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  • CMP : 7,101.5 Chg : -260.0 (-3.53%)
  • Target : 3,300.0 (22.13%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

19 Oct 2022

Core segment drives performance…

About The Stock

Polycab is the largest manufacturer of wire & cable in India. The company also entered the fast moving electrical goods (FMEG) space in 2014 and has recorded strong segment revenue CAGR of 32% in the last five years.

  • Polycab is the market leader in the wire & cable business with organised market share of 22-24%. In the FMEG segment, it is growing through new product launches and dealer addition across India. The company has ~4600 dealers, serving ~2 lakh retail outlets
  • Robust b/s with RoE, RoCE of 18%, 22%, respectively, (three-year average
Q2FY23 Results

Strong performance led by the wire & cable business.

  • Revenues were up ~11% YoY to ~₹ 3332 crore led by ~12% growth in the wire & cable segment. FMEG segment revenue de-grew ~11% YoY on a higher base and subdued rural demand
  • Gross margin increased ~418 bps YoY supported by better product mix, judicial price revisions and lower RM costs. That helped drive EBITDA margin up by ~309 bps YoY to ~13%
  • PAT up ~35% to ₹ 271 crore YoY; tracking strong topline growth and EBITDA margin expansion
What should Investors do?

Polycab’s share price has grown by ~3.4x over the past two years (from ~₹ 804 in July 2020 to ~₹ 2740 levels in October 2022).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We revise our target price to ₹ 3300/share valuing the stock at 38x P/E on FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Set a target to achieve ₹ 20,000 crore revenues by FY26 (13% CAGR)
  • Beneficiary of the government’s plans to invest ~ ₹ 111 lakh crore in FY20-25 under its National Infrastructure Pipeline
  • Total ~1.7 crore new houses under PMAY, urbanisation and rising aspiration level will give a significant boost to demand for home appliances
  • Model revenue, earnings CAGR of ~12%, respectively, in FY22-24E  
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Havells in our coverage.

Havells has a strong presence in the organised product category across its segments ranging from cables, switchgears, ECD, ACs and lighting. Havells’ market share ranges between 6% and 20% across these segments. It has a robust balance sheet with five-year average RoE & RoCE of 19% & 24%, respectively

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1650

Key Financial Summary

| Crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net sales 7,956.0 8,830.0 8,792.2 12,203.8 17.0 14,054.4 15,758.8 13.6
EBITDA 923.2 1,135.0 1,111.1 1,265.2 21.0 1,742.7 1,952.5 24.2
EBITDA Margin(%) 11.6 12.9 12.6 10.4 - 12.4 12.4 -
Net Profit 500.5 765.6 885.9 917.3 30.0 1,141.0 1,297.8 18.9
EPS (|) 35.4 51.4 59.3 61.4 - 76.3 86.8 -
P/E(x) 76.2 52.5 45.6 44.0 - 35.4 31.1 -
RoE (%) 17.6 20.0 17.9 15.6 - 18.4 18.0 -
RoCE (%) 28.3 26.4 20.6 20.2 - 24.7 23.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q2FY23 Results: Strong performance led by core business

  • Polycab reported revenue growth of ~11% YoY to | 3332 crore led by wire & cable segment, which grew 12% YoY to | 2952 crore. However, the FMEG segment performance was hit by a high base and subdued rural demand. The FMEG segment declined 11% YoY to | 305 crore. On a three year CAGR basis, the consolidated revenue increased ~14% led by both wire & cable and FMEG segment
  • Wire & cable revenues at | 2952 crore were up ~12% YoY reporting three year CAGR of 15%. For Q2FY23, segment volume growth was ~18% YoY driven by both B2C and B2B segments. In addition to this, export revenues increased 75% YoY on higher demand from the US, Europe and Asia
  • The FMEG revenue (10% of overall revenue) declined ~11% YoY to ~| 305 crore mainly due to unfavourable base, subdued rural demand and realignment of distribution network. Fans business was affected on account of seasonality, inflationary environment and transition to the new BEE regulations. However, on a three year CAGR basis, revenues grew 16% supported by dealer additions and launch of new products
  • The EPC business (~3% of overall revenue) grew ~11% YoY to ~| 105 crore largely on a favourable base
  • EBITDA margin increased 309 bps YoY (147 bps QoQ) to ~12.8% supported by higher gross margin (up 418 bps YoY, 110 bps QoQ). Segment wise EBIT margin of wire & cable came in at 11.7% in Q2 (up 300 bps YoY). FMEG segment reported an EBIT loss of ~| 3 crore vs. EBIT of ~| 17 crore YoY mainly due to low operating leverage and poor sales mix
  • PAT was up ~35% to ~| 270 crore YoY, tracking higher sales growth and EBITDA margin expansion in Q2

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Demand Outlook:

  • On the cables & wires front, the company expects to see continued strong demand momentum especially from the domestic distribution business. The management expects demand from the urban side to grow further. Demand from the rural side was subdued in Q2FY23. However, it is expected to rise from Q3FY23E onwards
  • On the FMEG front, Polycab is realigning its distribution strategy, which led to de-growth in revenue and margins of the segment in Q2FY23. The impact of the same is expected to continue till March 2023. An uptick in the FMEG business is likely to be seen from FY24 onwards
  • Demand for fans was impacted by seasonality and implication of BEE norms in Q2FY23. This is expected to continue in the upcoming quarters of FY23E
  • Exports business grew 75% YoY in Q2FY23. The company has a stable order book for exports and is looking at a sustainable growth in this front. Polycab is also looking at entering into additional geographies
  • Polycab is seeing a fair traction in terms of private capex
  • H1 of the financial year contributes 45% to Polycab’s overall revenue. H2 is better for the industry in general and the company expects its growth trajectory to continue in the coming quarters of FY23E
  • The company has merged the fans vertical with lights & luminaries and retail wires vertical with switches & switchgears to create value through cross-selling opportunities and operational efficiencies
  • The management maintained its guidance of achieving | 20,000 crore revenue by FY26E

Margins:

  • According to the management, profitability in Q2FY23 was supported by better operating leverage and judicial price revisions
  • Polycab has not passed on the benefit of reduction in raw material prices completely leading to a 418 bps YoY increase in the gross margin to 26%
  • The EBITDA margin also improved 309 bps YoY to 12.8% led by higher topline growth
  • Both EBITDA and gross margins have reached its pre-Covid level
  • On the FMEG side, the EBIT margin was at -0.9% in Q2FY23. However, as per the management, the gross margin has remained flat QoQ for this segment
  •  The management maintained its guidance of achieving 10-12% annualised EBIT margin from the FMEG segment by FY26E

Capex:

  • For FY23, Polycab has planned a capex of ~| 400 crore
  • The company is also looking at inorganic opportunities for growth and may incur additional capex for the same

Disclaimer

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