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Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd>
  • CMP : 722.4 Chg : 20.65 (2.94%)
  • Target : 280.0 (24.44%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

02 Nov 2022

New capex on the anvil amidst strong demand scenario

About The Stock

Ramkrishna Forgings (RKF) is a Kolkata based forging company, incorporated in 1981. It has six manufacturing plants in India concentrated around Jamshedpur and Kolkata with installed capacity of 1,87,100 tonnes as on date.

  • FY22 mix: Asia 56%, Europe 14%, North America 30%
  • FY22 segment mix: auto ~81%; non-auto ~19%
Q2FY23

RKF reported a robust performance in Q2FY23.

  • Consolidated sales rose 18% QoQ to ₹ 824 crore, with EBITDA at ₹ 175 crore
  • Sales volume in Q2FY23 stood at 32,180 tonnes up 6% QoQ with corresponding EBITDA/tonne at ₹54,490/tonne (all-time high).
  • Consolidated PAT in Q2FY23 was up 31% QoQ to ₹ 67 crores
  • CFO generation remained strong in H1FY23 at ₹360 crore
What should Investors do?

RKF stock price has grown ~10% CAGR over the past five years from ₹141 levels in October 2017, vastly outperforming Nifty Auto Index.

  • We retain BUY rating amidst strong growth prospects & new order wins. RKF has announced further leg of growth capex with total potential turnover now pegged at ~₹5,000 crore with intent to be near net debt free by FY25E
Target Price and Valuation

Rolling over our valuations, we now value RKF at ₹ 280 i.e. 14x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 20 amidst 20%+ Sales/PAT CAGR over FY22-24E

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With new capacity addition under execution and strong demand across geographies, we build 23.5% sales CAGR for FY22-24E.
  • With stabilization of raw material costs, healthy exports order wins and internal efficiencies at bay we see margins stabilising at ~20-22% mark
  • Strong endeavour to grow revenues at 20% CAGR over FY22-25E
  • Focus on deleveraging b/s with target of being near net debt free by FY25E.
  • Healthy double digit return-ratio profile amid stable 20%+ margin profile, increasing share of exports & greater machining in sales mix, going forward
Alternate Stock Ideas

In our auto universe, we also like Mahindra & Mahindra.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,590

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 1,931.1 1,216.5 1,288.9 2,320.2 20.3 3,119.9 3,541.0 23.5
EBITDA 383.9 207.3 222.7 517.0 26.0 639.6 761.3 21.4
EBITDA Margins (%) 19.9 17.0 17.3 22.3 - 20.5 21.5 -
Net Profit 120.1 9.7 20.7 198.0 78.3 232.6 329.5 29.0
EPS (|) 7.4 0.6 1.3 12.4 - 14.1 20.0 -
P/E 30.6 376.7 174.0 18.2 - 15.9 11.2 -
RoNW (%) 13.8 1.1 2.3 18.4 - 16.7 19.3 -
RoCE (%) 14.1 4.5 4.8 12.5 - 14.7 17.3 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q2FY23 Results:

  • Ramkrishna Forging reported a healthy performance in Q2FY23. On a consolidated basis, net sales for the quarter were at ₹824 crores, up 18% QoQ. Total tonnage come in at 32,180 tons up 6% QoQ.
  • EBITDA for Q2FY23 was at | ₹175 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 21.3%, down 10 bps QoQ primarily tracking higher other expenses (ocean freight due to rise in exports). EBITDA/tonne came in all-time high at ~₹ 54.5k/tonne in Q2FY23 vs. ~₹ 49k/tonne in Q1FY23.
  • PAT for the quarter was ₹67 crores up         31% QoQ.
  • CFO generation remained strong in H1FY23 at ₹ 360 crore with utilisation of same towards capex (~₹ 150 crore) and gross debt reduction.

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

  • During H1FY23 company won 5 contracts worth ₹408 crores vs 18 contracts won in FY22 worth ₹984 crores. Management guided for strong H2FY22 amidst strong order wins across geographies.
  • Management guided about strong recovery in domestic as well as global OEM volumes post Covid-19 led disruptions, strong OEM production targets & China+1 strategy benefiting company.
  • Export remained strong on back of past order wins now converting to revenue & strong demand from North America. Management informed about orders from Europe remaining strong and have not witnessed any cancellation or deferments so far.
  • Management did not witnessed fall in commodity prices hence witnessed slight dip in gross margins. However, company remains confident about maintaining 22% margin mark & to steadily improve it to ~23-24%.
  • RKF remained focus to deleverage B/S and has reduced ~₹110 crores of net debt with further target of reducing by ₹100 crores net debt during H2FY23. Overcall company focuses to be near net debt free by FY25E.
  • Power & fuel expense was lower due to better utilization levels where as other expenses were high primarily tracking higher export tonnage growth.
  • Management expects to close ACIL acquisition this fiscal amounting to ~₹110 crores wherein ACIL has machining capacities in 2W & tractor component space and remains confident over new customer wins. Further, details with respect to revenue would be disclosed in due course of time.
  • Contribution from Non-Auto space is expected to increase from current ~19% of sales levels to 25% of sales in next 3-4 years. Further to diversify from M&HCV space RKF added North American Off Highway & Tractor OEMs as clients. Revenue from M&HCV (including Class 8 trucks) stood at 40% with balance 60% by <9 ton trucks (i.e. LCV, Class 5 trucks, etc.)
  • During FY23-24E company is planning to add ~56,000 ton cold & warm forging press line which is technologically advanced and different from its existing lines. Capex envisaged for this incremental capacity is pegged at ~₹ 300-320 crore, with company already incurring ~₹153 crores on this in H1FY23. Further ~50% of this capacity would be ready for use by March’23 & remaining by September’23.
  • Management informed about spike in energy cost in European region being beneficial for the company as some manufacturing could potentially shift from EU to Indian region.
  • Realization per ton was better due to higher share of exports and machining.
  • Order book from railways stood at ~₹100 crores and management plans to double it in FY24.

Disclaimer

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