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Saregama India Ltd>
  • CMP : 431.3 Chg : 6.25 (1.47%)
  • Target : 480.0 (11.89%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

04 May 2022

Strong performance!

About The Stock

Saregama India (Saregama) is India’s oldest music label with ~1.42 lakh songs across various languages, which is monetised over various formats such as digitals (streaming, YouTube), physical (Carvaan) and television.

  • Apart from music, it is also into TV serials /(Tamil) and creates low budget films as well as web series for OTT platforms through Yoodlee Films
Q4FY22

Saregama reported a healthy set of numbers.

  • Revenues were up ~46% YoY to ₹ 180.2 crore, led by TV & films segment, up 150% YoY at ₹ 52.5 crore, as two films (‘Zombivili’ and ‘Habbadi’) and one regional web series was licenced during the quarter. Music segment was up 25.5% YoY. Carvaan sales volumes were up 2% YoY to 1.12 lakh units, while licencing revenues continued to be robust. For FY22, licencing revenues at ₹ 358.5 crore, grew by ~26% YoY
  • EBITDA grew 50% YoY (down 5% QoQ) to ₹ 51.4 crore with EBITDA margin at 28.5%, up 80 bps YoY (down 7600 bps QoQ owing to revenues mix)
  • Consequent PAT was at ₹ 48.2 crore (up 30% YoY) 
What should Investors do?

Saregama’s share price has grown by ~16.6x over the past five years (from ~₹ 24 in May 2017 to ~₹ 429 levels in May 2022).

  • We expect digital monetisation to provide sustained growth. However, given the demanding valuations, we maintain HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

 We value Saregama at revised target price ₹ 480, at 40x FY24 P/E, after marginally tweaking our earnings estimates

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Growth trajectory in music licencing, which management envisages to grow at ~25% in medium term, along with new content performance
  • Recovery in Carvaan on the back of economic reopening and expansion in movies and web series segment
New Stock Ideas

Besides Saregama, we like Inox Leisure in Media coverage

  • Beneficiary of cinemas recovery & merger synergy
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 670

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 yr CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 yr CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales (| crore) 544.7 521.5 442.0 580.6 21.6 721.1 907.9 25.0
EBITDA (| crore) 38.2 60.5 130.1 187.1 81.8 227.0 290.9 24.7
Net Profit (| crore) 54.3 43.9 112.6 153.9 77.8 180.0 231.5 22.7
EPS (|) 3.1 2.5 6.5 8.0 - 9.3 12.0 -
P/E (x) 137.7 170.3 66.5 53.8 - 46.0 35.8 -
Price / Book (x) 17.5 18.8 14.8 6.0 - 5.4 5.4 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 193.7 122.5 55.4 34.6 - 28.1 22.1 -
RoCE (%) 16.5 14.7 27.8 14.6 - 15.7 19.8 -
RoE (%) 12.7 11.0 22.3 11.2 - 11.8 15.1 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key Business triggers

Licensing revenues to remain robust

The guidance for licensing revenue (B2B) growth was at 22-25%, ahead of expected industry growth of 15%, as the company wants to gain higher share in new content across Hindi and regional languages, also wants to acquire small and mid-sized catalogue to plug in the content gaps of last 25 years. For FY22, licencing revenues at | 358.5 crore, grew ~26% YoY. We estimate ~25% CAGR in B2B (licensing) music sales in FY22-24E to | 560 crore as monetisation of existing IPs via digital platforms and new music acquisition as well as catalogue acquisition will drive growth. It has guided for 32-34% operating margins (before content charge). We build in 0.5 mn and 0.65 mn units in FY23 and FY24, respectively for Carvaan and expect 27% CAGR in revenues in FY22-24 to | 169 crore. Minimal marketing spends on Carvaan have ensured that Carvaan is just breaking even and the company guided for low marketing expense for few more quarters till the Carvaan sales volume picks up sharply. Furthermore, focus on transitioning Carvaan from one -time margin Product to recurring revenue generating Platform will continue.

TV, films provide healthy growth tailwinds…

Two films (‘Zombivili’ and ‘Habbadi’) and one regional web series were licenced during the quarter. The company has also announced a couple of other web series and are expected to be complete in next few months. During FY22, TV and films revenues at | 102.4 crore, up 96% YoY, with operating margins of ~15%. The management has reiterated that it would only make pre-licenced films and web series, except for regional movies, thereby minimising the uncertainty. The management has reiterated its target for Yoodlee films to clock | 100+ crore revenues in the next couple of years and expect ~25% revenues CAGR in TV & films segment ahead. We estimate ~28% CAGR in TV & films in FY22-24E to | 169 crore. Furthermore, the company has also entered the events business (mainly for musical events) and talent management business (whereby it will nurture the young talents and provide opportunities in big production projects subsequently banking on commission income the talent earns in the future). It expects 5-7% margin in events business. It has started the event business with music tour of Diljeet Dosanj in Q1FY23.

Unit economics of music licensing business

The unit economics for music licensing is as follows-

  • Free platform- The company claims to earn 10 paisa per stream
  • Subscription model (very miniscule currently)- The streaming platform creates a content pool out of 50% of the subscription charges. This pool is divided among the licensing companies on the basis of streams made by the customer during the subscription period. The company expects this phase of business expansion to be a key game changer for growth in the medium to long term.

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