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SBI Cards & Payment Services Ltd>
  • CMP : 722.6 Chg : -27.85 (-3.71%)
  • Target : 950.0 (14.46%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

01 Nov 2022

Near term pressure; gradual revival anticipated…

About The Stock

SBI Cards is a subsidiary of State Bank of India (69.2% stake) and is the second largest credit card issuer in India.

  • Market share in terms of cards issued is 19.1% and spends is 18.0%
  • High margin business with strong return ratios, +5% RoA and +20% RoE
Q2FY23

Continued downward trend in revolver & NIM.

  • Spends up 43% YoY, 4.4% QoQ at ₹ 62306 crore, retail spends up 45% YoY
  • NII growth at 21.4% YoY & 3.4%QoQ to ₹ 1116 crore, NIMs decline to 12.3%
  • C/I ratio up 522 bps QoQ to 59.4%; provision fell 8.1% YoY to ₹ 546 crore
  • GNPA declined to 2.1% vs. 2.2% QoQ; RBI Re at 0% of net loans
What should Investors do?

SBI Cards’ stock price has given over 31% returns since its listing in March 2020. Uptick in funding cost & lower revolver rate remain near term headwinds, though pick-up in spends and steady market share bode well.

  • We downgrade the stock from BUY to HOLD rating
Target Price and Valuation

We value SBI Cards at ~30x FY24E EPS (~7.1x FY24E ABV) and lower our target price from ₹ 1100 to ₹ 950.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Lower revolver, increase in CoF and regulatory restrictions on fees and penalties to act as near term overhang
  • Investments in marketing & distribution to aid improving trends in travel, hotel, leisure and entertainment spends
  • Steady market share, product launches and pick up in spends to gradually convert into revolvers, thereby aiding valuation ahead
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from SBI Cards, in our coverage we like Bajaj Finance.

  • It is a dominant player in consumer finance space and has put up a superior performance over the past many years in terms of growth and profitability

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 8650

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR (FY19-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
NII 2,566.4 3,540.4 3,884.3 3,838.7 14.4 4,364.8 5,907.3 24.1
PPP 2,482.8 3,669.9 3,962.3 4,428.0 21.3 5,412.5 6,827.2 24.2
PAT 865.0 1,244.8 984.5 1,616.1 23.2 2,248.1 2,747.2 30.4
EPS (|) 9.5 13.4 10.5 17.1 - 23.8 32.0 -
ABV (|) 41.0 55.2 64.1 80.1 - 98.5 133.2 -
P/ABV 20.2 15.0 13.0 10.4 - 8.4 6.2 -
RoA 4.8 5.5 3.8 5.2 - 5.4 5.0 -
RoE 29.1 27.9 16.9 23.0 - 26.0 25.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q2FY23 Q2FY22 YoY (%) Q1FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 1,116 919 21.4 1,079 3.4 Driven by uptick in loans
NIM (%) 12.3 14.1 -180 bps 13.2 -90 bps Led by elevated CoF
Other Income 1,969 1,523 29.3 1,877 4.9 Strong growth in spends aids fee income
             
Net Total Income 3,085 2,442 26.4 2,956 4.4  
Staff cost 129 115 12.2 139 -7.2  
Other Operating Expenses 1,705 1,269 34.4 1,525 11.8 C/I ratio up 276 bps YoY to 59.4%
             
PPP 1,251 1,058 18.3 1,292 -3.2  
Provision 546 594 -8.1 450 21.3 Credit cost up 53 bps QoQ
PBT 705 464 52.1 842 -16.3  
Tax Outgo 180 119 51.3 214 -15.9  
PAT 525 345 52.4 628 -16.4 YoY performance driven by decent topline 
             
Key Metrics            
GNPA 2.1 3.4 -122 bps 2.2 -10 bps Largely stable as business activity remains normal
NNPA 0.78 0.9 -13 bps 0.79 -1 bps  
Spends 62,306 43,560 43.0 59,671 4.4 Corporate and retail spends drive growth
Loans 36,500 25,394 43.7 32,079 13.8  
CIF 1.48 1.26 17.5 1.43 3.5  

 

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Industry spends were up 53% YoY in September 2022, led by festive season spends, improving economic activities, etc
  • MoM there was a marginal decline in total cards as RBI norms on inactive cards kicked in. The company has maintained a strategy of fee based card. As more than 95% of portfolio consist of spends or balance active cards, the impact of RBI norms on the company is limited
  • Linking Rupay credit card to UPI is expected to expand the usage of credit cards. Hence, credit card user base is expected to expand from current 250 mn to 750 mn in the next five years
  • Healthy growth in electronics, hotel, restaurant, entertainment and furnishing segment
  • Customer acquisition was led by end to end digital journey. Sustained growth during the quarter was driven by key initiatives like cashback SBI card, 1600 plus offers
  • Spends per average card increased from | 1.42 lakh to | 1.7 lakh
  • Cost to income was on account of investment to drive business volume of new accounts. CI is expected to remain elevated in Q3FY23 on increased focus on new customer acquisition
  • Gross credit cost at 6.2% from 5.6% in Q1FY23, mainly due to increase in stage 1 asset
  • CoF increased from 5.1% to 5.4% QoQ. The full impact of higher rates is expected to be seen in further quarters
  • The management is hopeful of seeing healthy discretionary spends in coming quarters
  • Margins likely to be ~10 bps +/- with cost of fund going up by 40-50 bps

Disclaimer

 

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                

 

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