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  • CMP : 898.2 Chg : 11.60 (1.31%)
  • Target : 710.0 (18.73%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 Aug 2022

Mixed bag – weak execution but margin beat!

About The Stock

Incorporated in 2008 by Prahladbhai Patel, PSP Projects (PSP) is one of the prominent contractors offering a diversified range of construction and allied services. Its focus remains on industrial, institutional, government, government residential and residential projects.

  • PSP reported 34.3%, 31.2%, 31.3% CAGR in topline, EBITDA, PAT CAGR, respectively, during FY17-22
  • Prudent management, net debt free, robust return ratios (RoCE: 25+%)
Q1FY23 Results:

PSP reported a mixed operational performance during Q1 FY23

  • Revenue improved 8.8% YoY to ₹ 345.2 crore. The topline got impacted partly by slowed-down execution in UP-based projects due to labour issues.
  • PSP delivered elevated level of operating margin and stood at 13.6% during Q1 FY23 (up 123 bps YoY). Effectively, operating profit at ₹ 47.1 crore, was up 19.6% YoY.
  • PAT improved 13.6% YoY to ₹ 28.5 crore
What should Investors do?

PSP’s share price has grown at 14% CAGR over the past five years (from ₹ 308 in August 2017 to ₹ 598 levels in August 2022).

We maintain our BUY rating on the company

Target Price and Valuation

We value PSP at ₹ 710/share (14x FY24 P/E)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • PSP’s pre-qualification for public projects would rise to ₹ 2,000+ crore with the completion of the Surat Diamond Bourse (SDB) project. Addition of big ticket sized project is expected to boost its overall order book position
  • Diversification in select states offers a bigger opportunity pie
  • Significant traction and orders for pre-cast facility is likely to bring incremental benefits and associated revenue
  • We expect revenue, earning CAGR of 15.3%, 5.9% respectively in FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides PSP, we like PNC Infra in the EPC space.

  • Strong execution, lean balance sheet and healthy order book
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 350/share

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 1,044.0 1,499.3 1,240.9 1,748.8 34.3 2,035.7 2,325.2 15.3
EBITDA 148.9 191.0 134.8 256.5 31.2 254.0 298.8 7.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.3 12.7 10.9 14.7 - 12.5 12.8 -
Net Profit 90.2 129.3 80.8 162.4 31.3 153.0 182.1 5.9
EPS (|) 25.1 35.9 22.4 45.1 - 42.5 50.6 -
P/E (x) 23.9 16.7 26.6 13.3 - 14.1 11.8 -
Price / Book (x) 5.8 4.7 4.0 3.1 - 2.7 2.2 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.1 10.6 14.9 8.1 - 8.3 7.0 -
RoCE (%) 37.6 35.9 20.7 31.0 - 24.9 24.9 -
RoE (%) 24.3 28.3 15.5 23.7 - 18.9 19.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key business highlight and outlook

Order book healthy, execution to pick up considerably

As on June 30, 2022, PSP’s order book was healthy at | 4,613 crore (2.4x book to TTM revenues) aided by | 550 crore of order inflow secured during Q1FY23. Most of its older projects are in the execution/ mobilisation stage (excluding two EWS Housing projects in Bhiwandi and Pandharpur worth ~| 730 crore). Additionally, the company has secured orders worth ~| 450 crore post Q1 FY23 -  strengthening its order book position even further. Going forward, the company has guided for overall inflows worth | 2,200+ crore in FY23E (vs | 1,802 crore of projects secured in FY22) to be backed by better opportunities coming from both - government and private clients, its expansion into different states, and improved eligibility of higher-ticket size projects. On the execution front, the company has guided for 25% YoY topline growth (to | 2,200 crore) be driven by its comfortable order book position, and pick-up in execution. However, on conservative basis, we expect the company to report revenue CAGR of 15.3% during FY22-24E with margin likely to hover at 12.5%.

Lean balance sheet, prudent working capital management …

PSP has a lean balance sheet structure backed by its asset light model (no investments in metro and roads projects) and has a net cash positive position. While capex incurred towards pre-cast facility (| 109 crore) has increased the debt-level, to some extent, we do not expect a major swing in its net debt position further as incremental free cash flows would be sufficient for its working capital and capex requirement, going forward. Also, the company has exhibited prudent working cycle management which stood at 35 days at Q1 FY23-end. We expect working capital cycle to hover in the same range going ahead.

Key conference call takeaways

  • Order inflows and pipeline: PSP has secured projects worth ~| 1,000 crore at YTD FY23 level (~70% contributed by Institutional segment). Going forward, the company has indicated towards strong order pipeline of ~| 4,000 crore majorly spread across Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi. With these, the company is targeting orders worth | 1,200+ crore during rest period of FY23.
  • Update on major projects: Among major projects a) Surat Diamond Bourse project (valued at ~| 1,850 crore): completed and handed over to the clients, b) Medical college and Hospital project, Uttar Pradesh: faced severe labour problems as marriages season were at peak during April-May’22 (labours moved to their native places/or on leave to attend/perform wedding). Cumulative revenue generated from project stood at | 34 crore during Q1 FY23, c) Sports Complex, Gujarat: work on project commenced and execution undergoing efficiently and d) Residential project located at Bhiwandi and Pandarpur, Maharashtra: still slow moving with authority trying to revive projects
  • Opportunities from Central Vista Project: As per the management, the authority has tendered projects worth | 6,500 crore till now. So, significant opportunities (to the tune of | 12,000- 13,000 crore) is still pending and likely to come at bidding stage over next one year.
  • Pre-cast facility: PSP has commissioned Precast facility in Gujarat during December’22 with the objective to provide sustainable building solutions and technological upgradation. Order from precast facility at Q1 FY23-end stood at | 29.2 crore. Going forward, the management expects significant traction (| 200 crore worth of order from L&T at bidding pipeline)
  • Fixed price contracts: ~45% of overall order book (mostly government jobs located at Uttar Pradesh; excluding slow moving projects at Maharashtra) are fixed price contracts while rest of the projects have cost escalation clause. Softening of raw material prices to aid margin performance.
  • Margin: Conservatively, the company expects overall margin to hover in the range of 11-13% over medium term depending on type, size and stage of projects. Margin for pre-cast facility are expected to be in-line with EPC orders.
  • Competitive intensity: Competitive intensity in the projects valued at | 200-300 crore is comparatively less than the competition at jobs valued at | 500+ crore.
  • Debt: Long term borrowing has increased from | 34 crore at FY22-end to | 50 crore at Q1 FY23-end as company availed loan of | 20 crore from bank (at 7% interest rate) required for execution of Sports complex (Gujarat) rather than taking mobilization advance from client (at 10%). Working capital loan remained steady at ~| 67 crore on QoQ basis. The management expects working capital debt to hover in the range of | 60-75 crore going forward.
  • Working capital days: Working capital days at the end of Q1 FY23 increased to 35 days (vs 28 days at FY22-end) mainly due to increase in inventory (19 vs 17 days at FY22-end) and debtor days (70 vs 65 at FY22 end). Creditor days remained steady at 54 days.
  • Capex: PSP incurred negligible capex of | 3 crore during Q1 FY23 Going forward, the company has guided for overall capex of | 60-80 crore (3-4% of sales) during FY23E respectively.
 

PSP is set to enter the big league mainly backed by a) its rich construction experience, b) eligibility to bid for higher-ticket size project with improvement in pre- qualification criteria, and c) geographical diversification. Additionally, the company is placed for robust growth with healthy order book position, strong revenue visibility and decent margins. Healthy order inflows secured at YTDFY23 level and robust bidding pipeline brightens company’s prospects. At the CMP, the company is currently trading at a valuation of 11.8x FY24E P/E. We maintain BUY recommendation with a revised target price of | 710 (14x FY24E P/E) vs. | 630 at 12.5x FY23 P/E, earlier.

Disclaimer

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