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Persistent Systems Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,361.9 Chg : -33.80 (-1.0%)
  • Target : 4,370.0 (17.89%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

21 Oct 2022

Consistent margin improvement…

About The Stock

Persistent System (Persistent) offers cloud, data, product & design led services to BFSI, Healthcare & Hi Tech verticals.

  • Persistent had a strong year (FY22) with revenue growth of 35.2% in dollar terms, out of which organic growth was 32.8%
  • Net debt free and healthy double digit return ratio (with RoCE of 20%)
Q2FY23 Results:

Persistent reported strong numbers in Q2FY23.

  • Revenue grew 6.6% QoQ in CC terms and 5.8% in dollar terms
  • EBIT margins improved ~30 bps QoQ to 14.6%
  • Deal TCV was at US$367.8 mn, down 6.6% QoQ, up 30.2% YoY
What should Investors do?

Persistent’s share price has grown by ~5.5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 667 in October 2017 to ~₹ 3,707 levels in October 2022).

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Persistent at ₹ 4,370 i.e. 26x P/E on FY25E.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The company has achieved US$1 bn revenue on a quarterly annualised basis and is now aiming at US$2 bn annual revenue in the medium term
  • It has acquired five companies in FY22 building capabilities in payments, cloud, etc. Persistent is not shying away from acquisitions in coming years as well
  • Strong deal win momentum will help improve its revenue growth. We expect dollar revenue to grow at 23.7% CAGR in FY22-25E along with EBIT margin expansion of ~70 bps to 14.6% over FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Persistent, in our IT coverage we also like LTI.

  • Industry leading growth and healthy margins prompt us to be positive on the stock
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 5,525

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 3,565.8 4,187.9 5,710.7 14.7 8,187.7 9,704.8 10,807.5 23.7
EBITDA 493.0 683.0 958.2 16.1 1,443.7 1,740.3 1,970.4 27.2
EBITDA Margins (%) 13.8 16.3 16.8 - 17.6 17.9 18.2 -
Net Profit 340.3 450.7 690.4 18.0 953.8 1,146.7 1,287.7 23.1
EPS (|) 44.4 59.0 90.3 - 124.8 150.0 168.5 -
P/E (x) 83.5 62.9 41.0 - 29.7 24.7 22.0 -
RoCE (%) 18.5 21.6 23.1 - 28.2 29.4 28.9 -
RoE (%) 14.3 16.1 20.5 - 24.3 24.9 24.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported revenue growth of 5.8% to US$255.6 million (mn). In CC terms, growth was 6.6% QoQ. Persistent indicated that the organic contribution was 4.7% in dollar terms and 5.5% in CC terms. In rupee terms, the company reported a revenue of | 2,048.6 crore, up 9.1% QoQ
  • Geography wise, North America (78.6% of the mix) grew 6.1% while Europe & India and RoW reported growth of 3.3% & 7.7% QoQ, respectively. In terms of verticals, hitech reported growth of 8.3% QoQ while BFSI reported moderate growth of 3% QoQ
  • EBIT margin of the company improved 30 bps QoQ to 14.6%. The company indicated the following tailwinds for margin improvement: a) increase in IP revenues +80 bps, b) currency benefit +90 bps and c) lower travel & sub-contractor costs + 120 bps mitigated by the following headwinds: a) wage hike -230 bps, b) provision for doubtful debts -20 bps and c) CSR spend -10 bps
  • On demand environment, the company indicated that the global economy is experiencing headwinds like inflation as well as geopolitical risk, which is unfolding as we speak. Persistent and its clients are watching these events closely. There is a constant discussion on cost optimisation programs that its clients are looking for. It also indicated that it is staying closer to the clients and working on every possible solution required by its clients to remain competitive in such a challenging environment. The company witnessed slower decision making on the client side but outright order cancellation is not yet visible. The company expects normal furlough in Q3
  • As far as top customer (which is a global major tech company) is concerned, revenue mix for the same is coming down as a result of continued revenue decline. Persistent mentioned that quarterly variations are a reflection of certain decision making at its end pertaining to prioritisation of certain tech spends. The company further said it is working with this client for the last 18 years and is also a part of their certain future programs. There is no risk to this revenue mix. Persistent also reiterated that there were certain contract changes (for five-year deal) that it did with this client, a few quarters back, wherein time and material contract has been converted into fixed price contract to scale up margins. It may reflect in future company margins. Persistent expects around US$2 mn impact of these developments on its revenue
  • As far as weak BFSI revenues for the quarter are concerned, the company mentioned that quarterly variations are possible in this vertical. It also mentioned that banks and insurance businesses are prioritising their tech spends. Hence, some moderation is possible but long term growth is intact. Persistent also said that its BFSI is largely in the US, India geography while it has minimal exposure to mortgage business clients in BFSI segment. Hence, it is not expecting any impact of weak macros on its banking business
  • On M&A aspiration, the company said that all its historical acquisitions are largely integrated as integration of recently acquired data glove and media agility is in final stages. Persistent indicated that it is now actively looking for acquisitions, especially in the Europe regions where significant valuation correction is visible and will not shy away from the deal if it is a strategic fit for them
  • The company added 838 employees during the quarter where the mix is skewed towards freshers. It also mentioned that it has honoured all offers to freshers and there is no cancellation from its side. It added 3000 freshers in the last two quarters. Persistent’s fresher target is complete for FY23
  • The company’s LTM attrition declined 110 bps QoQ to 23.7%. This the third consecutive quarter wherein the attrition has declined. Persistent further indicated that it expects attrition to moderate further in H2FY23
  • The company signed large deals of TCV US$70 mn in Q1 and US$80 mn in Q2. Onshore revenues were up 4.7% due to 4.8% increase in pricing while volumes were up 2.5%. In case of onsite, revenues were up 0.9% in which volumes were up 2.5% while pricing was down 1.5%. The management indicated offshore price is a function of its ability to manage fixed price projects and pricing power in terms of contracted price increase
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY22   YoY (%)  Q1FY23  QoQ (%)  Comments
 Revenue (USD mn)       255.6      182.3 40.2       241.5 5.8 Revenue grew at 6.6% QoQ in CC terms with organic contribution of 5.5%
Revenue 2,048.6 1,351.2 51.6 1,878.1 9.1  
Employee expenses 1,349.5 895.5 50.7 1,223.9 10.3  
             
Gross Margin 699.1 455.7 53.4 654.2 6.9  
Gross margin (%) 34.1 33.7 40 bps 34.8 -71 bps  
Other expenses 331.2 231.3 43.2 320.9 3.2  
             
EBITDA 368.0 224.4 64.0 333.3 10.4  
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.0 16.6 135 bps 17.7 22 bps  
Depreciation & amortisation 69.3 37.1 86.9 64.5 7.4  
EBIT 298.7 187.3 59.4 268.8 11.1  
EBIT Margin (%) 14.6 13.9 72 bps 14.3 27 bps Margin grew despite headwinds of -260 bps including wage hike (-230 bps) while tailwinds were increase in IP revenues (+80 bps), currency benefits (+90 bps) and lower travel & sub-contractor expenses (+120 bps)
Other income -3.1 30.3 -110.1 13.1 -123.3  
PBT 295.6 217.6 35.8 281.9 4.9  
Tax paid 75.6 55.9 35.3 70.3 7.6  
PAT 220.0 161.8 36.0 211.6 4.0  

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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