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  • CMP : 36,305.0 Chg : -50.0 (-0.14%)
  • Target : 45,400.0 (10.46%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 Mar 2022

Strong demand to spur revenue growth

About The Stock

Page Industries is the exclusive licensee of JOCKEY international brand and is the market leader in premium innerwear and leisurewear category. The brand is distributed in 2,895+ cities & towns and available in 105000+ MBO’s and 1000+ EBO’s. Sold ~ 148 million pieces in FY21.

  • Strong backward integration facilities having capacity of 250 million pieces
  • Robust business model generating 55%+ RoCE, delivering consistent EBITDA margins of 20%+ and having debt free b/s.
Q1FY

Reported healthy operational performance in Q3FY22 with revenue and PAT coming in at an all-time high   

  • Revenue for the quarter grew 28% YoY to ₹ 1189.8 crore (2-year CAGR: 22%). Volume grew 24.6% YoY to 59.3 million pieces.
  • Despite RM inflationary pressure, company has been able to maintain healthy EBITDA margins of 21.1% (Q3FY21: 24%) 
  • Tracking steady operational performance, PAT grew by 14% YoY to ₹ 174.6 crore. Liquidity positon remains robust with cash worth ₹ 556 crore
What should Investors do?

Page share price has grown by ~3x over the past five years (from ~₹ 14300 in February 2017 to ~₹ 41000 levels in February 2022).

  • We maintain HOLD recommendation on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value Page at ₹ 45400 i.e. 65x FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • New initiatives (focus on kids wear segment, implementation of auto replenishment system, new launches in athleisure/women wear and thrust on increasing penetration in rural areas) to propel sales and earnings growth.
  • Significantly accelerated its distribution touchpoints (27200 in 9MFY22) to 105000+ MBO’s and 1030+ EBO stores
  • To further penetrate the untapped markets of tier III/IV cities, it has launched bouquet of products catering to these markets
  • Expects to sustain healthy revenue trajectory and company targets to its sales to reach USD 1 billion by FY26 (CAGR: 21%)
  • We build in revenue and earnings CAGR of 22%/32% in FY21-24E
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Page, in our retail coverage we also like Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail (ABFRL)

  • ABFRL has charted out growth strategies to become a ~US$2.8 billion entity (₹ 21000 crore) by FY26E, translating to 15% CAGR in FY20-26E
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 360/share

Key Financial Summary

Finacials FY19 FY20 FY21E 5 Year CAGR(FY16-FY21) FY22E FY23E FY24E 3 Year CAGR (FY21-FY24E)
Net Sales 2,852.0 2,945.4 2,833.0 9.0 3,702.0 4,453.2 5,165.5 22.0
EBITDA 617.0 532.6 526.6 7.0 693.7 963.8 1,140.8 29.0
PAT 394.0 343.2 340.6 8.0 462.2 651.3 779.0 32.0
P/E (x) 145.0 133.6 134.6 - 99.2 70.4 58.8 -
EV/Sales (x) 17.0 15.5 16.0 - 12.3 10.2 8.8 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 90.0 85.9 86.2 - 65.5 47.1 39.7 -
RoCE (%) 56.0 55.7 52.4 - 57.3 67.0 66.1 -
RoE (%) 44.0 41.9 38.5 - 44.2 51.1 50.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Timeline

0

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Sales momentum picked up pace in Q3FY22 materially owing to healthy festive demand and significant increase in distribution touchpoints.   Revenue for the quarter grew 28% YoY to | 1189.8 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1115.8 crore, two-year CAGR: 22%). The growth was majorly driven by healthy volumes (up 24.6% YoY to 59.3 million pieces). Average realisations improved 3% YoY to | 201/piece. The growth was broad based with healthy recovery witnessed across all segments (men’s, women athleisure and kids). Company continued to strengthen its distribution network with addition of 11000 MBO touchpoints (total: 105000+) in addition to 16200 added in H1FY22 and 36 EBOs (total 1030+)
  •  On account of higher RM prices, gross margins declined by 219 bps YoY to 53.2% (I-direct estimate: 54.7%). In the base quarter, company had significantly curtailed its operating overheads such as marketing and employee costs which had led to Page reporting its highest ever margins of ~24% in Q3FY21. However, as the sales now normalise, other expenses and employee cost increased by 30% and 36%, respectively. Subsequently, EBITDA margins contracted by 332 bps YoY to 21.1% (closer to its historical margin range). Absolute EBITDA grew by 11% YoY to | 250.7 crore.

Q3FY22 Earnings conference call highlights:

  • The quarter was excellent from a demand perspective as all the channels were operational without any significant restrictions. The management stated that demand exceeded supply and they had to ramp up in-house and outsourced capacities to benefit from the enhanced demand
  • On the distribution network front, the company believes that there is huge potential for expanding into rural and Tier 3 and 4 towns. The company has expanded its MBO distribution reach by more than 60% during the pandemic (from 65000 outlets to 105000 outlets. More than 50% of the MBOs have been added in the tier 3 and 4 towns. The management indicated that strategically it was planning to go closer to the customer. Over the next 4-5 years the management believes that there is scope to double the MBO outlets to ~ 200000.
  • The company is significantly enhancing its focus on womenswear and kids wear and expects these categories to grow at a fast pace. Also the management indicated that athleisure segment growth continues to remain robust. The company is introducing new products in each of the categories to capture higher market share. It expects womenswear to be the biggest pillar of growth in the company’s plan to become a billion-dollar company. The kids wear segment has seen good customer acceptance and hence the management is creating additional capacity for the same. The company has hired separate sales teams to increase the womenswear and kids wear business
  • The company has taken a price hike of 5% in Q2FY22 and has further taken a price hike of ~ 8% in January 2022. The company expects to maintain EBITDA margin of around 20-21% on a sustainable basis.
  • The company has started outsourcing from Bangladesh and is engaging with vendors who can provide goods as per quality standards required by the company.
  • The company has good liquidity position however, it is not looking at inorganic growth and believes that there is huge scope to invest in organic capacities and believes that the current demand scenario is strong and it would be able to maintain the current trajectory of revenue growth.
  • The company has crossed the 1000 EBO mark and has a presence in only 350 cities. The management indicated that it usually targets to add 150-200 EBOs annually and there is enough scope to double the EBO presence to ~ 2000 outlets over next five years.
 
Variance Analysis 
  Q3FY22 Q3FY22E Q3FY21 YoY (%) Q2FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 1,189.8 1,115.8 927.1 28.3 1,084.0 9.8   Growth mainly driven by enhanced distribution network and focus on new categories such as athleisure and kids wear
Other income 7.1 5.6 4.2 72.0 5.4 39.7    
                 
Employee Expense 190.0 181.9 146.2 30.0 176.8 7.5    
Raw Material Expense 556.3 505.5 413.1 34.7 489.9 13.6   On account of higher RM prices, gross margins declined by 219 bps YoY to 53.2%
SG&A Expenses 192.7 187.5 141.7 36.1 183.9 4.8    
                 
EBITDA 250.7 241.0 226.1 10.9 233.4 7.4    
EBITDA Margin (%) 21.1 21.6 24.4 -332 bps 21.5 -46 bps   EBITDA margins contracted by 332 bps YoY to 21.1% (closer to its historical margin range)
Depreciation 16.7 16.9 15.6 6.8 16.5 1.1    
Interest 7.7 7.6 7.4 4.6 7.5 3.8    
                 
PBT 233.5 222.2 207.3 12.6 214.8 8.7    
Tax Outgo 58.9 55.9 53.6 9.9 54.3 8.3    
PAT 174.6 166.3 153.7 13.6 160.5 8.8    
 

Change in Estimates

      FY22E     FY23E     FY24E  
(| Crore)   Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change
Revenue   3,557.6 3,702.0 4.1 4,387.6 4,453.2 1.5 5,088.4 5,165.5 1.5
EBITDA   688.8 693.7 0.7 952.2 963.8 1.2 1,126.4 1,140.8 1.3
EBITDA margin (%)   19.4 18.7 -62 bps 21.7 21.6 -6 bps 22.1 22.1 -5 bps
PAT   458.6 462.2 0.8 649.6 651.3 0.3 776.3 779.0 0.4
EPS (|)   411.0 414.4 0.8 582.4 583.9 0.3 696.0 698.4 0.4

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