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Shalby Ltd>
  • CMP : 279.8 Chg : -3.85 (-1.36%)
  • Target : 180.0 (16.88%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

20 Jan 2023

Sales in line but margins miss…

About The Stock

Started by renowned orthopaedic surgeon Dr Vikram Shah, Shalby is a multi-specialty hospitals chain with expertise in joint replacement.

  • Revenue-wise breakup Q3FY23: Arthroplasty: 43%, Critical care & General medicine: 9%, Cardiac science: 9%, Orthopaedic: 8%, Oncology: 10%, Neurology: 5%, Nephrology: 4%, Others: 11%
  • Shalby registered a blended ARPOB of ₹ 36,291 and ALOS of 3.74 days (without day care procedures) in Q3FY23
  • Acquisition of US based Consensus to diversify into related implant business besides supporting arthroplasty and orthopaedic segments
Q3FY23 Results

Revenues were flattish QoQ and in line with our expectations on account of lesser elective surgeries but margins missed on a QoQ basis due to higher-than-expected total expenditure

  • Revenues were flat QoQ to ₹ 202.5 crore
  • EBITDA was at ~₹ 34 crore, down 8.4% QoQ with margins at 16.8%
  • Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 15.3 crore (de-growth of ~17% QoQ)
What should Investors do?

Shalby’s share price has delivered 23.5% CAGR over the past three years (from ~₹ 101 in January 2020 to ~₹ 154 levels in January 2023).

We maintain BUY due to 1) Diversification towards other specialities especially high end surgeries 2) Asset light model via franchisee drive, 3) Launch of implant business in newer geographies and ramp up of production likely to aid growth

Target Price and Valuation

We value Shalby at ₹ 180 based on SOTP valuation

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Shalby is a market leader in arthroplasty procedure with ~15% market share of all joint replacement surgeries by organised private corporate hospitals
  • Diversification of arthroplasty and orthopaedics with cardiac science, oncology and neuro-science, additional 40% bed capacity available to support organic growth.
  • Re-establishment of implant business in core-markets while creating a platform to enter growth markets with goal of ₹ 100 crore revenue in FY23
  • Set on an inspirational target to achieve 2.5x sales in the next three to five years on the back of expansion to 50 franchises in next three years, better occupancies and new service offerings (home care & Shalby Care cards)
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides Shalby, in our hospital coverage we like Narayana.

  • It operates a chain of multispecialty, tertiary & primary healthcare facilities. Operations are improving on the back of judicious case mix identification.
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 855

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23E-FY25E)
Revenues 486.9 430.9 698.9 16.6 813.2 931.9 1,067.8 0.1
EBITDA 81.7 86.4 119.9 10.9 153.5 183.3 206.6 0.1
EBITDA margins (%) 16.8 20.1 17.2 - 18.9 19.7 19.3 -
Net Profit 27.6 42.4 54.0 13.5 74.6 102.2 123.5 0.2
EPS (|) 2.6 3.9 5.4 - 6.9 9.5 11.4 -
PE (x) 57.2 37.2 29.1 - 21.1 15.4 12.8 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 19.2 17.6 13.3 - 10.2 8.2 6.9 -
RoCE (%) 7.2 6.5 8.4 - 11.5 13.9 15.7 -
ROE (%) 3.5 5.1 6.7 - 8.0 10.1 11.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Results: Flattish quarter on account of lesser elective surgeries 

  • Revenues were flat QoQ at | 202.5 crore on account of fewer surgeries taking place due to festive quarter. It was at 6,782 in Q3FY23 against 6,806 in Q2FY23. On the operational front, EBITDA showed de growth of 8.4% QoQ to ~| 34 crore. EBITDA margins saw a QoQ decline of 160 bps due to rise in total expenditure. PAT came at | 15.3 crore, down ~17% QoQ
  • Q3 results were in line with our estimates on the revenue front but missed our estimates on the margin front. Arthroplasty (~15% market share) in Q3FY23 contributed 43% of revenue vis-a-vis 39% in Q2FY23. In asset light franchise model, Shalby remains focused on having over 50 Shalby franchise hospital across India within the next three years. Shalby continues to maintain leadership position in arthroplasty but has also transformed itself as a multispecialty hospital with diversified revenue mix. Shalby’s strategic initiatives are expected to drive its sustainable growth momentum in the coming years

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Segmental performance: 

  • Hospital business continued to show a good performance through overall performance from various hospitals
  • Total surgeries count for Q3FY23 was 6,782 vs. 6,806 in Q2FY23. Knee and hip implantation has made steady progress in Q3FY23
  • Total inpatient count in Q3FY23 came in at 11,713 vs. 12,606 in Q2FY23. Total beds occupied in Q3FY23 were at 544 vs. 600 in Q2FY23 with occupancy rate hovering around 43.2% vs. 49% in Q2FY23. Average revenue per operating bed (ARPOB) during Q3FY23 was | 36,291 vs. | 33,439 in Q2FY23 and average length of stay was 3.7 in Q3FY23 vs. 3.9 days in Q2FY23. Home care revenue was | 2.65 crore vs. | 2.25 crore in Q2FY23
  • In Q3FY23, Shalby hospitals in existence for up to 10 years contributed 60% to revenue with EBITDA margins of ~15% and for mature hospitals in existence for 10+ years contributed 40% to revenues where EBITDA margins were at ~36%
  • In Q3FY23, Shalby Consensus posted revenues of | 22.8 crore, of which sales to India were at ~| 9 crore. It improved production capacity by ~50% to average 4,500 components through the year. Out of US customer sales, mix retail contributed 59% and wholesale 41%. The management remains confident of achieving | 100 crore sales and positive EBITDA in FY23
  • On the expenses front, manufacturing costs are declining due to introduction of newer products in implant business. It could manage to bring down the raw material cost by 50% of components, which supported COGS. It also plans to bring it down to 30-35% of overall costs, which should aid operational performance in the coming quarters
  • It has concrete plans to launch implants in Indonesia, Argentina and Middle East regions. It finds realisation in Japan and the US comparatively higher compared to India and Indonesia business as it will be more of volume game than margin

Growth Opportunities:

  • Mumbai & Nashik region are the newer opportunities, which will be coming in. The expected capex would of ~Rs 200 crore.
  • The franchise businesses (Lucknow & Ahmedabad) are already operational, whereas during the quarter it has signed MoU at Aurangabad & Rajkot.
  • The company has shortlisted 30 cities where it plans to open up the franchises over the next 3 to 5 years. 

Other highlights: 

  • Day time occupancy is 15% higher than reported night time bed occupancy
  • It does not require additional capex for increasing operational beds. Targets 15- 20% growth in operational beds from current levels. Plans to reach 2000 operational beds in the coming years
  • The spread between Shalby operated and managed is 50:50 as on date
  • It intends to change the revenue mix in the ratio of US 40% and RoW 60% in the coming years
  • Its three units SG, Indore and Jaipur are performing at peak utilisation
  • Focus remains on adding more international patients for high end and rare surgeries

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Siddhant Khandekar-Inter CA, Kushal Shah-CFA L1, CFP, Utkarsh Jain -MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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