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  • CMP : 869.9 Chg : 21.70 (2.56%)
  • Target : 1,100.0 (17.15%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

02 Aug 2022

Spends gain momentum, Revolver mix improves

About The Stock

SBI Cards is subsidiary of State Bank of India (69.2% stake) and is the second largest credit card issuer in India.

  • Market share in terms of cards issued is 18.4% and spends is 18.6%
  • High margin business with strong return ratios, +5% RoA and +20% RoE
Q1FY23 Results
  • Spends up 79.4% YoY, 10% QoQ at ₹59671 crore, retail spends up 68% YoY
  • NII growth at 17% YoY & 8%QoQ to ₹1079 crore, NIMs stable at 13.2%
  • C/I ratio down 106 bps QoQ to 56.3%; provision fall 30% YoY to ₹450 crore
  • GNPA stable at 2.24% versus 2.22% QoQ; RBI Re at 0% of net loans
What should Investors do?

SBI Cards’ stock price has given over 25% returns since its listing in March 2020. We believe with pick up in segments like travel and entertainment as pandemic effect wanes and some regulatory changes could favour overall industry and thus SBI cards as well.

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value SBI Cards at ~34x FY24E EPS (~8.1x FY24E ABV) and revise our target price to ₹1100 from ₹ 1000 earlier.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Improving trends in travel and entertainment segments to propel growth
  • Increase in revolver rate and EMI conversion to support margins
  • Prospects of UPI-linked to Rupay cards are positive for company
  • Increasing competitive intensity from competitors and new age fintechs (BNPL) remains a challenge
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from SBI Cards, in our coverage we like Bajaj Finance.

  • It is a dominant player in consumer finance space and has put up a superior performance over the past many years in terms of growth and profitability.

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 8500

Key financial summary

| Crore FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR (FY19-22E) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
NII          3,884            3,839                14.4           4,801           6,303                       28.1
PPP          3,962            4,428                21.3           6,014           7,328                       28.6
PAT             985            1,616                23.2           2,201           2,737                       30.1
EPS (|)               10                 17                  23                32  
ABV (|) 64.1 80.1   98.1 132.8  
P/ABV 14.7 11.7   9.6 7.1  
RoA 3.8 5.2   5.3 5.0  
RoE            16.9              23.0               25.5             25.8  

 

 

Variance Table


  Q1FY23 Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 1,079 924 16.8 999 8.0 Driven by steady nims and uptick in loans
NIM (%) 13.2 14.8 -160 bps 13.2 0 bps incresed revolver rate helps margins
Other Income 1,877 1,298 44.6 1,750 7.2 strong growth in spends aids fee income
             
Net Total Income 2,956 2,222 33.0 2,749 7.5  
Staff cost 139 116 19.8 121 14.9  
Other Operating Expenses 1,525 1,052 45.0 1,456 4.7 C/I ratio down 106 bps to 56.3%
             
PPP 1,292 1,054 22.6 1,172 10.2  
Provision 450 644 -30.1 393 14.5 credit cost decline YoY as asset quality improves
PBT 842 410 105.4 779 8.1  
Tax Outgo 214 105 103.8 198 8.1  
PAT 628 305 105.9 581 8.1 Boosted by healthy top-line and low credit cost
             
Key Metrics            
GNPA 2.2 3.9 -167 bps 2.2 2 bps Largely stable as business activity remains normal
NNPA 0.79 0.9 -9 bps 0.78 1 bps  
Spends 59,671 33,260 79.4 54,134 10.2 Corporate and retail spends drive growth


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