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Polycab India Ltd>
  • CMP : 5,593.7 Chg : -39.45 (-0.70%)
  • Target : 3,380.0 (20.71%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

23 Jan 2023

An upbeat performance…

About The Stock

Polycab is the largest manufacturer of wire & cable in India. The company also entered the fast moving electrical goods (FMEG) space in 2014 and has recorded strong segment revenue CAGR of 32% in the last five years.

  • Polycab is the market leader in the wire & cable business with organised market share of 22-24%. In the FMEG segment, it is growing through new product launches and dealer addition across India. The company has ~4600 dealers, serving ~2 lakh retail outlets
  • Robust b/s with RoE, RoCE of 18%, 22%, respectively, (three-year average)
Q3FY23 Results

Cables & Wires segment drives Q3FY23 performance

  • Revenues were up ~10% YoY to ~₹ 3715 crore led by ~13% growth in the wires & cable segment. FMEG segment revenue remained flat on a YoY basis at ₹ 342 crore due to subdued demand conditions
  • Gross margin increased ~309 bps YoY supported by better product mix, judicial price revisions and lower RM costs. As a result, EBITDA margin increased by 284 bps YoY to 13.6%
  • PAT grew by ~14% YoY to ~₹ 361 crore YoY (up 33.4% QoQ) tracking strong topline growth and EBITDA margin expansion
What should Investors do?

Polycab’s share price has grown by ~2.9x over the past three years (from ~₹ 971 in January 2020 to ~₹ 2800 levels in January 2023).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We introduce our FY25E estimates. We roll over our valuation on FY25E and value Polycab at 32x P/E FY25E EPS and revise our target price to ₹ 3380

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Set a target to achieve ₹ 20,000 crore revenues by FY26 (13% CAGR)
  • Beneficiary of the government’s plans to invest ~ ₹ 111 lakh crore in FY20-25 under its National Infrastructure Pipeline
  • Total ~1.7 crore new houses under PMAY, urbanisation and rising aspiration level will give a significant boost to demand for home appliances
  • Model revenue, earnings CAGR of 14% & 19.3%, respectively, in FY22-25E 
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Havells in our coverage.

Havells has a strong presence in the organised product category across its segments ranging from cables, switchgears, ACs, etc. Its market share ranges between 6% & 20% across these segments.

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1420

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Yr CAGR (22-25E)
Net sales 8,830.0 8,792.2 12,203.8 0.2 14,253.4 16,032.4 18,179.8 0.1
EBITDA 1,135.0 1,111.1 1,265.2 0.2 1,833.0 2,020.1 2,336.1 0.2
EBITDA Margin(%) 12.9 12.6 10.4 - 12.9 12.6 12.9 -
Net Profit 765.6 885.9 917.3 0.3 1,206.6 1,346.0 1,559.0 0.2
EPS (|) 51.4 59.3 61.4 - 80.7 90.1 104.3 -
P/E(x) 54.4 47.2 45.6 - 34.7 31.1 26.8 -
RoE (%) 20.0 17.9 15.6 - 19.2 18.4 18.2 -
RoCE (%) 26.4 20.6 20.2 - 25.8 24.3 23.7 -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Results: Strong performance driven by core business, margins improve

  • Polycab reported revenue growth of ~10% YoY to | 3715 crore led by wires & cables segment, which grew 11.4% YoY to ~| 3342 crore. However, the FMEG segment performance remained tepid. The FMEG segment revenue remained flat on a YoY basis at | 342 crore. On a three year CAGR basis, the consolidated revenue increased by ~14% mainly driven by the wires & cables segment
  • Wire & cable revenues at ~| 3342 crore were up ~11.4% YoY reporting three year CAGR of ~15.5%. For Q3FY23, segment volume growth was ~18% YoY driven by both B2C and B2B segments. Revenue growth was also driven by boost in exports
  • The FMEG revenue (10% of overall revenue) was flat on a YoY basis at | 342 crore mainly due to subdued demand and realignment of distribution network. Transition to BEE norms impacted the take-off of fans in Q3FY23. However, it is expected to improve from Q4FY23. However, on a three year CAGR basis, revenues grew 16% supported by dealer additions and launch of new products
  • The EPC business (~3% of overall revenue) grew by ~27% YoY to ~| 126 crore led by pick up in infrastructure activities
  • EBITDA margin increased 284 bps YoY (73 bps QoQ) to 13.6% supported by higher gross margin (up 309 bps YoY). Segment wise EBIT margin of wire & cable came in at 13.8% in Q3 (up 210 bps YoY). FMEG segment reported an EBIT loss of ~| 2.5 crore vs. mainly due to inferior product mix and realignment in distribution strategy
  • PAT was up by ~14% YoY to ~| 361 crore, tracking higher sales growth and EBITDA margin expansion in Q3

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Demand Outlook 

  • Polycab is witnessing strong demand for cables and wires on both B2B and B2C fronts. The domestic volume growth of cables & wires was ~18% YoY 
  • Demand for wires has increased as a result of high demand from the real estate sector. Demand for cables is led by higher government capex 
  • Revenue contribution from cables and wires in past quarters was in the proportion of 70:30 which has now become 60:40 
  • The management expects revenue contribution from B2B and B2C to be in the proportion of 50:50 by FY26 
  • On the exports front, the company was undertaking project-based business and has gradually moved to distribution business. During 9MFY23, exports grew 32% YoY on the back of strong demand from sectors such as renewables, oil & gas and infrastructure.  
  • In Q3FY23, exports contributed ~6% to the overall revenue. The company has a strong order book for exports and the management expects exports to contribute ~8-10% to the overall revenue in FY23 
  • On the FMEG front, dealers have started stocking up fans as a result of transition to BEE norms from 1st January 2023 
  • The company’s facility in Roorkee for fans is fully utilized. The capacity of switchgears will be expanded by ~1.5x in FY24 

Margins 

  • The company has increased its advertising and promotion (A&P) expenses by 4x on a YoY basis due to increased TV advertisements 
  • Gross margin and EBITDA margin expansion in Q3FY23 was led by change in product mix and judicious price revisions 
  • According to the management, the sustainable EBITDA margin in the cables & wires segment will be in the range of 11-13% 
  • Polycab’s FMEG business’ profitability is under pressure due to higher A&P spends. The management expects recovery in FMEG business margins from FY24 onwards and aims to achieve 10% margin by FY26 
  • Polycab’s 2/3rd FMEG portfolio comprises of fans & lights and 1/3rd of the portfolio comprises of other products. The company intends to change this product mix and have higher proportion of switches and switchgear as it a more profitable business in the FMEG basket. For the improvement in product mix, the company has invested in facilities in Daman for switches and augmenting its facility in Nashik for switchgears 
  • The company will be taking price hikes in fans Q4FY23 as a result of transition to BEE norms 

Capex 

  • The company will be incurring a capex of ~700 crore in CY23 which will be funded through internal accruals. 3/4th of this amount will be spent towards wires and cables and 1/4th will be used for FMEG business 
  • Polycab will be entering the Extra High Voltage (EHV) cables space to cater to the growing demand for power across Tier 1 and 2 cities. The asset turnover of EHV is similar to the company’s current portfolio of cables & wires 
  • The company will be setting up a facility in Halol, Gujarat for the EHV cables and production at the facility is expected to begin from 2025.  
  • Polycab has tied up with a Switzerland based company, Brugg cables for technology procurement for the EHV cables 
  • As per the management, the EHV space has a revenue potential of ~| 4000-5000 crore by FY26

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal, MBA (Finance), Hitesh Taunk, MBA (Finance) and Ashwi Bhansali, MBA Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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