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  • CMP : 2,381.7 Chg : 26.10 (1.11%)
  • Target : 2,235.0 (12.48%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

08 Aug 2022

Higher RM cost drags margin…

About The Stock

Shaily Engineering is into manufacturing high precision injection moulded plastic components and finished goods in home furnishing, healthcare, toys, personal care and automotive components.

  • Export revenue contributed ~76% to the topline in FY22 while the rest came from the domestic business for Shaily
  • The company’s biggest clients include a Swedish furnishing major, which contributes ~55% to the topline
Q1FY23 Results

Delay in price hikes drags EBITDA margin; strong topline growth continues amid ramp up of new capacities.

  • Revenue grew ~43% YoY to ₹ 172 crore led by 60% volume growth. Strong volume growth was led by execution of orders in the Furnishing and healthcare segments
  • The EBITDA margin declined 439 bps YoY to 11.4%, mainly due to a delay in passing on of high raw material costs
  • PAT declined 8% YoY to ~ ₹ 7 crore, tracking high depreciation and lower EBITDA margins in Q1FY23
What should Investors do?

Shaily Engineering’s share price has grown by ~3.15x over five years (from ~₹ 630 in August 2017 to ~₹ 1987 levels in August 2022).

We have revised our rating from BUY to HOLD

Target Price and Valuation

We value Shaily at ₹ 2235 i.e. 29x on FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The company envisaged ~₹ 200 crore of capex plans for FY22E-24E to ramp up capacity in toys, healthcare and home furnishings
  • New client additions will help drive healthcare segment revenue to 2-3x in the next three to five years. The company has added two new clients in the toy segment (Spin Master, Hasbro)
  • Incremental sales of high margin products (like healthcare) will help drive EBITDA margins for the company
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Supreme Industries in our coverage.

Supreme Industries (SIL) is India’s leading plastic processing company. It is the market leader in the PVC pipe industry with a value market share of 15%. It has a robust balance sheet with RoE & RoCE of 24% & 27% (five-year average)

BUY with a target price of ₹ 2175

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 338.3 336.0 360.6 565.9 0.2 702.1 862.7 0.2
EBITDA 52.6 58.1 59.6 81.0 0.1 98.1 138.0 0.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.6 17.3 16.5 14.3 - 14.0 16.0 -
Reported PAT 19.3 23.6 22.0 35.1 0.2 44.4 71.7 0.4
EPS (|) 23.2 28.4 26.5 38.3 - 48.4 78.1 -
P/E 85.7 70.0 75.1 51.9 - 41.0 25.4 -
P/BV (x) 12.1 10.4 9.1 5.0 - 4.5 3.8 -
Mcap/Sales (x) 5.4 5.4 5.1 3.2 - 2.6 2.1 -
RoCE (%) 16.2 14.2 10.8 11.4 - 13.0 17.4 -
RoNW (%) 14.2 14.8 12.1 9.6 - 11.0 15.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Production ramp up drives volume growth; EBITDA margin pressure continues amid high raw material costs

  • Standalone revenue increased ~43% YoY to | 172 crore, supported by ~60% volume growth in Q1FY23. Strong volume growth was supported by launch of new products for a Swedish furnishing major and ramp up of toy and health care products. On a three-year basis, revenue grew at a CAGR of 29% led by same amount of volume growth
  • Shaily witnessed a sharp fall in gross margin by 642 bps YoY (138 bps QoQ) mainly due to a delay in passing on of raw material prices. However, savings in other costs restricted the overall fall in EBITDA margins at 439 bps to 11.4% in Q1FY23
  • Higher deprecation provision (increased 32% YoY) indicates ramp up of new capacities. This coupled with lower EBITDA margin dragged PAT lower by 8% YoY to ~| 7 crore in Q1FY23

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Demand Outlook: 

  • Revenue growth in Q1FY23 was led by improved traction across segments and ramp up in projects. The healthcare and toy segment have aided the revenue growth
  • The company has also added new SKUs in home furnishing segment and medical devices
  • Going forward, Shaily aims to increase its domestic business significantly
  • The company is deepening its foray into contract manufacturing of medical devices and has recently signed an order for the same. Shaily plans to launch dry powder inhaler and a new drug applicator for the oncology segments
  • The management expects performance in Q2FY23 to be on the same lines as Q1FY23. From Q3FY23 onwards, the management expects improved traction across its segments 
  • The company is expecting new orders in FY24 and expects to see better performance from FY24 onwards
  • The management is aiming at long term revenue CAGR of ~20%

 

Margins:

  • Currently, Shaily is seeing changes in its product mix, which has affected the margins. Volatility in raw material prices as well as weakening rupee against dollar have impacted margins adversely. The management expects margin expansion from Q3FY23 onwards led by higher volume growth and normalisation of raw material prices 
  • For ~80% of its business, the company passes on the price changes on a quarterly basis

Capex:

  • The company envisages capex of | 120 crore in FY23, largely towards healthcare segments. The management reiterated | 200 crore capex in the next two years
Variance Analysis:
  Q1FY23 Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
Revenue 172.0 120.1 43.2 152.6 12.7 Strong revenue growth led by volume growth of 60% YoY
Other Income 2.1 1.2 72.2 2.8 -24  
             
Raw Material Exp 115.8 73.1 58.3 100.6 15.0  
 Gross margin  32.7 39.1 -642 bps 34.0 -138 bps Delay in passing of higher raw material prices led to drop in gross margin
Employee Exp 12.2 10.4 17.9 12.0 2.1  
Power & Fuel 8.5 5.7 48.9 6.6 29.2  
Other Expenses 15.9 12.0 33.0 14.7 8.3  
EBITDA 19.6 18.9 3.4 18.7 4.4  
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.4 15.8 -439 bps 12.3 -90 bps Better operating leverage helped partially offset the adverse impact of higher raw material prices. As a result, EBITDA margin fall was restricted at ~439 bps YoY
Depreciation 7.8 5.9 32.0 6.9 13.4  
Interest 4.0 3.6 9.8 4.7 -15.9  
             
PBT 9.9 10.6 -6.8 9.9 -0.1  
Total Tax 2.5 2.6 -3.1 2.5 0.2  
PAT 7.4 8.0 -8.0 7.4 -0.1 Lower PAT is mainly due to sharp fall in EBITDA margin
             
Key Metrics            
Volume 6544.0 4093.0 59.9 5562.0 17.7 Launch of new products, ramp up in toy and healthcare business drives volume growth in Q1

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