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5Paisa Capital Ltd>
  • CMP : 558.7 Chg : 18.10 (3.35%)
  • Target : 375.0 (27.55%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

20 Jul 2022

Curb in opex aids bottomline

5Paisa is a leading discount stock broker backed by the Nirmal Jain led IIFL group.

  • Aggressive client accretion with ~86% of incremental client from Tier II & below cities and ~75% of customers below 35 years of age
  • The company has overall cash market share of ~3% as on June 2022
Moderation in client acquisition; cost control aid PAT
  • ADTO was up 13% QoQ and 136% YoY to ₹ 1.36 lakh crore
  • Moderation in client acquisition at 2.3 lakh; total clients at 29.6 lakh
  • Revenue was up 40% YoY but down 5% QoQ due to decline in brokerage
  • Sequentially opex declined 10%. Thus, PAT was up 62% QoQ to ₹ 7.5 crore

5Paisa’s share price has grown more than 40% over the past three years. Sustained improvement in profitability margin needs to be vetted. However, fintech offering in large opportunity market keeps us positive on the future growth prospects.

  • We retain our BUY rating on the stock

We lower multiple and value 5Paisa at ~24x FY24E EPS and 2.4x FY24E revenue to arrive at revised target price of ₹ 375 per share.

  • Focus on improving quality of customer to aid revenues growth & ARPU
    • Major IT spends over, thus control on opex to aid earnings trajectory
    • Improving granularity in client funding book to mitigate risks
    • Sustained earnings & gain in market share remain upside triggers

Apart from 5Paisa, in our coverage we also like MCX.

  • MCX is a leader in commodity derivative exchanges in India with ~94% market share in commodities future space

 

BUY with a target price of ₹ 1600

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E 3 Year CAGR(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
ADTO (| crore) 14,025.0 30,150.0 54,214.0 120,993.0 105.1 157,829.4 190,579.0 25.5
Market Share (%) 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 - 2.0 2.3 -
Revenue from operation (| crore) 62.6 108.1 193.1 297.1 68.0 372.6 457.1 24.0
Net Profit (| crore) -16.6 -7.9 14.8 13.8 - 31.8 45.4 -
EPS (|) -13.0 -3.4 5.8 4.7 - 10.8 15.5 -
P/E (x) -22.6 -86.7 50.7 62.6 - 27.2 19.0 -
RoE (%) -30.3 -8.6 10.0 5.2 - 8.2 10.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Analysis

| crore   Q1FY23 Q1FY21 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
Revenue for operations 84.0 60.0 40.0 88.2 -4.7 Sequential decline due to fall in broking and allied income as client addition and ARPU declines
               
Other Income   0.0 0.8 - 0.0 -  
               
Total Income   84.0 60.8 38.2 88.2 -4.8  
               
               
Finance Cost   5.5 4.6 19.5 5.7 -3.7  
Employee Expenses 14.2 8.9 58.4 12.7 11.2  
Other Expenses 52.2 36.2 44.4 62.1 -16.0 Lower customer acquisition cost and decline in IT expense led to decline in other cost
Depreciation   1.9 0.9 114.6 1.3 41.4  
Total Expnenses 73.7 50.6 45.8 81.9 -10.0  
               
Profit Before Tax 10.3 10.2 0.5 6.4 62.1  
Tax   2.8 2.8 0.6 1.7 63.3  
               
PAT   7.5 7.5 0.5 4.7 61.7

PAT sequentially driven by control over costs

 

 

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