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PNC Infratech Ltd>
  • CMP : 451.6 Chg : 2.95 (0.66%)
  • Target : 410.0 (23.87%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

16 Feb 2023

Asset monetisation – key catalyst in near term...

About The Stock

PNC Infratech has established itself as a strong executor in roads, water infra and airport runway segments. Additionally, superior execution capabilities via ownership of modern equipment and in-house teams enable PNC to deliver projects on-time. PNC has executed 70 major infrastructure projects till date.

  • Reported 30.3% revenue CAGR during FY17-22; operating margin was in the range of 13-15%
  • Proficient execution, robust return ratios (RoCE: ~20%)
Q3FY23

PNC reported muted execution during Q3FY23.

  • Standalone revenues witnessed modest growth of ~7% YoY to ₹ 1,627 crore, impacted by longer time taken for receipt of appointed date for its new HAM projects
  • EBITDA at ₹ 208 crore, was up 25.7% YoY. EBITDA margin was at 12.8% (up 191 bps YoY). Adjusted for ₹ 10 crore one off in employee costs, the margin was at 13.4% aided by some benefit arising from softening in commodity prices while the base quarter had some impairment
  • Like to like PAT was up ~21% YoY at ₹ 139.4 crore
What should Investors do?

PNC’s share price has grown at ~15% CAGR over the past five years (from ~₹ 168 in February 2018 to ₹ 331 currently).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the company
Target Price and Valuation

We value PNC at ₹ 410/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • PNC is likely to be one of the major beneficiaries of the thriving roads and water supply segment (Jal Jeevan Mission)
  • Strong order book position, receipt of appointed date in most of its projects, and execution pick-up to translate into 12.1% topline CAGR over FY22-25E and stable margins
  • Planned monetisation of HAM/annuity assets
New Stock Ideas

Besides PNC, we like HG Infra in the EPC space.

  • Strong execution, lean balance sheet and healthy order book
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 915/share

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY20 FY21 FY22 5 yr CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 yr CAGR (FY21-25E)
Net Sales 4,877.9 4,925.4 6,305.5 30.1 6,964.6 8,035.1 8,873.2 12.1
EBITDA 764.3 676.6 787.2 28.9 940.2 1,084.7 1,197.9 15.0
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.7 13.7 12.5 - 13.5 13.5 13.5 -
Adjusted PAT 315.2 361.9 447.8 24.1 596.4 675.1 748.7 18.7
EPS (|) 17.9 14.1 17.5 - 23.2 26.3 29.2 -
P/E (x) 18.5 23.5 19.0 - 14.2 12.6 11.3 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 11.9 10.4 - 8.9 7.8 6.9 -
RoNW (%) 12.4 12.4 13.4 - 15.2 14.7 14.1 -
RoCE (%) 25.3 19.2 20.0 - 20.8 20.5 19.7 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlight and outlook

Order book strong, provides healthy revenue visibility

PNC’s order book (OB) at the end of Q2FY23 was at | 17,842 crore, 2.6x book to TTM revenues. Roads contributed ~65% to the overall order book while balance ~35% is contributed by water and canal projects. Going forward, the company has guided for inflows worth ~| 8,000-10,000 crore during FY23E (vs. ~| 11,150 crore of projects secured in FY22). The key focus would be on roads projects while it awaits last phase ordering of Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) orders in Uttar Pradesh (| 10000 crore). Overall, the company has guided for ~10%, ~15% YoY revenue growth for FY23, FY24 respectively with operating margin at ~13.3-13.5%.

 

Well placed to fund HAM projects; asset monetisation on cards

PNC’s balance sheet remained lean backed by its prudent strategy to mainly focus on an asset light business model and efficiently manage working capital. At the end of Q3FY23, its gross debt, cash and cash equivalent at the standalone level was at
| 150 crore, | 365 crore, respectively. Going forward, it has total equity requirement of | 2,440 crore (| 1176 crore already infused) towards HAM projects. Balance | 1264 crore to be infused over the next two to three years. Despite these, we expect its debt to remain at comfortable levels with healthy operating cash flow generation arising from improved profitability and better cash flow management. Also, PNC is currently in discussions with seven potential investors to monetise its 11 HAM, one BOT-annuity and one BOT-toll projects (total equity infused: ~| 1550 crore). Out of the same, three HAM projects are in advanced stages and due diligence has been completed. PNC expects positive development on these fronts by FY23-end. The monetisation of HAM assets would increase its ability to bag newer projects.

 

Key conference call takeaways

  • Industry ordering/construction trend: MoRTH has constructed 5774 km of National Highway during 9MFY23 vs. target of 12000 km in FY23 mainly impacted by a prolonged monsoon period. Further, the award figure was at 7263 km. Overall, the authority is aiming to award ~12,000 km of road projects during FY23. The company informed that NHAI has lined up over 100 projects of | 1.1 lakh crore for ordering over the next couple of months
  • Inflows: Overall, the company is targeting order inflows of | 8,000-10,000 crore, ~| 10,000 crore during FY23, FY24, respectively. Roads project would be contributing majority to overall order inflow while the rest is targeted from the water supply division. The focus area for water supply projects would be Uttar Pradesh for the last phase of JJM project worth | 10,000 crore
  • Water segment: Water and canal projects order book value as on Q3 was at
    | 7,413 crore. Under JJM (balance order book value: ~| 6,420 crore), PNC has a current executable order book of | 2,700 crore. Out of these, the company booked revenue of | 615 crore till Q3FY23 (| 108 crore during Q4FY22; | 507 crore during 9MFY23). Overall, the management expects revenue of ~| 900 crore during FY23 from water supply project. Also, all the orders of | 7000 crore will reach execution by June, 2023 with approval of DPRs. It expects to complete 90% of the work by FY25
  • HAM projects portfolio: PNC has a portfolio of 18 HAM projects with an aggregate project cost of | 24,097 crore. Out of these, the company has achieved PCoD/CoD in five projects, 11 projects are under construction while awaiting appointed date in the balance two projects. Overall, the company has an overall equity requirement of | 2,440 crore. Out of these, PNC has infused | 1,175 crore equity in its HAM projects till Q3-end and has a balance equity requirement of | 1,264 crore over the next two to three years. Overall, the company expects to fund its remaining equity requirement with healthy internal cash flow generation
  • Bonus: The company is expecting early completion bonus from its two packages of Delhi Vadodara Expressway project, in case it completes them by April and May, respectively
  • Working Capital: Net working capital cycle at the end of Q3FY23 increased to 82 days (vs. 79 days at Q2FY23-end) with debtors at 67 days (at Q3FY23-end vs. 56 at Q2FY23-end). Going forward, the management expects the working capital cycle to remain in the range of 80-90 days
  • Debt: PNC’s standalone debt was at | 150 crore as of Q3FY23-end while cash and bank on PNC’s books was at | 365 crore, making it a net cash company.It expects gross debt of | 200 crore as of FY23 end
  • Capex: PNC has incurred capex of | 37 crore during 9MFY23. Overall, the company has guided for capex of | 100-120 crore during FY23E

 

PNC remains one of our preferred picks in the EPC space given its robust order book, healthy return ratios and lean balance sheet. With sufficient internal accruals from current order book, equity infusion for HAM is not expected to see any hiccups. Furthermore, with asset monetisation plan fructification (it is looking to monetise its BOT/HAM assets and expects some development by year end), the growth potential will increase. We maintain our BUY rating with an SoTP target price of | 410/share. We value its construction business at | 350/share (at 12x FY25 EPS).

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Bhupendra Tiwary, CFA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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