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Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd>
  • CMP : 705.5 Chg : -16.90 (-2.34%)
  • Target : 335.0 (25.94%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

20 Feb 2023

Healthy growth prospects, inexpensive valuations…

About The Stock

Ramkrishna Forgings (RKF) is a Kolkata based forging company, incorporated in 1981. It has six manufacturing plants in India concentrated around Jamshedpur and Kolkata with installed capacity of 1,87,100 tonnes as on date.

  • FY22 mix: Asia 56%, Europe 14%, North America 30%
  • FY22 segment mix: auto ~81%; non-auto ~19%
Q3FY23

RKF reported a stable performance in Q3FY23.

  • Consolidated sales were down 6% QoQ to ₹ 778 crore, with EBITDA at ₹ 173 crore, flat QoQ. EBITDA margins in Q3FY23 stood at 22.3%, up 100 bps QoQ
  • Sales volume in Q3FY23 came in at 33,390 tonnes up 4% QoQ with corresponding EBITDA/tonne at ₹51,824/tonne.
  • Consolidated PAT in Q3FY23 was down 9% QoQ to ₹ 61 crores
What should Investors do?

RKF stock price has grown ~9% CAGR over the past five years from ₹170 levels in January 2018, vastly outperforming Nifty Auto Index.

  • We retain BUY rating amidst strong order book in export market, unchanged vision to grow sales at ~20% over next 3 years, sustainable margin profile of ~22% and RoCE accretive organic & inorganic expansion plans.
Target Price and Valuation

Introducing FY25E, we now value RKF at ₹ 335 i.e., 14x P/E on FY24E-25E average EPS of ₹ 23.8 amidst ~20% return ratios profile

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With brownfield expansion underway, inorganic acquisitions on anvil and strong demand across geographies, we build 23% sales CAGR for FY22-25E
  • With healthy exports order wins, value added products in focus and internal efficiencies at play we see margins stabilising at ~20-22% mark
  • Promoters infusing equity (via warrants) for growth capital in the recent past
  • Focus on deleveraging b/s with target of being near net debt free by FY25E.
  • Healthy double digit return-ratio profile amid stable 20%+ margin profile, increasing share of exports & greater machining in sales mix, going forward
Alternate Stock Ideas

In our auto universe, we also like Mahindra & Mahindra.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,590

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 1,216.5 1,288.9 2,320.2 20.3 3,085.7 3,619.2 4,294.3 22.8
EBITDA 207.3 222.7 517.0 26.0 672.7 790.8 901.8 20.4
EBITDA Margins (%) 17.0 17.3 22.3 - 21.8 21.9 21.0 -
Net Profit 9.7 20.7 198.0 78.3 245.7 347.4 437.0 30.2
EPS (|) 0.6 1.3 12.4 - 14.9 21.1 26.6 -
P/E 445.3 205.7 21.5 - 17.8 12.6 10.0 -
RoNW (%) 1.1 2.3 18.4 - 17.5 20.0 20.3 -
RoCE (%) 4.5 4.8 12.5 - 16.4 17.9 20.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q3FY23 Results:

 

  • Ramkrishna Forging reported a steady performance in Q3FY23. On a consolidated basis, net sales for the quarter were at ₹778 crores, down 6% QoQ. Total tonnage come in at 33,390 tons up 3.8% QoQ.
  • EBITDA for Q3FY23 was at ₹173 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 22.2%, up 100 bps QoQ primarily tracking gross margin expansion which was up 240 bps QoQ.
  • EBITDA/tonne for the quarter came in at ~₹ 51.8k/tonne in Q3FY23 vs. ~₹ 54.5k/tonne in Q2FY23.
  • PAT in Q3FY23 stood at ₹61 crores, down 9% QoQ (lower tax rate - Q2FY23)

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

  • Management informed about strong domestic demand & healthy traction from CV space and expects demand to remain healthy amidst increased economic activity & government spending on infrastructure.
  • During Q3FY23 the company won 3 contracts worth ₹366 crores from north America and European region in EV domain vs 5 contracts won in H1FY23 worth ₹408 crores. Management expects exports to grow by 15-20% YoY in CY23 amidst robust orderbook.
  • To strengthen & expand company’s position in EV space which presently forms 2% of overall topline, it has acquired 51% stake in TSUYO (start-up with product range which includes e-axles, differentials, motor shaft etc.). Company plans to invest ~|100 crores over 5 years in TSUYO.
  • RKF informed about undergoing brownfield expansion for adding 56,300 tons capacity with peak revenue potential now pegged at |5,000 crores.
  • Export remained strong on back of past order wins as well as new orders now converting to revenue. Management informed about orders from Europe remaining strong & increasing market share and new geographies to boost export growth.
  • Company remains confident about maintaining margin at ~22%.
  • Cost of acquisition for JMT Auto is               ~|125 crores of which ~|70 crores would be paid upfront and balance would be paid over next 4 years (equally) & company will further deploy additional |50 crores for capex & WC requirement. Company expects to achieve ~|450-500 crores of topline from this investment in second year of full operations.
  • Management guided about railways as a segment to grow sequentially & Q4FY23 performance to be better than Q3FY23.
  • Within geography, mix shift is witnessed from North America to Asia however in absolute terms North America remained steady.
  • Net working capital days remained broadly unchanged/lower marginally by 7-9 days. Net debt at company’s books stood at ~|1,287 crores as of December 2022 end with plans to further repay ~|50 crores by FY23 end.
  • Management informed about US Class 8 trucks demand remaining strong and sales to remain marginally higher than CY22.
  • Fall in ASP was largely due to fall in commodity prices which were reduced by ~|8-10/kg.
  • Managements expects effective tax rate to be ~22% + Surcharge starting FY24E vs ~35% in FY23.
  • On capex front company plans to spend ~|250 crores in FY23E & ~|150-200 crores in FY24E (excluding inorganic acquisitions).
  • FY25E Targets: Rev: ~|5,000 crores; Margins: ~22%; Net Debt free by FY25E.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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