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Shree Cement Ltd>
  • CMP : 24,368.8 Chg : -57.10 (-0.23%)
  • Target : 28,500.0 (18.75%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

10 Feb 2023

Efficiency measures to help bring down cost further

About The Stock

Shree is the third largest cement group in India with domestic cement capacity of 46.4 MT as of FY22. In the past four years, it has diversified itself from being a 100% north player to a player with capacities now in Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Odisha.

  • It also has a presence in the UAE with integrated cement capacity of 4 MT and 3.3 MT clinker (located near port in Ras-Al-Khaimah)
  • Proximity to end user market, use of split grinding units and power capacity of 742 MW (Including 211 MW WHRS) makes it most efficient player in the Industry.
Q3FY23 Results:

Shree Cements’ operational results broadly remained in line. However, its net profit missed estimates due to higher depreciation charge.

  • Net revenues were up 14.6% YoY to ₹ 4068.8 crore (vs. I-direct estimate:
    ₹ 4167.2 crore)
  • EBITDA/tonne came in at ₹ 882/t (down 30% YoY, up 25.6% QoQ), in line with I-direct estimate of EBITDA/t ₹ 864/t
  • Further, higher depreciation led to PAT de-growth of 43.7% YoY to ₹ 276.7 crore vs. I-direct estimated profit of ₹ 308 crore
What should Investors do?

Cost leadership, strong presence in north & east along with robust balance sheet has provided it an edge over its competitors.

  • With expected revenue CAGR of 15.8% and RoIC of ~18%, we remain positive on the company and maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Shree at ₹ 28,500 i.e. 22x FY24E EV/EBITDA.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With commissioning of 3 MT grinding unit in Maharashtra, domestic capacity has reached to 46.4 MT in FY22. The clinker unit in Chhattisgarh (capacity of 12000t/day) has also got commissioned (capex ₹ 1000 crore)
  • Other new capex includes 1) new integrated unit with 3.5 MT GU and 3.8 MT clinker unit in Rajasthan by Q4FY24E at $135/t 2) 3 MT grinding unit in West Bengal by Q4FY23E at $34/t 3) 106 MW solar power (₹ 4.7 crore per MW), 4) 1.5 MT clinker and 3 MT greenfield cement capacities in Andhra Pradesh by FY25E with target to reach 80 MT capacity by 2030
    • The entire total capex of ₹ 6800 crore till FY25E will be funded via internal accruals. Total domestic capacity to reach ~56 MT post these expansions
    • The company to continue to maintain its cost leadership & market share due to structural advantage it has in terms of accessing raw materials, markets
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Shree, in our cement sector coverage we also like UltraTech.

  • It is a market leader with strong brand in the retail segment
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 8,050/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR (%) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (%)
Net Sales 11,722.0 11,904.0 12,652.9 14,305.9 6.9 16,300.2 19,168.1 15.8
EBITDA 2,652.8 3,674.5 3,979.3 3,647.8 11.2 2,953.4 4,540.5 11.6
EBITDA (%) 22.6 30.9 31.4 25.5 - 18.1 23.7 -
PAT 1,107.7 1,570.2 2,311.9 2,376.5 29.0 1,239.5 2,462.6 1.8
EPS (|) 318.3 435.2 640.7 658.6 - 343.5 682.5 -
EV/EBITDA 33.8 23.5 21.4 23.4 - 28.8 18.6 -
EV/Tonne ($) 298.6 254.4 250.6 256.3 - 209.8 208.5 -
RoNW 11.5 12.1 15.2 13.8 - 6.9 12.2 -
RoCE 11.5 13.8 18.2 16.1 - 9.4 15.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlights

  • Domestic sales volumes were at 8.05 MT (up 22.6% YoY, 7.7% QoQ). Blended realisations broadly remained flat QoQ.
  • Contrary to our expectations, cost of production declined further by 4.2% QoQ to | 4,185/tonne
  • EBITDA/t was down 30% YoY to | 882/t, mainly on account of weak realisations. However, it broadly remained in line with our estimated EBITDA/t of | 864/t
  • PAT was down 43.7% YoY to | 276.7 crore on higher depreciation. It remained lower than I-direct estimated profit of | 308 crore
 
Q3FY23 Conference call highlights:
  • The company witnessed healthy demand during the quarter with capacity utilisation increasing from 61% to 72% (YoY) in Q3FY23. Average realisations for cement (excluding power) grew 2% YoY to | 4854/t (Q2FY22: | 4805). Among regions, north and east operated at 73% while south was at 62%

 

  • Fuel prices declined from | 2.83/Kcal to | 2.53/Kcal on a sequential basis. However, it continued to remain elevated on a YoY basis (Q3FY22:
    | 1.69/Kcal). Fuel prices are expected to decline further in Q4FY23 (currently hovering at | 2.35/Kcal). Expects EBITDA/t to be close to ~| 1000 in Q4FY23

 

  • The company expects to exit FY23E with volumes to the tune of 32 million tonnes (implying ~ 9 MT in Q4FY23). Prices in January have been flattish compared to Q3 exit rates

 

  • Expect cement demand to remain healthy in FY24E given the governments focus on infrastructure spending. Over the medium term, the company expects demand (6-8% CAGR) to outstrip supply (3-4% CAGR)

 

  • The company is well on track to increase its current capacity of 46.4 MT to 55.9 MT by FY25E. It has reiterated its mission to reach 80 MT by FY30 (CAGR: 7%). The company incurred a capex of | 2200 crore in YTDFY23 and is expected to spend another | 700-800 crore in Q4FY23 (FY23 capex: | 2900 crore). For FY24E, it has given capex guidance of | 3300-3500 crore

 

  • The vision to achieve 80 MT by 20230 is currently expected to be driven through the organic route with focus on existing markets (currently not looking at the central region). The company indicated it has enough limestone reserves for its envisaged targets. In addition, it has acquired new limestone reserves in Gujarat (awaiting statuary approvals). The management indicated it is not looking to aggressively expand its capacities in tandem with other players and will only grow at a gradual pace

 

  • The company would strive to continue being the low cost producer and has embarked on the following steps:-

 

  • Increase proportion of rail dispatches from current 12% by developing railway sidings at new project sites as well at existing locations

 

  • Stepping up its efforts to increase use of agriculture and industrial waste to improve thermal substitution rate (TSR) from current 3.9% to 15% over the next couple of years. It will be installing state-of-the-art facilities by Q4FY23. This would significantly reduce the fuel cost as the management indicated that the price for TSR is
    | 1.5/kcal compared to pet coke, which is | 2.35/Kcal

 

  • Aims to increase the share of green energy in total energy consumption to >55% in the next two years from current 53% through higher installation of WHRS
 
  • Investing in brand equity to perk up sales of premium products and fetch higher realisations (current share: 7%, target: 15% in next three to four quarters)
 

Key triggers for future price performance

Stronghold over high growth markets of north, east regions

SCL is one of the strongest players in the northern region with operating units in Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Apart from a stronghold in north, which accounts for ~66% of revenues, the company also has increased its share in the east and south markets with operating units in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar as well as operating units in Karnataka. The share of eastern region increased from 21% in FY17 to 25% as of FY20. The company’s strategy to adopt split grinding units close to user markets has also provided efficiency in terms of logistics cost.

 

Operating efficiency remains best in industry

Being a pioneer in many cost initiatives, SCL enjoys strong operating efficiency which makes it one of the low cost producer in India. The strong efficiency arises on account of 1) 85% consumption of power from captive power plants including usage of WHRS, 2) higher sale of blended cement, 3) use of split-grinding units and 4) adequate limestone reserves.
 

Credible record of low leverage and healthy return ratios

Tracking the data since FY07, Shree Cement has always reported double-digit RoE; thus speaking strongly of the management’s efficient capital allocation. These healthy returns have been generated with net debt/EBITDA remaining below 1x throughout this period. We believe the same is going to be maintained while achieving the aim of doubling the capacity in every years. With surplus liquidity of over | 8000 crore the company is in the strong position to fund its new expansion involving capex of | 6,800 crore.
 

Disclaimer

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