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  • CMP : 6,336.5 Chg : 132.50 (2.14%)
  • Target : 4,200.0 (15.61%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

25 Jul 2022

Highest ever TCV booking

About The Stock

Persistent System (Persistent) offers cloud, data, product & design led services to BFSI, Healthcare & Hi Tech verticals

  • Persistent had a strong year FY22 with revenue growth of 35.2% in dollar terms, out of which organic growth was 32.8%
  • Net debt free and healthy double digit return ratio (with RoCE of 20%)
Q1FY23 Results

Persistent reported robust Q1FY23 results.

  • Dollar revenues increased 11.1% QoQ, organic growth was 5.6% QoQ
  • EBIT margins improved ~30 bps QoQ to 14.3%
  • Deal TCV was at US$394 mn, up 9% QoQ
What should Investors do?

Persistent’s share price has grown by ~5.5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 663 in July 2017 to ~₹ 3,633 levels in July 2022).

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Persistent at ₹ 4,200 i.e. 30x P/E on FY24E

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The company has reached US$966mn LTM revenues and approaching its targeted US$1bn revenue, now it is aiming at US$2bn revenues in the medium term
  • It has acquired five companies in FY22 building capabilities in payments, cloud, etc. The company is not shying away from acquisitions in coming years as well
  • Strong deal win momentum will help improve its revenue growth. We expect dollar revenue to grow at 23.5% CAGR in FY22-24E along with EBIT margin expansion of ~80 bps to 14.7% over FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Persistent, in our IT coverage we also like LTI.

  • Industry leading growth and healthy margins prompt us to be positive on the stock
  • HOLD with target price of ₹ 4,480

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 3,365.9 3,565.8 4,187.9 5,710.7 14.7 7,291.8 8,750.1 23.8
EBITDA 580.5 493.0 683.0 958.2 16.1 1,285.7 1,569.1 28.0
EBITDA Margins (%) 17.2 13.8 16.3 16.8 - 17.6 17.9 -
Net Profit 351.7 340.3 450.7 690.4 18.0 882.3 1,071.4 24.6
EPS (|) 44.0 44.4 59.0 90.3 - 115.5 140.2 -
P/E (x) 75.7 75.0 56.5 36.9 - 28.8 23.7 -
RoCE (%) 20.5 18.5 21.6 23.1 - 26.3 28.0 -
RoE (%) 15.0 14.3 16.1 20.5 - 22.7 23.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Revenue grew 11.1% to US$241.5 million (mn), out of which organic growth was 5.6% QoQ while the rest has come through the inorganic route (data glove full integration and media agility for 2 months). In rupee terms, revenue grew 14.7% QoQ to | 1,878.1 crore
  • This is the fifth consecutive quarter of above 9+% QoQ growth. In terms of geographies, growth was aided by North America market (78.4% mix), which reported 10.8% QoQ while India market (11.3% mix) reported 14.3% QoQ growth
  • In terms of verticals, growth was aided by BFSI (33.7% mix), which grew 15.6% QoQ while technology (46.4% mix) grew 9.9% QoQ
  • EBIT margin came in at 14.3%, ~30 bps QoQ growth as factors like a) higher travel cost led by visa expenses which are incurred in Q1, b) lower utilization due to fresher hiring’s & c) higher SGA expenses restricted margin expansion for the quarter. The company indicated that it would roll out wage hikes in Q2 and also mentioned that wage hike this year would be higher than previous year and the impact of the same would be around 250-300 bps in Q2. The company also indicated that travel expenses will higher as travel opens up. It has incurred US$1.1 mn for visa expenses & ~US$200k for project related travel expenses in Q1.
  • Despite the above headwinds the company indicated that its EBIT margin will remain similar to last year’s level. The company indicated that it would be working on the following levers to improve its margins:

a)      pricing: the company indicated that it is passing on the inflation related cost to clients and new deals are coming at better pricing

b)     sub-contractor cost: the company indicated that with travel opening up it expects the sub-contractor costs to moderate

c)      utilization: the utilization level of the company has come down led by the fresher hiring’s. The company expects the same to continue for couple of quarters and expected to pick up thereafter after gradual deployment of resources

d)     acquisitions synergy: The company would take a pause in acquisition for couple of quarters which would allow the smooth integration of acquired companies, however it indicates that it is not shying away from any opportunity coming their way

e)     | currency depreciation: though it being a macro factor beyond company’s control, it believes currency depreciation will provide some tailwind opportunity

 

  • The company indicated that its top customers IP led contract is being reworked which has impacted the drop in IP led revenue & the revenue from its top customer. The company indicated that it is witnessing broad based growth across customers and also indicated that it intentionally rationalizing clients which are not scaling up
  • The company indicated that higher capital expenditure for the quarter was due to addition of laptops and electronics led by high fresher hiring’s, and also on account of setting up of new office in Haryana. The company indicated that the number is expected to moderate going forward.
  • The company excluding fresher’s reported a 30 bps dip in LTM attritions in the quarter to 26.3% (including fresher’s it was 24.8%). The company added 3039 net new employees including 1950 fresher’s in Q1 taking it total employee strength past 20k employees to 21,638. The company indicated that it will hire 1,350 fresher’s in Q2
  • The company indicated that demand environment continue to be robust and it is confident of strong growth in the coming quarters. As per the company, what is working in their favour when it comes to growth is early conversation with their clients citing global macro headwinds and access their needs.
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q1FY23   Q1FY22   YoY (%)  Q4FY22  QoQ (%)  Comments
 Revenue (USD mn)       241.5      166.8 44.8       217.3 11.1 5th consecutive quarter of above 9%+ QoQ growth
Revenue 1,878.1 1,229.9 52.7 1,637.9 14.7 Services revenue grew by 13.5% QoQ & IP revenue declined by 12.8% QoQ
Employee expenses 1,223.9 806.5 51.8 1,078.3 13.5  
             
Gross Margin 654.2 423.4 54.5 559.6 16.9  
Gross margin (%) 34.8 34.4 41 bps 34.2 67 bps  
Other expenses 320.9 221.9 44.6 278.4 15.3  
             
EBITDA 333.3 201.5 65.4 281.2 18.5  
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.7 16.4 136 bps 17.2 58 bps  
Depreciation & amortisation 64.5 35.0 84.3 51.1 26.2  
EBIT 268.8 166.5 61.4 230.0 16.8  
EBIT Margin (%) 14.3 13.5 77 bps 14.0 27 bps Margin expansion was restricted due to higher travelling cost, lower utilization & higher amotization cost
Other income 13.1 36.5 -64.2 37.1 -64.7  
PBT 281.9 203.1 38.8 267.2 5.5  
Tax paid 70.3 51.8 35.6 66.2 6.1  
PAT 211.6 151.2 39.9 201.0 5.3  

Disclaimer

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