expansion and brand focus
  • Other expenses have increased due to higher selling, distribution and travelling costs, which were not in the base of FY21 due to Covid
    • Specialty R&D was at ~20% of total R&D
    • The management guided for high single digit to low double-digit growth on consolidated basis and R&D expenditure to remain at 7-8% of sales in FY23.
Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 9,446.8 9,459.0 8,523.0 10.8 9,863.1 -4.2   YoY growth driven by momentum across business segments
Raw Material Expenses 2,539.6 2,532.4 2,240.8 13.3 2,640.6 -3.8    
Gross margins (%) 73.1 73.2 73.7 -59 bps 73.2 -11 bps    
Employee Expenses 1,884.9 1,775.1 1,677.5 12.4 1,850.9 1.8    
Other Expenditure 2,681.9 2,742.8 2,556.3 4.9 2,765.2 -3.0    
Total Expenditure  7,106.4 7,050.3 6,474.5 9.8 7,256.7 -2.1    
EBITDA 2,340.4 2,408.7 2,048.5 14.3 2,606.3 -10.2    
EBITDA (%) 24.8 25.5 24.0 74 bps 26.4 -165 bps   YoY improvement amid marginal dip in gross margins being offset by lower other expenditure
Interest 37.3 19.0 30.1 24.1 19.0 96.8    
Depreciation 556.5 553.7 553.5 0.5 553.7 0.5    
Other income 113.6 237.3 111.0 2.3 432.5 -73.7    
EO 3,935.8 5,062.5 672.8   0.0      
PBT -2,075.6 -2,989.2 903.0 PL 2,466.2 PL    
Tax 146.8 -254.1 55.0 166.6 335.4 -56.2    
MI 49.9 -60.0 -51.7 LP 67.5 -26.1    
Net Profit -2,277.3 -2,679.6 894.2 PL 2,058.8 PL    
Adj. Net Profit 1,582.1 1,952.6 1,343.1 17.8 2,058.8 -23.2   Profit is adjusted for one-off exceptional expenditure of ~ | 3935.7 crore and exceptional tax gain of ~ | 76.4 crore in Q4FY22
Key Metrics                
India formulations 3,096.6 2,991.4 2,670.9 15.9 3,167.6 -2.2   YoY growth driven by demand in chronic and sub-chronic segments
US formulations 2,924.6 2,952.6 2,698.8 8.4 2,971.8 -1.6   YoY growth driven by specialty portfolio amid demand uptick for cequa, ilumya and Odomzo
Emerging Markets 1,547.5 1,681.8 1,401.5 10.4 1,789.9 -13.5   YoY growth in US$ term was 7%
RoW  1,340.7 1,250.9 1,216.8 10.2 1,353.2 -0.9   YoY growth in US$ term was 7%
APIs 477.7 535.4 475.7 0.4 531.8 -10.2    
US Sales (Ex Taro) 1,847.1 1,835.6 1,617.4 14.2 1,930.2 -4.3    

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I/We, Siddhant Khandekar, Inter CA, Raunak Thakur, PGDM, Kush Mehta, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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