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  • CMP : 7,099.0 Chg : 19.50 (0.28%)
  • Target : 2,680.0 (21.87%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

20 Jul 2022

Strong performance on all fronts…

About The Stock

Polycab is the largest manufacturer of wire & cable in India. The company also entered the fast moving electrical goods (FMEG) space in 2014 and has recorded strong segment revenue CAGR of 32% in the last five years.

  • Polycab is the market leader in the wire & cable business with organised market share of 22%-24%. In the FMEG segment, it is growing through new product launches and dealer addition across India. The company has ~4600 dealers, serving ~2 lakh retail outlets
  • Robust b/s with RoE, RoCE of 18%, 22%, respectively, (three-year average)
Q1FY23 Results

Strong revenue growth; price hike drives gross margin

  • Strong revenue growth of ~48% YoY to ~₹ 2737 crore led by similar growth in the wire & cable segment. FMEG also grew strongly ~61% YoY
  • Gross margin increased by ~150 bps YoY supported by price hikes. The EBITDA margin increased by ~413 bps YoY to ~11% supported by improved gross margin and higher operating leverage.
  • PAT increased ~3x to ₹ 222 crore YoY; tracking strong topline growth and EBITDA margin expansion
What should Investors do?

Polycab’s share price has grown by ~2.6x over the past two years (from ~₹ 843 in July 2020 to ~₹ 2199 levels in July 2022).

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock

Target Price & Valuation

We revise our target price to ₹ 2680/share valuing the stock at 35x P/E on FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Set a target to achieve ₹ 20,000 crore revenues by FY26 (13% CAGR)
  • Beneficiary of government’s plans to invest ~ ₹ 111 lakh crore in FY20-25 under its National Infrastructure Pipeline
  • Total ~1.7 crore new houses under PMAY, urbanisation and rising aspiration level will give a significant boost to demand for home appliances
  • Model revenue, earnings CAGR of ~12% each respectively, in FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Asian Paints in our coverage

Asian Paints is a market leader in the decorative paint segment having ~2.3x more dealers (~70,000) than the No. 2 player. There are structural long term demand drivers of decorative paint such as reduced repainting cycle and ‘Housing for all, that makes it a long term growth story

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3265

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net sales 7,956.0 8,830.0 8,792.2 12,203.8 0.2 13,527.5 15,169.6 0.1
EBITDA 923.2 1,135.0 1,111.1 1,265.2 0.2 1,488.0 1,709.6 0.2
EBITDA Margin(%) 11.6 12.9 12.6 10.4 - 11.0 11.3 -
Net Profit 500.5 765.6 885.9 917.3 0.3 1,003.2 1,159.5 0.1
EPS (|) 35.4 51.4 59.3 61.4 - 67.1 77.6 -
P/E(x) 62.0 42.8 37.1 35.8 - 32.8 28.3 -
RoE (%) 17.6 20.0 17.9 15.6 - 16.5 16.7 -
RoCE (%) 28.3 26.4 20.6 20.2 - 21.8 22.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Demand Outlook:

  • In Q1FY23, Polycab saw a strong demand across B2B and B2C segments
  • Polycab derives ~87% of its revenues through dealer networks
  • The company revise its prices on a monthly basis
  • The month of June was impacted by significant softening of commodity prices such as copper. In such cases, the retailers and dealers optimize their inventory levels. However, the management expects the prices to be stabilized in near future and inventory buildup will again start from H2FY23 onwards
  • The company views India’s macro-economic environment to be positive and expects the second half of FY23 to be better than the first half of FY23. The management does not see any significant challenges affecting demand in a mid-long term 
  • Polycab has received repeat orders from large businesses globally 
  • The company is seeing a larger volume-based growth in the wires and cables segment. In Q1FY23, the wires and cables business saw a growth of 48%, out of which 2/3rd growth was due to higher volume growth. The remaining growth was value based led by calibrated passing on of price hikes. The management expects the industry to continue to move towards the organized segment and hence expects the same volume growth momentum to continue going forward 
  • On the FMEG front, switches saw a decline in revenue growth due to supply-led challenges. Polycab is currently dependent on a third-party supplier for switches. However, the company is starting its own facility for manufacturing switches by the end of FY23 and expects the revenue growth from switches to improve once the facility is functional 
  • There was a slight uptake in the demand from rural market, the management expects higher demand from the rural market led by a strong monsoon season 
  • Polycab’s sub-brand ‘Etira’ which was launched in Q4FY22 saw a 2x growth on sequential basis. ‘Etira’ caters to the economy segment and the company plans to penetrate the rural market with this brand  
  • The Company is working on four initiatives to drive FMEG segment revenue growth 1) aggressive market reach expansion, 2) building the right product portfolio across price spectrums, 3) improved brand architecture to drive premiumisation and 4) augmented influencer management program 

Margins: 

  • According to the management, profitability in Q1FY23 was supported by better operating leverage and calibrated price hikes
  • The management maintained its historical EBITDA margin guidance of 11-13% and expects improvement in contribution and EBITDA margin in case of further fall in copper prices
  • FMEG segment’s EBIT margin stood at 2% in Q1FY23, the management maintained its guidance of achieving 12% annualized EBITDA margin from this segment by FY26

Capex: 

  • For FY23, Polycab has planned a Capex of ~| 300-400 crore. Out of this, the company has incurred ~| 100 crores of Capex in Q1FY23 
  • Polycab is also exploring adjacent categories through either mergers and acquisitions or starting its own facilities. If the same happens, the amount of Capex to be incurred will be changed 

Other: 

  • In Q1FY23, the inventory level was higher due to anticipation of high demand in June, however, due to rise in prices of metal, retailers reduced their stock levels
  • According to the management, there was no inventory loss in Q1FY23
 
  Q1FY23 Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 2736.6 1855.2 47.5 3970.0 -31.1   Favourable base and price hikes helped drive revenue growth in Q1FY23 over Q1FY22
Other Income 44.3 24.0 85.0 16.8 164    
               
Raw Material Exp 2052.4 1419.6 44.6 3089.2 -33.6   Gross margin increased by 152 bps YoY (282 bps QoQ) supported by price hike
Employee cost 110.1 93.9 17.3 105.0 4.8    
Adevertisement Exp 19.5 7.8 148.5 16.6 17.0    
Freight and forwarding Exp 55.4 40.0 38.5 79.1 -29.9    
 Other Expenditure  188.1 159.7 17.8 203.7 -7.7    
Total Expenditure 2425.5 1721.0 40.9 3493.6 -30.6    
EBITDA 311.1 134.2 131.8 476.3 -34.7    
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.4 7.2 413 bps 12.0 -63 bps   Price hikes and higher operating leverage drives EBITDA margin up by 413 bps YoY
Depreciation 51.0 49.3 3.5 50.3 1.5    
Interest 8.4 9.8 -13.7 12.5 -32.6    
PBT 296.0 99.1 198.6 430.4 -31.2    
Total Tax 72.2 23.3 210.3 104.7 -31.0    
 (Profit)/loss from discon. Op             -                 -   NM              -   NM     
PAT 222.5 73.7 201.9 325.3 -31.6   PAT growth on a YoY basis came in on the back of strong topline growth and margin expansion
               
Key Metrics*              
Wires & Cables 2,405.7 1,626.9 47.9 3,540.0 -32.0   Revenue growth was supported by ~31% volume growth. Strong demand from both B2C and B2B segments drove the volume growth of wire & cable business. Export revenue also reported a healthy growth of 62% YoY
FMEG 308.2 191.9 60.6 379.2 -18.7   Favourable base and dealer expansion drives revenue growth of the segment.
Others 99.9 71.8 39.2 104.4 -4.4   Pick up in infra activities helped drive segment revenue
 *Including inter segment revenue               

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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