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Sanofi India Ltd>
  • CMP : 8,525.1 Chg : 199.55 (2.40%)
  • Target : 6,885.0 (7.11%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

27 Jul 2022

Q2 muted on high base of Covid and divestments…

About The Stock

Sanofi offers drugs in therapies like diabetes (insulins & orals), cardiology, pain, allergy and epilepsy.

  • Around 70% of sales stem from top 7 brands. Lantus, Allegra & Combiflam are in Top 100 pharmaceutical brands in India
  • Sanofi enjoys strong brand recall in anti-diabetic therapy in India
Q2CY22

Sanofi India reported muted numbers this quarter amid divested business and Covid sales in base year.

  • Revenues were down 11.4% YoY to ₹ 699.3 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 161.1 crore, down 34.8% YoY with margins at 23%

Consequent PAT was at ₹ 120.4 crore (down 32.5% YoY)

What should Investors do?

Sanofi’s share price has remained flat over the past three years (from ~₹ 6182 in July 2019 to ~₹ 6413 in July 2022).

We maintain HOLD rating on the stock due to lack of visible growth triggers and ramp up in ex-power brand portfolio.  

Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹6885 i.e. 26x P/E on FY24E EPS on ₹ 264.8

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Focus on high margin portfolio through divesture of tail brands
  • Strong balance sheet, good dividend pay-out track record and comfort on corporate governance
  • Consistent performer in Anti-Diabetic and Cardiac along with increasing contribution from Respiratory, Analgesics and Gastro-Intestinal therapies
  • Price led growth in H2CY22 on back of 10.8% price hike in NLEM portfolio
  • Access to innovative molecules from parent like anti-diabetic drug Toujeo
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Sanofi, among MNC coverage we like Abbott.

  • Abbott India is one of the fastest growing listed MNC pharma companies in women’s health, GI, metabolic, pain, CNS among others. We continue to believe in Abbott’s strong growth track in power brands and capability in new launches on a fairly consistent basis.
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 20560

Key Financial Summary

Particulars CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 5 Year CAGR(CY16-CY21) CY22E CY23E 2 Year CAGR (CY21-FY23E)
Revenues 2,770.8 3,070.6 2,901.9 2,956.6 4.6 2,864.9 3,130.2 2.9
EBITDA 623.5 665.3 713.1 762.5 7.3 707.3 802.8 2.6
EBITDA margins (%) 22.5 21.7 24.6 25.8 - 24.7 25.6 -
Net Profit 380.6 414.2 477.6 944.4 25.4 622.9 609.8 -19.6
EPS (|) 165.3 205.6 225.5 250.6 - 233.0 264.8 -
PE (x) 42.4 38.9 33.8 17.1 - 23.8 24.3 -
M.Cap/ Revenues (x) 5.8 5.3 5.6 5.5 - 5.2 4.7 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 24.5 22.5 20.9 19.1 - 19.5 16.8 -
RoCE (%) 25.9 26.0 32.3 33.3 - 41.1 50.7 -
ROE (%) 17.2 19.4 24.5 25.9 - 31.2 38.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q2CY22 Results: Numbers impacted by divestments

  • Sanofi’s Q2CY22 revenues declined by 11% YoY, while EBITDA margins contracted 828 bps YoY to 23% due to lower gross margins (down 166 bps YoY) and higher other expenditures. Subsequently, EBITDA de-grew 35% YoY to | 161 crore. Profit for the quarter decreased 32% YoY to | 120 crore. The board of directors has declared one-time special interim dividend of | 193 per equity share for CY22. 
  • Sanofi India’s numbers appear optically weak due to sale of Nutraceutical business, sale of distribution business for Soframycin and Sofradex brands and Covid led higher sales in Q2CY21. Sanofi has strong anti-diabetic franchise ~30% of the turnover but lacking growth in both top 5 therapies and brands. However quarterly gyrations aside, Sanofi remains a compelling MNC play with focussed approach to 1) accelerate growth in diabetes segment, 2) selective growth in established brands and 3) building key brands in consumer health portfolio.
  Q2CY22 Q2CY21 YoY (%) Q1CY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 699.3 789.1 -11.4 707.0 -1.1   YoY degrowth due to sale of Nutraceutical business, sale of distribution business for Soframycin and Sofradex brands and Covid led higher sales in Q2CY21
Raw Material Expenses 319.5 341.9 -6.6 299.7 6.6    
Employee Expenses 104.1 112.0 -7.1 100.9 3.2    
Other Expenditure 114.6 88.1 30.1 111.9 2.4    
Total Operating Expenditure 538.2 542.0 -0.7 512.5 5.0    
EBITDA 161.1 247.1 -34.8 194.5 -17.2    
EBITDA (%) 23.0 31.3 -828 bps 27.5 -447 bps   YoY decline mainly due to higher other expenditure due to normal operations in Q2CY22 vis-à-vis Covid affected operations in Q2CY21
Interest  0.4 0.5 -20.0 0.4 0.0    
Depreciation 10.6 21.1 -49.8 10.9 -2.8    
Other income 15.7 17.1 -8.2 24.4 -35.7    
PBT before EO 165.8 242.6 -31.7 207.6 -20.1    
Less: Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 -118.1 0.0    
PBT 165.8 242.6 -31.7 325.7 -49.1    
Tax 45.4 64.3 -29.4 87.3 -48.0    
MI & Share of loss/ (gain) asso. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
Adj. Net Profit 120.4 178.3 -32.5 152.0 -20.8   Profitability largely in-line with operational parameters

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