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Sanofi India Ltd>
  • CMP : 8,277.5 Chg : 3.35 (0.04%)
  • Target : 7,740.0 (10.56%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

27 Apr 2022

Good quarter with decent margins…

About The Stock

Sanofi offers drugs in therapies like diabetes (insulins & orals), cardiology, pain, allergy and epilepsy.

  • Around 70% of sales stem from top seven brands. Lantus, Allegra & Combiflam are in Top 100 pharmaceutical brands in India
  • Sanofi enjoys strong brand recall in anti-diabetic therapy in India
Q1CY22

Sanofi India reported muted numbers this quarter amid divested business in base year.

  • Revenues were down 2.5% YoY to ₹ 707 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 194.5 crore, up 2.7% YoY with margins at 27.5%
  • Consequent adjusted PAT was at ₹ 152 crore (up 4.2% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Sanofi’s share price has grown by ~1.7x over the past five years (from ~₹ 4096 in April 2017 to ~₹ 7001 in April 2022).

  • Downgrade from BUY to HOLD as we wait for visible growth triggers and ramp up in ex-power brand portfolio. 
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 7740 i.e. 28x P/E on FY24E EPS on ₹ 276.4

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Focus on high margin portfolio through divesture of tail brands
  • Strong balance sheet, good dividend payout track record and comfort on corporate governance
  • Consistent performer in anti-diabetic and cardiac along with increasing contribution from respiratory, analgesics and gastro-intestinal therapies
  • Price led growth on back of 10.8% price hike in NLEM portfolio
  • Access to innovative molecules from parent like anti-diabetic drug Toujeo
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Sanofi, among MNC coverage we like Abbott.

  • Abbott India is one of the fastest growing listed MNC pharma companies in women’s health, GI, metabolic, pain, CNS among others. We continue to believe in Abbott’s strong growth track in power brands and capability in new launches on a fairly consistent basis.
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 19840

Key Financial Summary

Particulars CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 5 Year CAGR(CY16-CY21) CY22E CY23E 2 Year CAGR (CY21-FY23E)
Revenues 2,770.8 3,070.6 2,901.9 2,956.6 4.6 2,867.6 3,134.2 3.0
EBITDA 623.5 665.3 713.1 762.5 7.3 758.6 854.3 5.8
EBITDA margins (%) 22.5 21.7 24.6 25.8 - 26.5 27.3 -
Net Profit 380.6 414.2 477.6 944.4 25.4 658.0 636.7 -17.9
EPS (|) 165.3 205.6 225.5 250.6 - 248.2 276.4 -
PE (x) 42.4 38.9 33.8 17.1 - 24.5 25.3 -
M.Cap/ Revenues (x) 5.8 5.3 5.6 5.5 - 5.6 5.1 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 24.5 22.5 20.9 19.1 - 19.8 17.3 -
RoCE (%) 25.9 26.0 32.3 33.3 - 42.3 40.8 -
ROE (%) 17.2 19.4 24.5 25.9 - 32.6 31.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

  • Sanofi’s Q1CY22 revenues declined 2.5% YoY, whereas EBITDA margins improved 139 bps YoY to 27.5% due to lower raw material and employee expenditures. Subsequently, EBITDA grew 2.7% YoY to | 194.5 crore. Adjusted PAT increased 4.2% YoY to | 152 crore
  • Sanofi India completed the transfer of Soframycin and Sofradex brands this quarter and ex-divestment of nutraceutical business last year, revenues are indicative of steady single digit growth. According to IQVIA MAT Mar,22, Sanofi’s top five brands (Lantus, Allegra, Combiflam, Amaryl M and Clexane) has posted YoY growth of 11%
  • Sanofi has strong anti-diabetic franchise ~30% of turnover and remains a compelling MNC play with focused approach to 1) accelerate growth in diabetes segment, 2) selective growth in established brands and 3) building key brands in consumer health portfolio.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Siddhant Khandekar, Inter CA, Raunak Thakur, PGDM, Kush Mehta, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

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Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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