loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 249.1 Chg : -7.72 (-3.01%)
  • Target : 350.0 (34.10%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

16 Nov 2022

Muted performance impacted by slower execution…

About The Stock

PNC Infratech has established itself as a strong executor in roads, water infra, and airport runway segments. Additionally, superior execution capabilities via ownership of modern equipment and in-house teams enables PNC to deliver projects on-time. PNC has executed 70 major infrastructure projects till date.

  • Reported 30.3% revenue CAGR during FY17-22; operating margin stood in the range of 13-15%
  • Proficient execution, robust return ratios (RoCE: ~20%)
Q2FY23

PNC reported muted set of numbers during Q2FY23

  • Standalone revenue declined 3.3% YoY to ₹ 1,561.1 crore, albeit on the higher base, largely impacted by slowed execution pace owing to prolonged rains across majority of its project sites.
  • EBITDA margin stood at its normalized level of 13.3% (down 46 bps YoY) with benefit arising from softening in commodity prices and better project mix. Effectively, EBITDA at ₹ 207 crore, was down 6.6% YoY.
  • PAT was at ₹ 131.1 crore, down 3.2% YoY.
What should Investors do?

PNC’s share price has grown at ~7% CAGR over the past five years (from ~₹ 183 in November 2017 to ₹ 261 levels in November 2022).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the company.
Target Price and Valuation

We value PNC at ₹ 350/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • PNC is likely to be one of the major beneficiary of thriving roads and water supply segment (Jal Jeevan Mission)
  • Strong order book position, receipt of appointed date in most of its projects, and execution pick-up to translate into 11.7% topline CAGR over FY22-24E and stable margins
  • Planned monetisation of HAM/Annuity assets
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides PNC, we like HG Infra in the EPC space.

  • Strong execution, lean balance sheet and healthy order book
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 700/share

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 yr CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 yr CAGR (FY21-24E)
Net Sales 3,096.9 4,877.9 4,925.4 6,305.5 0.3 7,155.4 7,872.7 0.1
EBITDA 457.3 764.3 676.6 787.2 0.3 930.2 1,062.8 0.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.8 15.7 13.7 12.5 - 13.0 13.5 -
Adjusted PAT 324.9 315.2 361.9 447.8 0.2 543.4 632.4 0.2
EPS (|) 12.7 17.9 14.1 17.5 - 21.2 24.7 -
P/E (x) 20.6 14.5 18.5 15.0 - 12.3 10.6 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.8 8.1 9.2 8.1 - 7.2 6.3 -
RoNW (%) 15.4 12.4 12.4 13.4 - 14.0 14.1 -
RoCE (%) 16.4 25.3 19.2 20.0 - 20.3 20.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key business highlight and outlook

Order book strong, provides healthy revenue visibility

PNC’s order book (OB) at the end of Q2 FY23 stood at | 19,261 crore (including L1 in seven HAM projects having EPC value of | 7,439 crore). This translates into healthy 2.8x book to TTM revenues. Roads contributed ~65% to the overall order book while balance ~35% is contributed by Water and Canal projects. Going forward, the company has guided for inflows worth ~| 8,000-10,000 cror        e during FY23E (vs ~| 11,150 crore of projects secured in FY22). The key focus would be on roads and water supply projects. On the execution front, the company has reported 15.8% YoY revenue growth (to | 3,319.2 crore) during H1 FY23 backed by its strong order book position, pick-up in execution and receipt of appointed date in most of the projects. Overall, the company has guided for ~10-15%, ~10% YoY revenue growth for FY23, FY24 respectively with operating margin at ~13.5%.

 

Well-placed to fund HAM projects; asset monetization on cards

PNC’s balance sheet remained lean backed by its prudent strategy to mainly focus on an asset light business model and efficient manage working capital. At the end of Q2 FY23, its gross debt, cash and cash equivalent at the standalone level was at | 281 crore, | 523 crore, respectively. Going forward, it has total equity requirement of | 2,390 crore (| 1,109 crore already invested till Q1 FY23; | 1,281 crore to be spent over next 2-3 years) towards already secured HAM projects. Despite these, we expect its debt to remain at comfortable levels with healthy operating cash flow generation arising from improved profitability and, better cash flow management. Also, PNC is currently under advance stages of discussions with potential investor to monetize its 6 completed HAM, 1 BOT-Annuity and1 BOT-toll projects (total equity infusion: ~| 940 crore). The management expects positive development on these front by FY23-end. The monetisation of HAM assets would increase its ability to bag newer projects.

 

Key conference call takeaways

  • Industry Outlook: MoRTH has constructed 3,559 km of National Highway during H1 FY23 as compared to 3,824 km constructed during H1 FY22 mainly impacted by higher input cost and heavy and prolonged monsoon period. Further, the award figure stood at 4,092 km in H1 FY23 (vs 4,609 km during H1 FY22). Overall, the authority is targeting to award ~6,500 km of road projects during FY23.
  • Bid pipeline: At present, PNC has a targeted bid pipeline of | 50,000 crore from NHAI side while the company is contemplating to bid for some of the water supply projects (opportunity size: | 20,000-25,000 crore). Competitive intensity has already been reduced as compared to last year with gradual removal of relaxations provided under ‘AtmaNirbhar Bharat’ Scheme. Also, PNC is not facing major competition for Jal Jeevan mission (JJM) projects.
  • Inflows: PNC has tendered for | 11,000 crore worth of projects mainly in the roads segment and bids are likely to get opened by December’22. Overall, the company is targeting the order inflows of | 8,000-10,000 crore, ~10,000 crore during FY23, FY24 respectively. Roads project would be contributing ~70% to overall order inflow while rest is targeted from Water supply division. The focus area for water supply projects would be Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.
  • Water Segment: Water and Canal projects order book value as on 30th September 2022 stands at | 7,583 crore. Under JJM (order book value: ~| 7,000 crore), PNC has a current executable order book of | 2,260 crore. Out of these, the company booked revenue of | 348 crore till September 2022 (| 108 crore during Q4 FY22; | 240 crore during H1 FY23). Overall, the management expects revenue of ~| 760 crore during H2 FY23 from water supply project. Also, net executable order book is likely to reach | 3,000+ crore by FY23-end with approval of DPRs.
  • HAM Projects portfolio: PNC has a portfolio of 18 HAM projects with an aggregate bid project cost of | 24,590 crore. Out of these, the company has achieved PCoD/CoD in 5 projects, 6 projects are under construction while awaiting Appointed Date in balance 7 projects. Overall, the company has an overall equity requirement of | 2,390 crore. Out of these, PNC has infused | 1,109 crore equity in its HAM projects till September’22-end and has a balance equity requirement of | 1,281 crore (| 250 crore during rest-FY23E, | 450 crore in FY24E and balance in FY25E). Overall, the company expects to fund its remaining equity requirement with healthy internal cash flow generation.
  • Financial Closure: PNC has achieved Financial Closure for 3 HAM projects namely Kanpur-Lucknow Expressway Pkg- 1 and 2, and Akkalkot Badadal-Maradgi project having an aggregate bid project cost of | 4,501 crore within stipulated time period.
  • Margin: Operating margin during H1 FY23 stood at 14%. With softening in commodity prices such as steel, the management expects margin to remain at its normalized level of ~13.5% going forward.
  • Bonus: The company is expecting early completion bonus from its two packages of Delhi Vadodara Expressway project as jobs are completed ~60-70 days earlier than revised completion date.
  • Working Capital: Net working capital cycle at the end of Q2 FY23 increased to 79 days (vs 68 days at Q1 FY23-end) with debtors staying at 54 days (at Q2 FY23-end vs 60 at Q1 FY23-end). Going forward, the management expects working capital cycle to remain in the range of 80-90 days.
  • Debt: PNC’s standalone debt was at | 281 crore as of Q2 FY23-end, while Cash and bank on PNC’s books was at | 523 crore. Going forward, the management expects standalone gross debt to hover at ~| 250 crore (by FY23-end) to be backed by generation of higher operating cash flows.
  • Assets Monetisation Plan: PNC is currently under various stages of discussions with potential investors to monetize its 6 completed HAM, 1 – BOT toll and 1 BOT-Annuity projects (total equity infusion: ~| 940 crore). One of the investors has already commenced due-diligence for 3 HAM projects. The management expects positive development on these front by FY23-end.
  • Capex: PNC has incurred capex of | 22 crore during H1 FY23. Overall, the company has guided for capex of | 100-120 crore during FY23E.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Bhupendra Tiwary, CFA, MBA, Lokesh Kashikar, MMS, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                       

 

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports. 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research. 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More