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Shree Cement Ltd>
  • CMP : 24,444.9 Chg : 299.70 (1.24%)
  • Target : 24,300.0 (14.62%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

25 May 2022

Cost to remain higher in medium term; Rich valuation limits upside

About The Stock

Shree is the third largest cement group in India with domestic cement capacity of 46.4MT as of FY22. In the past 4 years, it has diversified itself from being 100% North player to the player with capacities now in Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Odisha.

  • It also has presence in UAE with integrated cement capacity of 4MT and 3.3MT clinker (located near port in Ras-Al-Khaimah).

Proximity to end user market, use of split grinding units and power capacity of 742MW (Including 211MW WHRS) makes it most efficient player in the Industry

Q4FY22

The performance remained below our estimates.

  • Revenue were up 3.6% YoY to ₹4098.7 crore. Sales volume were down 2.3% YoY to 8.0MT while realisation were up 6.0% YoY to ₹5105/t. However, on sequential basis, it declined by 5.8% that came in as negative surprise.
  • Margins declined 103bps QoQ to 22.2% (down 766bps YoY). However, it remained in-line with our estimates due to controlled expenses.

Reported PAT of ₹ 645 crore (down 16% YoY, up 31.1% QoQ) were higher than estimates due to tax adjustment (credit) of ₹100 crore

What should Investors do?

Cost leadership, strong presence in North & East along with robust balance sheet has provided an edge over its competitors.

  • With expected revenue CAGR of 14% and RoIC of 18%, we remain positive on the company. However, we maintain our HOLD due to rich valuations.
Target Price Valuation

Target Price and Valuation: We value Shree at ₹24,300 i.e.19x FY24E EV/EBITDA

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With commissioning of 3MT grinding unit in Maharashtra, domestic capacity has reached to 46.4MT in FY22. The clinker unit in Chhattisgarh (capacity of 12000t/day) has also got commissioned (capex ₹1000 crore).
  • Other new capex include 1) Setting up of new integrated unit with 3.5MT GU and 3.8MT clinker unit in Rajasthan by Q4FY24E at capex of $135/t 2) 3MT grinding unit in WB by Q4FY23E at capex of $34/t 3) 106MW solar power at capex of ₹4.7crore per megawatt.
  • The entire capex of ₹4750 crore till FY24E will be funded via internal accruals. Total domestic capacity to reach ~53MT post these expansions.

Company to continue to maintain its cost leadership & market share due to structural advantage it has in terms of accessing raw materials and markets

New Stock Ideas

In our cement sector coverage we also like Ultratech.

  • It is a market leader with strong brand in the retail segment.
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 8,000/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY21-FY23E)
Net Sales 11,722.0 11,904.0 12,652.9 14,305.9 6.9 16,530.2 18,632.2 14.1
EBITDA 2,652.8 3,674.5 3,979.3 3,647.8 11.2 3,624.4 4,409.8 9.9
EBITDA (%) 22.6 30.9 31.4 25.5 - 21.9 23.7 -
PAT 1,107.7 1,570.2 2,311.9 2,376.4 29.0 2,054.0 2,566.4 3.9
EPS (|) 318.3 435.2 640.7 658.6 - 569.2 711.2 -
EV/EBITDA 30.0 20.8 18.9 20.6 - 20.4 16.5 -
EV/Tonne ($) 264.1 223.9 220.1 225.2 - 181.7 179.1 -
RoNW 11.5 12.1 15.2 13.8 - 10.9 12.2 -
RoCE 11.5 13.8 18.2 16.1 - 14.0 15.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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