loader2
Partner With Us NRI
Star Health & Allied Insurance Company Ltd>
  • CMP : 570.5 Chg : 3.70 (0.65%)
  • Target : 700.0 (16.67%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

08 May 2023

Steady Q4; strong guidance remains encouraging...

About The Stock

Star Health is the largest standalone insurer engaged in the health insurance segment with relatively superior market share, operating performance.

  • Star Health is a market leader in the retail health insurance segment with ~34% market share as of March 2023
  • Star Health has 835 branches and 14200+ network hospitals, with a presence in 25 states and five union territories
Q4FY23

Premium growth remains healthy.

  • GWP up 13.8% YoY to ₹ 4199 crore, NWP up 15.0% & NEP up 11.1% YoY
  • Incurred claims flat YoY, QoQ. Claims ratio was at 65%
  • Combined ratio within guidance at 95.3%; underwriting loss at ₹ 65 crore
  • Net profit was at ₹ 102 crore vs. a loss of ₹ 122 crore YoY
What should Investors do?

Star Health is expected to maintain its leadership in the retail health segment with sustainable long term growth opportunity. Higher than industry growth and targeted improvement in combined ratio provides confidence.

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

Given levers for improvement in RoE – strengthening of distribution channels through banca tie-up, focus on profitable growth, elevated yields and issuance of Esop at market price, we remain positive on the fundamental strength. Thus, we assign a multiple of 2x on FY25E GDPI and arrive at a revised target price of ₹ 700 from ₹ 650 earlier.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Price hikes, increasing proportion of specialised products to keep premium growth ahead of industry thereby enabling market share leadership
  • Improving footprints in rural India, increase in bancassurance tie-up along with strengthening of own agency channel to propel business momentum
  • Strong distribution (agency and banca tie-up), hospital network and claim management to act as moats aiding profitable growth momentum
  • Expansion of hospital tie-ups, faster claim settlement to keep claim ratio at 62-65%. Focus on efficiency to further improve combined ratio ahead
  • Elevated yields and issuance of new Esop at market price to further aid RoE
Alternate Stock

Apart from Star Health, we like SBI Life Insurance.

  • It is among the most dominant players in the Indian life insurance industry
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1350

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY20-FY23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
Gross written premium (GWP) 6,890.7 9,388.5 11,462.3 12,950.9 23.4 16,052.3 19,262.8 22.0
Net Incurred Claims 3,087.4 4,369.5 8,540.0 7,320.4 33.3 9,352.0 10,970.6 22.4
Underwriting Profit/Loss 168.4 -1,331.8 -2,061.6 204.7 - 529.4 677.5 -
Profit after Tax 272.0 -825.6 -1,040.7 618.6 - 841.1 1,038.0 -
NWP/Net Worth (x) 3.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 - 1.5 1.6 -
Price/Float (x) 0.8 0.5 3.3 2.6 - 1.9 1.7 -
P/GWP (x) 5.1 3.7 3.0 2.7 - 2.2 1.8 -
P/E (x) 128.0 -42.2 -28.9 48.4 - 42.6 34.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

Policyholders Account Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY% Q3FY23 QoQ%  
Gross Premium Written 4199.2 3263.3 3689.2 13.8 3096.7 35.6 Retail health market share remained buoyant at 34% 
(-) Reinsurance ceded 206.0 195.8 215.4 (4.3) 153.3 34.4  
Net written premium (NWP) 3993.2 3067.5 3473.8 15.0 2943.4 35.7  
Net earned premium (NEP) 2912.5 2914.2 2621.2 11.1 2867.2 1.6  
(-) Net Incurred Claims 1805.4 1865.7 1784.8 1.2 1827.8 (1.2) Claim ratio improved at 62%
(-) Net Commission Expense 561.2 507.6 507.2 10.6 402.6 39.4 Comission ratio up at 14.1% 
(-) Operating expenses related to insurance business 610.7 662.0 546.4 11.8 511.0 19.5  
(-) Total expense 2977.3 2697.7 3105.7 (4.1) 3072.0 (3.1)  
Underwriting Profit/Loss (64.8) (26.2) (217.2) (70.2) 125.8 NA Combined ratio improved at 91.4% 
Investment Income 115.7 11.9 4.0 2791.1 13.6 753.4 Higher yield benefit investment income
Operating Profit/Loss 75.7 153.8 (156.6) (148.3) 331.2 (77.1)  
Transfer to Shareholders Account 75.7 153.8 (156.6) (148.3) 331.2 (77.1)  
               
Shareholders Account Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY% Q3FY23 QoQ%  
Operating Profit/Loss 75.7 153.8 (156.6) (148.3) 331.2 (77.1)  
Investment Income 77.7 61.2 20.6 276.9 69.8 11.2  
Other Income 1.33 1.50 1.17 13.7 1.73 (23.1)  
Profit before tax 136.7 155.3 (155.4) (187.9) 332.9 (58.9)  
(-) Provision for Taxation 34.3 39.6 33.7 1.6 (71.3) (148.1)  
Profit after Tax 102.4 115.7 (121.7) (184.2) 261.6 (60.9) High opex partially offset premium accretion

 

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • In Q4FY23, health insurance industry premium (including PA) grew 25.4%, driven largely by 28% growth in Group Health and 16% growth in Retail Health
  • Star Health recorded ~25% growth in premium in April 2023 with claim ratio being lower YoY. Growth is heterogeneous from all lines of business – retail as well as group
  • For FY23, Star Health’s retail health premium grew at ~18% vs. industrys retail health growth of 15.3%. Market share in the retail health segment increased from 33% in FY22 to 34% in FY23
  • The management aims to grow premium at a higher than industry rate thereby further increasing retail health market share. Growth in FY24E could be driven by value (55-60%) and volume (40-45%). Share of the group segment to increase to 10% of overall premium. Focus on profitable growth to keep loss ratios in the guidance range
  • Average sum assured of new policies has increased by 13% to ~| 9 lakh per policy. Policies with | 5 lakh sum insured and above constitute 70% of portfolio vs. 64% in FY22
  • Premium from benefit products has grown by 53% in FY23 with proportion in overall GWP increasing by 62 bps YoY to 2.3% in FY23
  • Launched two new products in Q4FY23 - Star Special Care Gold and Star Group Health Benefit Plus. Special Care Gold is a product tailored specifically for individuals with disabilities and those who are HIV-positive. Star Group Health Benefit plan offers critical illness cover up to 54 critical illnesses, personal accident cover, hospital cash cover an EMI protect due to hospitalisation. It also covers health indemnity & health indemnity top-up
  • Contribution from the agency channel was at 82% with net addition of 76000 agents in FY23 (total agent count at 625860). Tie up with corporates and banca channel picking up with contribution growing at 43% in FY23
  • Digital sourcing from web and tele sales models has grown 28% YoY in FY23 to | 625 crore
  • Tie up achieved with leading banks - Standard Chartered Bank, India Post Bank and ESAF Small Finance Banks for distribution of Star Health products through their platforms
  • Cashless claim settlement for 73% of claims by volume (63% in FY22) and 80% by value (71% in FY22)
  • Anti-fraud digital initiatives are operational and provided ~1.3% benefit in claim ratio in FY23, which is well in-line with guidance of ~1% benefit to be achieved
  • Expense ratio fell to 30.3% in FY23 vs. 30.8% in FY22 on account of efficient cost control and management. Claims ratio improved from 87.1% in FY22 to 65% in FY23 (includes 0.4% impact of Covid claims). Thus, combined ratio improved from 117.9% in FY22 to 95.3% in FY23. For Q4FY23, the opex ratio has improved to 29.4% vs. 30.3% in Q4FY22 despite lower group business
  • Currently, 4.1% of portfolio is invested in ETFs, which is planned to increase up to 7%. With a rise in interest rates and deployment of fresh investments at higher yield, portfolio yield increased from 6.71% in Q4FY22 to 7.34% in Q4FY23
  • The management aims to continue improvement in combined ratio in FY24E
  • New Esop will be issued at market price with no substantial impact on P&L
  • Growth in retail health business at 18% in FY23 - split equally between volume and value
  • Total ~2.5% of policies are long term plans i.e. plans for more than one year. Star Health aims to focus on increasing proportion of long term policies ahead
  • Management is targeting RoE at 15-16% in FY23 driven by price hike, growth and end to Esop expense. RoE in FY22 at 12.5% includes impact of Esop expense
  • With implementation of IFRS, wherein cost is deferred over the policy period, positive impact of 300-400 bps could be seen on RoE

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

Third Floor, Brillanto House,

Road No 13, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Sameer Sawant, MBA Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. Registered Office Address: ICICI Venture House, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai - 400 025. CIN: L67120MH1995PLC086241, Tel: (91 22) 6807 7100. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. None of the research recommendations promise or guarantee any assured, minimum or risk-free return to the investors.

Name of the Compliance officer (Research Analyst): Mr. Anoop Goyal Contact number: 022-40701000 E-mail Address: complianceofficer@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated bythe subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third partyin connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/ beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

Read More