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  • CMP : 465.7 Chg : 4.20 (0.91%)
  • Target : 650.0 (26.95%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

06 Feb 2023

Outlook on growth, loss ratio remains encouraging

About The Stock

Star Health is the largest standalone insurer engaged in health insurance segment with relatively superior market share, operating performance.

  • Star Health is a market leader in the retail health insurance segment with ~33% market share, as of December 2022
  • Star Health has 830 branches and 14000+ network hospitals, with a presence in 25 states and five union territories
Q3FY23

Steady market share in retail health; claims trend steady.

  • GWP up 14.5% YoY to ₹ 3096 crore, NWP up 15.1% & NEP up 13.4% YoY
  • Incurred claims declined 30.9% YoY. Claims ratio down from 68% to 63.7%
  • Combined ratio within guidance at 94.8%; underwriting profit at ₹ 126 crore
  • Net profit was at ₹ 210 crore vs. a loss of ₹ 578 crore YoY
What should Investors do?

Star Health is expected to maintain its leadership in retail health segment with sustainable long term growth opportunity. Higher than industry growth and targeted combined ratio of 95-96% provides confidence.

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

Given the risk of increase in competitive intensity driven by regulatory changes, we lower our valuation multiple at ~1.9x FY25E GDPI to arrive at a revised target price of ₹ 650 from ₹ 850 earlier. However, fundamental strength provides comfort.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Price hikes coupled with increasing proportion of specialised products to aid premium growth at 20-22% and maintain market leadership
  • Improving footprints in rural India, increase in bancassurance tie-up along with strengthening of own agency channel to propel business momentum
  • Expansion of hospital tie-ups and faster claim settlement to keep claim ratio at 62-65%, thus resulting in combined ratio at 95-96%
  • Strategy to enter life insurance business subject to regulatory approval and any regulatory change to intensify competition needs to be watched
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Star Health, we like SBI Life Insurance.

  • It is among the most dominant players in the Indian life insurance industry
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1300

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR _(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR _(FY22-FY25E)
Gross written premium (GWP) 6,890.7 9,388.5 11,739.6 29.4 13,104.2 16,052.3 19,262.8 17.9
Net Incurred Claims 3,087.4 4,369.5 8,727.5 56.0 7,731.0 9,352.0 10,970.6 7.9
Underwriting Profit/Loss 168.4 -1,331.8 -2,127.2 - 397.0 529.4 677.5 -
Profit after Tax 272.0 -825.6 -1,203.6 - 723.4 841.1 1,038.0 -
NWP/Net Worth (x) 3.2 1.7 1.8 - 1.5 1.5 1.6 -
Price/Float (x) 0.7 0.4 0.3 - 0.2 0.2 0.1 -
P/GWP (x) 0.4 0.3 0.2 - 0.2 0.2 0.2 -
P/E (x) 110.6 -36.4 -25.0 - 41.8 35.9 29.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

Policyholders Account Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY% Q2FY23 QoQ%  
Gross Premium Written 3096.7 2930.5 2704.5 14.5 3192.9 (3.0) Retail health market share remained at 33% 
(-) Reinsurance ceded 153.3 (175.8) 147.7 3.8 154.0 (0.5)  
Net written premium (NWP) 2943.4 2754.7 2556.8 15.1 3038.9 (3.1)  
Net earned premium (NEP) 2867.2 2856.5 2528.3 13.4 2794.8 2.6  
(-) Net Incurred Claims 1827.8 1856.2 2644.2 (30.9) 1906.0 (4.1) Claim ratio steady at 63.7% 
(-) Net Commission Expense 402.6 310.9 358.8 12.2 396.4 1.6 Comission ratio at 13.7% 
(-) Operating expenses related to insurance business 511.0 415.2 437.7 16.7 505.4 1.1  
(-) Total expense 2741.5 2582.4 3440.7 (20.3) 2807.9 (2.4)  
Underwriting Profit/Loss 125.8 153.7 (912.4) (113.8) (13.1) NA Combined ratio within guidance at 94.8% 
Investment Income 115.7 120.0 90.1 28.4 123.3 (6.1)  
Operating Profit/Loss 241.5 273.7 (822.3) (129.4) 110.2 119.1  
Transfer to Shareholders Account 241.5 273.7 (822.3) (129.4) 110.2 119.1  
               
Shareholders Account Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY% Q2FY23 QoQ%  
Operating Profit/Loss 241.5 273.7 (822.3) (129.4) 110.2 119.1  
Investment Income 89.7 0.0 92.5 (3.0) 83.7 7.2  
Other Income 1.73 1.50 0.0 4225.0 0.89 94.4  
(-) Expense and Provision 51.2 0.0 38.6 32.7 74.1 (31.0)  
Profit before tax 281.7 275.2 (768.3) (136.7) 120.6 133.5  
(-) Provision for Taxation 71.3 70.2 (189.9) (137.5) 27.6 158.7  
Profit after Tax 210.5 205.0 (578.4) (136.4) 93.1 126.1 Net profit as lower claims drive performance

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • With de-growth in the group segment largely done, maintain guidance of premium growth at 20-22%. Retail health segment to witness continued traction while group business (focused on SME segment) should see similar traction
  • Post hike in Medi-classic product earlier, price hike slated for floater health product, effective from February 2023 for new customers and from May 2023 for existing customers. Received regulatory approval for price hike proposal. No substantial decline seen in retention post price hike of Medi-classic plan
  • Agency channel contributed 82% of overall business. Maintain target to add 80000-100000 agents in FY23E
  • Strong agency channel should ensure business growth and reduce any competition pressure in case of approval of composite license. Agency addition target maintained at 80,000 – 1,00,000 in FY23E
  • Composite license discussion currently in draft stage; need to see final guidelines. Applied for exposure license for life insurance segment, awaiting approval from regulator
  • Average rise in sum insured increased ~13% to | 8.8 lakh
  • No substantial seasonal increase in claims experienced in Q3FY23. Thus, maintain guidance of loss ratio at 62-65% for FY23. Further, lower group business should also enable better claim ratio. Guidance for combined ratio is at 93-95% in FY23E

 

Disclaimer

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com. Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                

 

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