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  • CMP : 855.0 Chg : -22.95 (-2.61%)
  • Target : 820.0 (19.71%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

19 Jan 2023

Execution to pick up sharply ahead!

About The Stock

Incorporated in 2008 by Prahladbhai Patel, PSP Projects (PSP) is one of the prominent contractors offering a diversified range of construction and allied services. Its focus remains on industrial, institutional, government, government residential and residential projects.

  • PSP reported 34.3%, 31.2%, 31.3% CAGR in topline, EBITDA, PAT CAGR, respectively, during FY17-22
  • Prudent management, net debt free, robust return ratios (RoCE: 25+%)
Q3FY23

PSP reported subdued number during Q3FY23.

  • Standalone revenue during Q3FY23 witnessed a muted growth of 2.4% YoY to ₹ 497.8 crore impacted by slowed down execution in certain projects in UP owing to delay in approvals.
  • EBITDA margin stood at 12.4% (down 290 bps YoY, as base quarter had some completion led benefits)
  • At PAT level, subdued operating performance coupled with higher interest cost translated into 24.8% YoY decline in PAT (to ₹ 35.3 crore)
What should Investors do?

PSP’s share price has grown at ~4% CAGR over the past five years

We maintain our BUY rating on the company given the strong revenue visibility and historical robust execution track record

Target Price and Valuation

We value PSP at ₹ 820/share (13x FY25 P/E).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • PSP’s pre-qualification for public projects has risen to ₹ 2,500+ crore with the completion of the Surat Diamond Bourse (SDB) project. Addition of big-ticket sized project is expected to boost its overall order book position
  • Expect revenue, earning CAGR of 17.4%, 11.6%, respectively, in FY23-24E, given the strong order book position
New Stock Ideas

Besides PSP, we like NCC Ltd in the EPC space.

  • Strong execution likely amid healthy order book 
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 120/share

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 1,499.3 1,240.9 1,748.8 34.3 2,010.4 2,413.5 2,830.2 17.4
EBITDA 191.0 134.8 256.5 31.2 248.5 303.0 353.3 11.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.7 10.9 14.7 - 12.4 12.6 12.5 -
Net Profit 129.3 80.8 162.4 31.3 151.0 189.1 226.0 11.6
EPS (|) 35.9 22.4 45.1 - 41.9 52.5 62.8 -
P/E (x) 19.1 30.5 15.2 - 16.3 13.0 10.9 -
Price / Book (x) 5.4 4.6 3.6 - 3.0 2.6 2.1 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.3 17.2 9.2 - 9.5 7.6 6.2 -
RoCE (%) 35.9 20.7 31.7 - 24.9 26.1 26.0 -
RoE (%) 28.3 15.5 23.7 - 18.7 19.7 19.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlight and outlook

Order book robust, execution to pick up considerably

As on December, 2022, PSP’s order book was healthy at | 5,075 crore (2.9x book to TTM revenues) aided by ~| 1,950 crore of order inflow secured during M9FY23. Most of its older projects are in the execution/ fully mobilized state (excluding two EWS Housing projects in Bhiwandi and Pandharpur worth ~| 700 crore). Additionally, it has secured orders a project by Surat Municipal Corporation worth ~| 1344 crore post Q3FY23 - strengthening its order book position even further to | 6418 crore. Furthermore, it also has a L1 project in Gujarat (~| 350 crore) is at approval stage which likely to be received very soon. Going forward, PSP has now raised its order inflow guidance to | 3800-4000 crore in FY23 vs. | 2500-3000 crore, guided earlier. On the execution front, the company has marginally trimmed their FY23 topline guidance to | 2,100 crore (~20% YoY growth) vs. | 2200 guided earlier. We have baked in ~15% revenues growth for FY23, conservatively. For FY24, the company expects to report 20-25% YoY growth given the strong revenue visibility at the current order book. We expect PSP to report revenue CAGR of 17.4% during FY22-25E with margin likely to hover at ~12.5%.

Lean balance sheet, working capital to normalise ahead …

PSP has a lean balance sheet structure backed by its asset light model (no investments in metro and roads projects) and has a net cash positive position. Working capital days at the end of Q3FY23 increased to 41 days (vs. 31 days at Q2FY23-end) mainly due to increase in Debtor days. With receipt of ~| 130 crore collection in January, it expects the working capital days to reduce going ahead. We expect working capital cycle to normalise to 30 days, going ahead.

Key conference call takeaways

  • Guidance: On the execution front, the company has marginally trimmed their FY23 topline guidance to | 2,100 crore (~20% YoY growth) vs. | 2200 guided, earlier. For FY24, the company expects to report 20-25% YoY growth given the strong revenue visibility at the current order book. We highlight that PSP has now raised its order inflow guidance to | 3800-4000 crore in FY23 (already received orders worth | 3284 crore till date). Conservatively, the company expects overall margins to hover in the range of 11-13% over the medium term depending on type, size and stage of projects.
  • Order inflow and pipeline: PSP has received ~| 1,950 crore of order inflow during M9FY23. Additionally, it has secured orders a project by Surat Municipal Corporation worth ~| 1344 crore post Q3FY23 - strengthening its order book position even further to | 6418 crore. The company also informed that the L1 project in Gujarat (~| 350 crore) is at approval stage which likely to be received very soon. Going forward, the company has indicated towards strong order pipeline of ~| 4500 crore (60% from Private clients; 30% from Gujarat state). With this, PSP has now raised its order inflow guidance to | 3800-4000 crore in FY23.
  • Update on Maharashtra projects: Outstanding order book for Bhiwandi/ Pandharpur project stands at | 601 crore/ | 127 crore. The company informed that for Bhiwandi project, post the hearing in Nov’22, the case has moved forward for arbitration and appointment of arbitrator is likely in near term.
  • Pre-cast facility: PSP has commissioned precast facility in Gujarat with the objective to provide sustainable building solutions and technological upgradation. First order for the same is for National High-Speed Project from L&T worth |195 crore during Q2FY23, while balance orders are from Residential and Industrial segments as part of its existing orders
  • Debt: Gross debt stood at | 191 crore in Q3 vs. | 157 crore in Q2. Long term borrowing has increased to | 50 crore at Q3FY23-end vs | 46 crore at Q2FY23-end. The working capital loan has increased from | 111 crore at Q2FY23-end to | 140 crore at Q2FY23-end mainly due to increase in requirement towards newer projects for mobilization purpose. The management expects working capital debt to normalize led by improved collection
  • Working capital days: Working capital days at the end of Q3FY23 increased to 41 days (vs. 31 days at Q2FY23-end) mainly due to increase in Debtor days. With receipt of ~| 130 crore collection in January, it expects the working capital days to reduce going ahead.
  • Capex: PSP incurred capex of | 29 crore during Q3FY23 (vs | 6 crore during Q2FY23) for additional mobilisation at new sites. Going forward, the company has guided for overall capex of | 50-60 crore (3-4% of sales) during FY23E.

 

Overall, PSP has reported subdued performance during Q3FY23. However, the company is well placed for healthy growth at decent margins to be driven by strong order book position, and expected sharp pick up in execution. Healthy order inflows secured at YTDFY23 level and robust bidding pipeline brightens company’s prospects. At CMP, the company is trading at a valuation of ~11x FY25E P/E.  We maintain BUY recommendation with a revised target price of | 820, as we roll forward our valuations to FY25 at 13x P/E vs. | 720 at 14x FY24E P/E earlier

Disclaimer

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