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Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd>
  • CMP : 759.9 Chg : -1.0 (-0.13%)
  • Target : 235.0 (27.03%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

05 May 2022

New order wins to ensure industry leading growth…

About The Stock

Ramkrishna Forgings (RKF) is a Kolkata based forging company, incorporated in 1981. It has six manufacturing plants in India concentrated around Jamshedpur and Kolkata with installed capacity of 1,87,100 tonnes as on date.

  • FY22 mix: Asia 56%, Europe 14%, North America 30%
  • FY22 segment mix: auto ~81%; non-auto ~19%
Q4FY22

RKF reported a healthy performance in Q4FY22.

  • Consolidated sales rose 19.5% QoQ to ₹ 718.7 crore, tonnage sold was at 32,038 tonnes up 9% QoQ.
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 147.6 crore with EBITDA/tonne at ₹ 46,070/tonne.
  • Consolidated PAT was up 85% QoQ to ₹ 84 crores (aided by reversal of DTL)
  • Management guided for strong sales growth momentum over FY22-24E
What should Investors do?

RKF has grown ~13.5% CAGR over the past five years from ₹98 levels in May 2017, vastly outperforming Nifty Auto Index.

  • We retain BUY rating amidst strong growth prospects & new order wins
Target Price Valuation

We value RKF at ₹235 i.e. 14x P/E on FY23E-24E average EPS of ₹16.8 (implied PE ratio of ~12x on FY24E numbers)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Largely EV immune product portfolio (engine components <1%) along with rising EV presence going forward, we build FY22-24E sales CAGR at 17.6%
  • With real-time pass-through of raw material costs in the domestic space & quarterly lag in case of exports, we see margins stabilising at ~22% mark
  • New order wins of ₹ 984 crore in FY22 with sales growth at 20-25% in FY23E
  • Focus on deleveraging b/s with 50-60% of cash profit going forward to be used towards repayment of debt.
  • Healthy double digit return-ratio profile amid stable 20%+ margin profile, increasing share of exports & greater machining in sales mix, going forward
New Stock Ideas

In our auto universe, we also like Mahindra & Mahindra.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,045

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 1,931.1 1,216.5 1,288.9 2,320.2 20.3 2,772.5 3,209.1 17.6
EBITDA 383.9 207.3 222.7 517.0 26.0 611.1 706.0 16.9
EBITDA Margins (%) 19.9 17.0 17.3 22.3 - 22.0 22.0 -
Net Profit 120.1 9.7 20.7 198.0 78.3 221.8 316.8 26.5
EPS (|) 7.4 0.6 1.3 12.4 - 13.9 19.8 -
P/E 25.1 309.7 143.0 14.9 - 13.3 9.3 -
RoNW (%) 13.8 1.1 2.3 18.4 - 17.2 19.9 -
RoCE (%) 14.1 4.5 4.8 12.4 - 14.9 17.5 -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - 100.0 - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q4FY22 Results:

  • Ramkrishna Forging reported a healthy performance in Q4FY22. On a consolidated basis, net sales for the quarter were at | ₹719 crore, up 20% QoQ. Total tonnage come in at 32,038 tons up 9% QoQ.
  • EBITDA for Q4FY22 was at | ₹147.6 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 20.3%, down 295bps QoQ primarily tracking higher RM costs (commodity led) as well as higher other expense. EBITDA/tonne however stood steady at ~₹ 46k/tonne in Q4FY22 vs. ~₹ 48k/tonne in Q3FY22
  • PAT for the quarter was ₹83.9 crores up 83% QoQ primarily supported by tax credits; reversal of deferred tax liabilities of ~₹25.3 crore.

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

  • During Q4FY22 company won 3 contracts worth ₹144 crores with total contracts for FY22 at 18 contracts with new order value of ₹984 crores. FY23 to remain strong amidst cyclical upswing & strong order book. Management project topline to grow by 20-25%.
  • Export remained strong with ~95% increase YoY in FY22 with strong demand from European region.
  • RKF focus to deleverage B/S through utilization of ~60% of cash profit generated also ~30% would be used towards capex and working capital requirement.
  • RKF targets to generate ~6% of top line through EV segment products particularly in 3W & PV space. Further content per vehicle has increased over years through making of front axle along with rear axle over the years.
  • Raw material prices come with a monthly/quarterly lag & is a complete pass through.
  • Going forward power & fuel prices are expected to decline amidst shift from gasoline to electric. Freight charges remained high in north American region where prices were at ~4-4.5x of normal prices. Management informed about ~₹60 crore recovery for freight cost
  • Management expects EBITDA margins to gradually rise in coming 6-8 quarters
  • There was no order cancellation in North American region due to extended shipping period and contracts with customer remained strong.
  • Inventory rise was largely on account of rise in shipping days from 45 days to 80-90 days to maintain JIT system with customers.
  • RKF remains unaffected amid geopolitical crisis as Russia was very small portion of top line & further company is witnessing strong demand from European region.
  • Contribution from Non-Auto space is expected to increase from current ~19% of sales levels to 25% of sales in next 3-4 years.
  • RKF is well positioned to reap benefits of CV industry growth with existing capacity. Current capacity utilization stands at ~77% for FY22 with total revenue potential out of current gross block pegged at ~₹ 3,600-4,000 crore

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I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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