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  • CMP : 349.4 Chg : -0.65 (-0.19%)
  • Target : 900.0 (21.46%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

04 May 2022

IT services revenue recovery from Q2FY23 onwards

About The Stock

Sonata Software (Sonata) offers IT services (30%) and product licensing & deployment (70%).

  • The company provides IT services to travel, retail, agri & commodities and manufacturing and software vendors
  • Net debt free and healthy double digit return ratio (with RoCE of >30%)
Q4FY22

Sonata reported weak Q4FY22 numbers.

  • IT services dollar revenues increased 4.7% QoQ while product revenues declined 28.2% QoQ
  • EBITDA margins in IT services declined 50 bps QoQ while that of product business improved 130 bps QoQ
  • Digital revenues contribute 73% of IT services
What should Investors do?

Sonata’s share price has grown by ~5.4x over the past five years (from ~₹ 137 in April 2017 to ~₹ 741 levels in April 2022).

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value Sonata at ₹ 900 i.e. 20x P/E on FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With improved traction in retail, commodity & manufacturing and healthy demand for its travel client, we expect FY24E to witness robust growth in revenues
  • Upgrades in Microsoft Dynamics and tapping 1000 clients in the medium to large category bode well for revenue growth
  • Robust hiring trend & inorganic growth prompt us to build IT service dollar revenue growth of over 18% CAGR over FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Sonata, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Strong revenue guidance prompts us to be positive on the stock
  • HOLD with a target price of ₹ 2,000

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 2,960.9 3,743.3 4,228.1 5,553.4 18.6 6,681.8 7,799.3 18.5
EBITDA 335.6 372.8 379.4 463.8 19.3 524.0 647.7 18.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.3 10.0 9.0 8.4 - 7.8 8.3 -
PAT 248.9 276.9 244.0 376.5 19.1 373.8 468.7 11.6
EPS (|) 24.0 26.7 23.5 36.2 - 36.0 45.1 -
P/E (x) 31.2 27.8 31.6 20.5 - 20.6 16.4 -
RoNW (%) 32.4 41.4 26.9 34.2 - 29.9 32.6 -
RoCE (%) 42.3 44.7 33.5 39.8 - 35.5 39.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • IT service segment dollar revenues increased 4.3% QoQ to US$55.7 million, (4.7% in CC terms) while rupee revenue came in at | 414 crore, 4.7% QoQ growth. Product business revenues declined 28.2% QoQ to | 1,051 crore. Total revenues declined 21.2% QoQ to | 1,464 crore
  • IT service EBITDA margin (including other income) declined 50 bps QoQ to 27.5% while that of product business improved 130 bps to 3.8%. Consolidated EBITDA margins improved 260 bps to 10.5%
  • IT services revenues were aided by the US, which reported 8.1% QoQ growth. There was decline in QoQ growth in Europe and RoW by 0.2% & 0.4%, respectively
  • The company indicated that demand environment continue to be strong. It also indicated that revenue for the quarter was impacted due to supply side challenges and there was a loss of 2-2.5% revenue for the quarter due to this. Sonata is addressing the issue as it opened new delivery centre in Canada, Ireland and aggressively creating the capacity in Tier II and Tier III towns in India. The company expects supply side crunch to be fixed by Q2FY23
  • Sonata indicated that EBITDA margins for Q4FY22 were impacted due to salary hikes in January 2022. The company expects near term margin pressure and guided for 22% EBITDA margins (net of other income) for FY23 due to some top level hiring as well as investments in delivery centres, sales & marketing etc. Sonata appointed Samir Dhir as CEO. He would be based out of the US and also appointed chief revenue officer, based out of London
  • The company indicated that attrition continue to be at elevated level for the company. Attrition for Q4FY22 was 30% while that of FY22 was ~27%
  • In the product business, the company generates major revenues from Microsoft Azure in cloud followed by AWS and Google. The majority of revenues in cloud are cloud hosting. The company continues to invest in building digital capabilities and also started focusing on non-Microsoft stack (Google & Amazon)
  • Growth of top five clients was muted at 1% QoQ. However, top 6-10 clients grew strong 19% QoQ. Top 11-20 clients grew 30% QoQ. Digital revenue now accounts for 73% of revenue (vs. 72% in Q3FY22)
  • Digital revenues’ contribution continues to rise QoQ and now forms 73% of IT services revenues vs. 67% in Q4FY21
  • The company distribute 60% of its net income as dividend. Sonata indicated that it may look at M&A activity, going ahead, but its capital allocation would be prudent as it is not aggressive on inorganic opportunities
  • Sonata indicated that other income for the quarter was high as it includes reversal of earn outs related to sopris acquisitions (| 26 crore) as certain milestones were not achieved, which were part of the deal three years ago
  • The company hired 405 freshers in FY22 and expects to hire 45% more freshers in FY23
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q4FY22   Q4FY21   YoY (%)   Q3FY22   QoQ (%)  Comments
 Revenue         1,464        1,076          36.1        1,858           (21.2) IT services revenue grew by 4.7% QoQ while product revenues declined by 28.2% QoQ , resulting in 21.2% QoQ decline
Employee expenses           205           168          22.2           189              8.7  
Purchase of stock-in trade & other        1,036           743          39.4        1,457           (28.9)  
Gross Margin           222           164          35.2           212              4.7  
Gross margin (%)          15.2          15.3  -9 bps           11.4  376 bps   
Other expenses           114             61          86.3             81            41.6  
             
EBITDA           108           103            4.9           132           (17.9)  
EBITDA Margin (%)            7.4            9.6  -220 bps             7.1  30 bps  EBITDA margin for IT services declined by 50bps QoQ while that of product business was up 124bps QoQ
Depreciation & amortisation             13               9          39.3             13              3.1  
EBIT             95             94            1.4           119           (20.1)  
EBIT Margin (%)            6.5            8.7  -222 bps             6.4  9 bps   
 Other income (less interest)              41             15               11          284.9  
PBT           136           109          24.5           130              4.8  
Tax paid             35             26          34.3             32              9.4  
PAT           101             83          21.5             98              3.3  

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