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  • CMP : 2,028.4 Chg : 14.0 (0.69%)
  • Target : 1,400.0 (31.21%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

15 Mar 2022

Healthy premium growth; outlook optimistic

About The Stock

SBI Life (SBIL) is among most dominant players in the Indian life insurance industry with strong distribution network, parentage, operating metrics.

  • Balanced product mix with focus on opex ratio ahead of industry
  • Strong parentage led distribution remains key catalyst
Q3FY22

Healthy business traction, outlook optimistic.

  • Gross premium growth healthy at 31% YoY; NBP growth at 56% YoY
  • VNB margins healthy at 21.9%, aided by product mix and rise in pricing
  • PAT at ₹ 236 crore, aided by healthy premium accretion
  • Net Covid claim at ₹ 1530 crore for 9MFY22; Covid reserve at ₹ 270 crore
What should Investors do?

SBIL’s share price has grown by ~1.7x over the past four years (from ~₹ 700 in October 2017 to ~₹ 1214 levels in January 2022).

  • Factoring in distribution strength & diversified product mix, we retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value SBIL at 2.8x FY24 EV with revised TP of ₹ 1400

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Launch of non-par & protection product to aid overall growth and VNB
  • Product mix & improvement in persistency to aid VNB margins at 21-22%
  • Covid claim seen to moderate; reserves at ₹ 270 crore seem comfortable
  • Strong distribution network remains core to maintain business momentum
New Stock Ideas
  • Apart from SBIL, in our coverage we also like HDFC Life.

    • Dominant player in life insurance industry with huge growth potential coupled with strong distribution, product suite and best VNB margin

     

    • BUY with a target price of ₹ 800

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21E 4 Year CAGR(FY16-FY20) FY22E FY23E FY24E 3 Year CAGR (FY21-FY24E)
New business premium 13,792.0 16,592.5 20,624.2 0.2 24,576.9 28,331.0 32,677.0 0.2
APE 9,530.7 10,505.2 11,366.7 0.1 13,427.0 15,614.4 18,166.0 0.2
Total premium 32,890.4 40,324.0 49,768.3 0.2 58,633.8 67,764.2 78,413.0 0.2
PAT 1,326.8 1,422.2 1,455.9 0.1 553.6 1,751.0 2,352.3 0.2
EV 22,402.8 26,290.0 33,386.0 0.2 39,340.4 46,069.1 53,851.1 0.2
P/E (x) 93.2 87.0 85.0 - 223.4 70.6 52.6 -
P/BV (x) 16.3 14.1 11.9 - 11.7 10.4 9.0 -
P/IEV (x) 5.5 4.7 3.7 - 3.1 2.7 2.3 -
RoEV (%) 17.4 20.5 19.1 - 19.5 19.9 20.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY22 Results: Healthy performance; Covid claims moderate

  •                 Premium growth healthy at 31% YoY to | 18025 crore, led by 56.3% YoY traction in NBP | 8503 crore and ~14.4% YoY growth in renewals to | 9653 crore
  • For 9MFY22, healthy traction in individual business at 43% YoY to | 11610 crore, primarily led by rise in unit linked business
  • Protection business (individual + group) continued to report strong growth at 26% YoY to | 2040 crore. Proportion of total protection NBP to total NBP was at ~11% in 9MFY22
  •                 As a result of healthy growth in protection and annuity business, VNB margins improved from 21.9% to 19.3% YoY
  •                 AUM growth accelerated 23% YoY to | 256870 crore
  •                 Commission ratio increased ~20 bps YoY to 3.4% in Q3FY21 while opex ratio declined to 4.4% in Q3FY22. Consequently, total cost ratio declined by ~ 60 bps YoY to 7.8%
  • Solvency ratio remained steady at healthy level of 2.09x

Q3FY22 earnings conference call highlights

  •                 Individual rated new business premium were at | 9070 crore with market share of 24.8% in 9MFY22 with improvement of 143 basis points over 9MFY21 while Individual new business premium was at | 19790 crore with private market share of 23.7%
  •                 New partnerships such as Indian Bank, Uco Bank, South Indian Bank, Yes Bank and Punjab Sind Bank registered growth of 48%. These relationships contribute almost 3% of the individual APE as on December 31, 2021
  •                 Covid claims net of reinsurance paid as well as outstanding were at | 1530 crore. The company has kept additional reserve amounting to | 270 crore for Covid-19 pandemic over and above the policy liabilities
  •                 Other channels like direct, corporate agents, brokers, online and web aggregators grew 69% in terms of individual new business premium and 50% in Individual APE. New business premium through other channel registered growth of 61%
  •                 In annuity, individual annuity was at | 1200 crore while group annuity was
    | 1443 crore. Under group protection business, credit life was at | 1140 crore while GTI was at | 280 crore
  • The         management expects product mix at 12-15% in protection, 15-20% in non-par platina or similar products, annuities at 10% with remaining share that of Ulips
  •                 Volume of business, product mix and pricing has helped in VNB margin expansion by 260 bps from 19.3% in 9MFY21 to 21.9% in 9MFY22
 
  Q3FY22 Q3FY22E Q3FY21 YoY (%) Q2FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
First Year Premium 4,073.6 4,105.7 3,276.5 24.3 3,609.7 12.8   ULIP and protection business contributed to premium growth
Renewal Premium 9,652.9 10,189.5 8,435.6 14.4 7,775.1 24.2    
Single Premium 4,429.4 4,316.8 2,162.3 104.8 3,333.8 32.9    
Net Premium income 18,025 17,770 13,766 30.9 14,661 23.0    
Income from Investments 2,424.1 6,271.1 12,776.9 -81.0 10,734.4 -77.4   Income from investment remained muted YoY
Total revenue 20,458.3 24,061 26,551.9 -22.9 25,404.1 -19.5    
                 
Commission 614.6 675.3 517.2 18.8 529.9 16.0   Commission ratio remained steady at 3.4%
Operating expenses 787.6 888.5 645.3 22.0 747.6 5.4    
Management Expenses 1,402.1 1,563.7 1,162.5 20.6 1,277.5 9.8   Mgt expense ratio lower at 7.8%
Benefits paid 6,472.6 11,106.1 4,643.9 39.4 12,702.1 -49.0   Moderation in Covid claims
Change in Actuarial Liability 12,115.1 10,872.3 20,243.6 -40.2 10,978.1 10.4    
Total Expenses 20,222.2 23,788.8 26,255.4 -23.0 25,148.0 -19.6    
                 
Surplus/ (deficit) 236.1 272.1 296.5 -20.4 256.1 -7.8   Higher benefit paid kept surplus lower
Transfer to SHs A/c 168.3 90.0 65.7 156.0 134.3 25.3    
                 
Transfer to SHs A/c 168.3 90.0 65.7 156.0 134.3 25.3    
Investment income 222.5 224.6 174.5 27.5 240.6 -7.5    
Profit/ (loss) before tax 381.4 297.6 233.1 63.6 251.9 51.4    
PAT 364.1 276.8 232.9 56.3 246.6 47.6   Higher appropriation supports PAT
                 
Key Metrics                
NBP 8,502.9 8,422.5 5,438.8 56.3 6,943.6 22.5    
AUM 2,56,870 2,50,844 2,09,500 22.6 2,44,180 5.2    
IEV* 35,290.0 NA 29,860.0 18.2 NA NA    

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ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

 

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%


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