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  • CMP : 461.7 Chg : 0.25 (0.05%)
  • Target : 850.0 (21.95%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 Nov 2022

Retail health remains in focus; growth to drive valuation

About The Stock

Star Health is the largest standalone insurer engaged in health insurance segment with relatively superior market share, operating performance.

  • Star Health is a market leader in the retail health insurance segment with ~33% market share, as of September 2022
  • Star Health has 815 branches and 14000+ network hospitals, with a presence in 25 states and five union territories
Q2FY23

Modest growth; market share improved; claims trending down.

  • GWP up 10.7% YoY to ₹ 3193 crore, NWP up 11.3% & NEP up 15.6% YoY
  • Incurred claims decline 7.9% YoY to ₹ 1906 crore. Claims ratio down from 76% to 62.7%
  • Combined ratio witnessed improvement, underwriting loss at ₹ 13.1 crore
  • Net profit was at ₹ 93.1 crore vs. a loss of ₹ 170.5 crore YoY
What should Investors do?

Star Health is expected to maintain its leadership in retail health segment with sustainable long term growth opportunity. Anticipated growth of 20-25% in retail health segment coupled with a gradual improvement in claim ratio to further improve combined ratio and support RoE.

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Star Health at ~2.8x FY24E GDPI (58x FY24E EPS) to arrive at a revised target price of ₹ 850 from ₹ 860 earlier

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Market leadership to be maintained in under-penetrated segment with long term growth opportunity
  • With de-growth in group segment largely done, expect ~10-12% volume based and 8-10% value based growth to aid premium growth at 20-22%
  • Improving footprints in rural India, increase in bancassurance tie-up along with strengthening of own agency channel to propel business momentum
  • Lower group business and moderation in monsoon related reported claims to keep claim ratio at 62-65%
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Star Health, we like HDFC Life Insurance.

  • It is among the most dominant players in the Indian life insurance industry

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 635

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21E 4 Year CAGR(FY16-FY20) FY22E FY23E FY24E 3 Year CAGR (FY21-FY24E)
Gross written premium (GWP) 5,415.4 6,890.7 9,388.5 11,739.6 29.4 13,865.2 16,906.2 20.0
Net Incurred Claims 2,297.6 3,087.4 4,369.5 8,727.5 56.0 8,150.4 9,881.3 6.4
Underwriting Profit/Loss 31.7 168.4 -1,331.8 -2,127.2
Profit after Tax 128.2 272.0 -825.6 -1,203.6
NWP/Net Worth (x) 4.0 3.2 1.7 1.8 - 1.6 1.5 -
Price/Float (x) 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 - 0.3 0.2 -
P/GWP (x) 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 - 0.3 0.3 -
P/E (x) 247.6 150.2 -49.5 -34.0 - 79.9 48.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

Policyholders Account Q2FY23 Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY% Q1FY23 QoQ%  
Gross Premium Written 3192.9 4403.5 2884.7 10.7 2463.7 29.6 Largely driven by 21.1% YoY uptick in retail health
(-) Reinsurance ceded 154.0 (264.2) 155.4 (0.9) 119.6 28.8  
Net written premium (NWP) 3038.9 4139.2 2729.3 11.3 2344.1 29.6  
Net earned premium (NEP) 2794.8 3156.1 2416.7 15.6 2687.1 4.0  
(-) Net Incurred Claims 1906.0 1856.2 2069.6 (7.9) 1781.1 7.0 Claim ratio steady at 62.7%
(-) Net Commission Expense 396.4 310.9 359.7 10.2 322.0 23.1 Comission ratio at 12.4% 
(-) Operating expenses related to insurance business 505.4 415.2 503.4 0.4 427.2 18.3  
(-) Total expense 2807.9 2582.4 2932.6 (4.3) 2530.3 11.0  
Underwriting Profit/Loss (13.1) 45.5 (515.9) (97.5) 156.8 (108.3) Combined ratio declines at 91.8%
Investment Income 123.3 150.0 181.3 (32.0) 82.1 50.2  
Operating Profit/Loss 110.2 195.5 (334.6) (132.9) 278.8 (60.5)  
Transfer to Shareholders Account 110.2 195.5 (334.6) (132.9) 278.8 (60.5)  
               
Shareholders Account Q2FY23 Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY% Q1FY23 QoQ%  
Operating Profit/Loss 110.2 195.5 (334.6) (132.9) 278.8 (60.5)  
Investment Income 83.7 60.0 104.4 (19.8) 82.1 2.0 Investment income remained flattish QoQ
Other Income 0.9 0.0 6.9 (87.0) 1.76 (49.4)  
(-) Expense and Provision 74.1 80.0 9.0 727.2 74.7 (0.8)  
Profit before tax 120.6 175.5 (232.3) (151.9) 287.9 (58.1)  
(-) Provision for Taxation 27.6 33.8 (61.9) (144.5) 74.7 (63.1)  
Profit after Tax 93.1 141.7 (170.5) (154.6) 213.2 (56.3) Net profit as lower claims drive performance

 

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Introduced a new product - Star Extra Protect. Expect yield accretion from new product launches to accrue ahead
  • With de-growth in the group segment largely done, premium growth is seen at 20-22%
  • Retail renewal remains healthy at 94%. Top up policies bought last year (owing to heightened fear) have not been renewed by some customers
  • Focus continued on SME clients in group segment, though selective business approach has led to slower growth in H1FY23
  • Retail business saw 8-10% value based and remaining 10-12% volume based. Normally H2 is heavier in terms of volumes. In Star Medi-classic product, the company has taken a 25% price hike. It contributed 7-8% to total retail premium
  • Added 36000 agents in H1FY23. Agency channel contributed 82% of overall business. Further, aims to add 80000 agents in FY23E. Opened new branches (including five branches in J&K) and witnessing healthy premium accretion in new geographies
  • Continue to focus on digital business. Appointed Chief Digital Officer. App download 1.7 million, 83% of distributors using digital resources
  • Average rise in sum insured increased ~14%. Cashless claims are 66% of total claims
  • Average claim size remains one of the lowest among peers. Claim size continues to decline sequentially. Expect claim ratio to decline further by 1% ahead
  • Reported claims related to monsoon relatively lower in September and October 2022. Not witnessing higher claims in early days of Q3FY23. Thus, loss ratio guidance maintained at 62-65% for FY23E. Further, lower group business should also enable better claim ratio. Guidance for combined ratio is at 93-95% in FY23E
  • Repaid | 200 crore of borrowing. Despite this payment, solvency continued to remain robust. Tenure of subordinate debt is seven years with call option at five years. Thus, subordinate debt will continue to stay on balance sheet
  • Higher reserve release is higher led by de-growth in group business
  • Median age of insured remains steady at 41 years
  • Reinsurance arrangement on travel and critical insurance products. Reinsurance largely with GIC Re
  • Modified duration in investment book at 4.2 years

Disclaimer

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com. Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                

 

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