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  • CMP : 25,615.0 Chg : -30.0 (-0.12%)
  • Target : 25,700.0 (14.73%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

16 Mar 2022

Stable outlook; trading at premium valuations

About The Stock

Shree is the third largest cement group in India with domestic cement capacity of 43.4MT as of FY21. In the past 4 years, it has diversified itself from being 100% North player to the player with capacities now in Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Odisha.

  • It also has presence in UAE with integrated cement capacity of 4MT and 3.3MT clinker (located near port in Ras-Al-Khaimah).
  • Proximity to end user market, use of split grinding units and power capacity of 742MW (Including 211MW WHRS) makes it most efficient player in the Industry.
Q3FY22 Results

The performance remained ahead of our estimates.

  • Revenue were up 7.3% YoY on sustained higher realisations. Volumes were down 8.6% YoY on unseasonal rains and transporters strike in East.
  • EBITDA/t of ₹1260/t were down 17.1% YoY due to sharp rise in the fuel costs. Although, it was marginally above our estimates
  • PAT was down 21.4% YoY to ₹492.0 crore (vs I-direct est ₹457.5 crore.
  • Domestic sales volumes were at 6.55MT (down 8.6% YoY, up 4% QoQ) while blended realisations were higher by 17.4% YoY, 16.4% QoQ to ₹5,423/tonne.
  • Capacity utilisation stood at 60.4% vs 70.9% in Q3FY21.
  • Cost of production were higher by 34% YoY to ₹4,162/t led by sharp rise in the power & fuel expenses (up 59% YoY, 23.5% QoQ).  
  • Though, EBITDA/t were lower by 17.1% YoY to ₹1,260/t, it remained higher than our estimated EBITDA/t of ₹1,202/t.
  • The Board reappointed Mr. Prashant Bangur as Joint MD of the company for a further five years. It has also announced an interim dividend of ₹45/share.
What should Investors do?

Cost leadership, strong presence in North & East along with robust balance sheet has provided an edge over its competitors.

Target Price Valuation
  • With expected revenue CAGR of 16% and RoIC of 20%, we remain positive on company. However, downgrade rating to HOLD due to rich valuations.
  • Target Price and Valuation: We value Shree at ₹28,700 i.e.21.5x FY23E EV/EBITDA
Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With commissioning of 3MT grinding unit in Maharashtra, domestic capacity has reached to 46.4MT. The clinker unit in Chhattisgarh (capacity of 12000t/day) to get commissioned by H1FY23 (capex ₹1000 crore).
  • Other new capex include 1) Setting up of new integrated unit with 3.5MT GU and 3.8MT clinker unit in Rajasthan by Q4FY24E 2) 3MT grinding unit in WB by Q4FY23E 3) 106MW solar power.
  • The entire total capex of ₹4750 crore till FY24E will be funded via internal accruals. Total domestic capacity to reach 53.4MT post these expansions.
  • Company to continue to maintain its cost leadership & market share due to structural advantage it has in terms of accessing raw materials and markets
  • The likely price hikes to the tune of 4-5% to help improve the margins.
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Shree, in our cement sector coverage we also like Ultratech.

  • It is a market leader with strong brand in the retail segment.
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 9,300/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 3 Year CAGR FY22E FY23E 2 Year CAGR (FY21-FY23E)
Net Sales 9,833.0 11,722.0 11,904.0 12,653.0 8.8 14,500.0 17,102.0 16.3
EBITDA 2,473.0 2,653.0 3,675.0 3,979.0 17.2 3,654.0 3,936.0 -0.5
EBITDA (%) 25.1 22.6 30.9 31.4 - 25.2 23.0 -
PAT 1,384.0 1,108.0 1,570.0 2,312.0 18.6 2,153.0 2,161.0 -3.3
EPS (|) 398.0 318.0 435.0 641.0 - 597.0 599.0 -
EV/EBITDA 33.3 31.6 22.0 20.0 - 21.5 19.8 -
EV/Tonne ($) 359.0 279.0 237.0 233.0 - 235.0 203.0 -
RoNW 15.6 11.5 12.1 15.2 - 12.7 11.5 -
RoCE 15.3 11.5 13.8 18.2 - 15.7 14.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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