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  • CMP : 251.1 Chg : -5.79 (-2.25%)
  • Target : 350.0 (35.14%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

10 Aug 2022

Healthy performance; outlook bright

About The Stock

PNC Infratech has established itself as a strong executor in roads, water infra, and airport runway segments. Additionally, superior execution capabilities via ownership of modern equipment and in-house teams enables PNC to deliver projects on-time. PNC has executed 70 major infrastructure projects till date.

  • Reported 30.3% revenue CAGR during FY17-22; operating margin stood in the range of 13-15%
  • Proficient execution, robust return ratios (RoCE: ~20%)
Q1FY23 Results:

PNC reported robust set of numbers during Q1 FY23

  • Standalone revenue was up 40.5% YoY to ₹ 1,758.1 crore. Its revenue included ₹ 37 crore bonus received for early completion of the project
  • EBITDA came in at ₹ 257.8 crore, up 46.9% with better project mix and receipt of early completion bonus (₹ 37 crore for early completion of a project). The consequent margin, stood at 14.7% (up 64 bps YoY). Core margin (adjusted to bonus) stood at 12.8%.
  • PAT was at ₹ 166.5 crore, up 78.5% YoY.
What should Investors do?

PNC’s share price has grown at 13% CAGR over the past five years (from ~₹ 139 in August 2017 to ₹ 259 levels in August 2022).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the company
Target Price and Valuation

We value PNC at ₹ 350/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • PNC is likely to be one of the major beneficiary of thriving roads and water supply segment (Jal Jeevan Mission)
  • Strong order book position, receipt of appointed date in most of its projects, and execution pick-up to translate into 13.4% topline CAGR over FY22-24E and stable margins
  • Planned monetisation of HAM/Annuity assets
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides PNC, we like HG Infra in the EPC space.

  • Strong execution, lean balance sheet and healthy order book
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 765/share

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 3,096.9 4,877.9 4,925.4 6,305.5 30.1 7,309.9 8,108.9 13.4
EBITDA 457.3 764.3 676.6 787.2 28.9 946.6 1,094.7 17.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.8 15.7 13.7 12.5 - 13.0 13.5 -
Adjusted PAT 324.9 315.2 361.9 447.8 24.1 537.2 632.0 18.8
EPS (|) 12.7 17.9 14.1 17.5 - 20.9 24.6 -
P/E (x) 20.4 14.4 18.4 14.8 - 12.4 10.5 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.7 8.1 9.1 8.0 - 7.0 6.1 -
RoNW (%) 15.4 12.4 12.4 13.4 - 13.9 14.1 -
RoCE (%) 16.4 25.3 19.2 20.0 - 21.2 21.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key business highlight and outlook

Order book strong, provides healthy revenue visibility

PNC’s order book (OB) at the end of Q1 FY23 stood at | 20,446 crore (including L1 in seven HAM projects having EPC value of | 7,439 crore). This translates into healthy 3x book to TTM revenues. Roads contribute 60.7% to the overall order book while balance 39.3% is contributed by Water and Canal projects. Going forward, the company has guided for inflows worth ~| 8,000-10,000 cror      e during FY23E (vs ~| 11,150 crore of projects secured in FY22). The key focus would be on roads and water supply projects. On the execution front, the company has reported 40.5% YoY revenue growth (to | 1,758.1 crore) during Q1 FY23 backed by its strong order book position, pick-up in execution and receipt of appointed date in most of the projects. Going forward, the company has guided for ~15% YoY revenue growth for FY23 with operating margin at ~13.5%.

Well-placed to fund HAM projects; asset monetization on cards

PNC’s balance sheet remained lean backed by its prudent strategy to mainly focus on an asset light business model and efficient manage working capital. At the end of Q1 FY23, its gross debt, cash and cash equivalent at the standalone level was at | 300 crore, | 463 crore, respectively. Going forward, it has total equity requirement of | 2,390 crore (| 1,029 crore already invested till Q1 FY23; | 1,361 crore to be spent over next 2-3 years) towards already secured HAM projects. Despite these, we expect its debt to remain at comfortable levels with healthy operating cash flow generation arising from improved profitability and, better cash flow management. Also, PNC is currently under advance stages of discussions with potential investor to monetize its 6 completed HAM and 1 BOT-Annuity projects (total equity infusion: ~| 940 crore). The management expects positive development on these front by FY23-end. The monetisation of HAM assets would increase its ability to bag newer projects.

 

Key conference call takeaways

  • Industry Outlook: The pace of highway construction during Q1 FY23 slowed down to 22km /day (vs 25km/day in Q1 FY22) mainly impacted by higher input cost and early onset of monsoon. Further, ongoing heavy monsoon period and flood like situations in some places would continue to have influence on the overall construction activities during Q2 FY23. In terms of awarding, MoRTH has tendered 969 km during Q1 FY23 (vs 1,681 km in Q1 FY22). Overall, the authority is targeting to award 6,500 km of road projects during FY23 (including ~10% of total tendering via BOT). Also, MoRTH/NHAI are contemplating to grant ~20% of the bid project cost during the construction period of HAM projects (against current norm of 40%). While this would require additional investments by private developers, the authority would be able bid out more projects with same capital.
  • Bid pipeline: At present, PNC has a bid pipeline of | 50,000 crore mainly from NHAI side. EPC projects are contributing 60% to the overall tenders while rest 40% are contributed by HAM projects.
  • Water Segment: Water and Canal projects order book value as on 30th June 2022 stands at | 8,036 crore. Under Jal Jeevan mission (order book value: ~| 6,000 crore), PNC currently has an executable order book of | 1,800 crore. Out of these, the company has executed work worth ~| 400 crore till now (| 108 crore during Q4 FY22; | 142 crore during Q1 FY23 and | 150 crore in August’22 period). Overall, the management expects revenue booking of ~| 1,200-1,500 crore from the Jal Jeevan mission projects during FY23.
  • HAM Projects portfolio: PNC has a portfolio of 18 HAM projects with an aggregate bid project cost of | 24,590 crore. Out of these, the company has achieved PCoD/CoD in 5 projects, 6 projects are under construction and balance 7 projects are recently awarded. Overall, the company has an overall equity requirement of | 2,390 crore. Out of these, PNC has infused | 1,029 crore equity in its HAM projects till June’22-end (| 114 crore infused in Q1 FY23) and has a balance equity requirement of | 1,361 crore (| 330 crore during rest-FY23E, | 480 crore in FY24E and balance in FY25E). Overall, the company expects to fund its remaining equity requirement with healthy internal cash flow generation.
  • Land availability at newer HAM projects: In its newly won 7 HAM projects, 80% land is available at 5 projects while 60% land is accessible for remaining 2 jobs. The management expects significant portion of land would be available over next five months. Appointed date is expected in most of the projects during Q4 FY23.
  • Bonus: PNC has received | 37 crore towards bonus for early completion of Purvanchal Expressway (Package VI) project during Q1 FY23 (completed 97 days ahead of schedule).
  • Margin: Operating margin during Q1 FY23 stood at 14.7%. However, excluding receipt of early completion bonus, operating margin stood at 12.8%. With softening in steel prices, the management expects margin to remain at its normalized level of ~13.5% going forward.
  • Aligarh Expressway divestment: PNC has completed the divestment of its entire stake of 35% (which includes 19.88% stake held by PNC Infra Holdings, wholly owned subsidiary of the company) in the Ghaziabad Aligarh Expressway project to Cube Highways and Infrastructure. In the project, the company had the investment of | 442.2 crore (in form of equity share capital, subordinate loans and EPC outstanding) against which it has received | 214.9 crore from the acquirer. The total transaction has been done at an enterprise value of | 1,370 crore. With the completion of deal, the company has recognized | 39 crore, | 90.3 crore of impairment during Q3 FY22, Q4 FY22 respectively.
  • Other Assets Monetisation Plan: PNC is currently under advance stages of discussions with potential investor to monetize its 6 completed HAM and 1 BOT-Annuity projects (total equity infusion: ~| 940 crore). The management expects positive development on these front by FY23-end.
  • Working Capital: Net working capital cycle improved to 68 days (at Q1 FY23-end; vs 77 days at FY22-end) backed by the significant improvement in the debtor days (stood at 60 at Q1 FY23-end vs 74 days at FY22-end). Going forward, the management expects working capital cycle to normalize to 80-90 days.
  • Debt: PNC’s standalone debt was at | 300 crore as of Q1 FY23-end, largely for equipment financing with no working capital debt. Cash and bank on PNC’s books was at | 463 crore. Going forward, the management expects standalone gross debt to hover at ~| 200-250 crore (by FY23-end) to be backed by generation of higher operating cash flows.
  • Toll collection numbers: MP highways | 13.9 crore, Kanpur Ayodhya | 125.3 crore, Kanpur highway | 23.3 crore, Narela | 11.9 crore, Bareilly Almora | 15.3 crore, and Ghaziabad Aligarh | 32.2 crore
  • Capex: PNC has incurred negligible capex during Q1 FY23. However, the company has guided for overall capex of | 100-120 crore during FY23E.

PNC remains one of our preferred pick in the EPC space given its robust order book, healthy return ratios and lean balance sheet. With sufficient internal accruals from current order book, equity infusion for HAM will have no hiccups. Furthermore, with asset monetisation plan fructification (it is looking to monetise its BOT/HAM assets and expects some development by year end), the growth potential will increase. We maintain our BUY rating with SoTP target price of | 350/share. We value its construction business at | 296/share (at 12x FY24 EPS).

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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