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  • CMP : 36,930.0 Chg : -135.0 (-0.36%)
  • Target : 52,680.0 (6.42%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

12 Aug 2022

Healthy revenue print driven by strong volumes

About The Stock

Page Industries is the exclusive licensee of Jockey international brand and is the market leader in premium innerwear and leisurewear category. The brand is distributed in 2,895+ cities & towns and available in 113715+ MBOs and 1144+ EBOs. It sold ~ 190 million pieces in FY22.

  • Strong backward integration facilities having capacity of 250 million pieces
  • Robust business model generating 66%+ RoCE, delivering consistent EBITDA margins of 20%+ and having debt free b/s
Q1FY23 result summary

In its seasonally strong quarter, Page reported a healthy operational performance with revenue and PAT coming in at an all-time high in Q1FY23.

  •                 On a favourable base, revenue for the quarter grew 167% YoY to ₹ 1341.3 crore (three-year CAGR: 17%). Volumes grew 150% YoY to 64 million pieces (three-year CAGR: 9%)
  • Despite RM inflationary pressure, the company has been able to maintain healthy EBITDA margins of 22.2%. Absolute EBITDA grew at an impressive three year CAGR of 17% to ₹ 297.8 crore
  • Tracking healthy operational performance, PAT was at ₹ 207.1 crore (three-year CAGR: 23%). Cash & investments grew 11% QoQ to ₹ 314.4 crore
What should Investors do?

Page’s share price has grown by ~2.5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 20000 in August 2017 to ~₹ 49500 levels in August 2022).

  • We maintain HOLD recommendation on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Page at ₹ 52680 i.e. 66x FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • New initiatives (focus on kids wear segment, new launches in athleisure/women wear and thrust on increasing penetration in rural areas) to propel sales and earnings growth
  • Significantly accelerated its distribution touchpoints (added 32548 outlets in FY22) to 113715+ MBOs and 1144+ EBO stores
  • To further penetrate the untapped markets of tier III/IV cities, it has launched bouquet of products catering to these markets
  • Expects to sustain healthy revenue trajectory and company targets to its sales to reach US$1 billion by FY26 (CAGR: ~18%)
  • We build in revenue, earnings CAGR of 24%, 29% in FY22-24E, respectively
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Page, in our retail coverage we also like Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail (ABFRL).

  • ABFRL has charted out growth strategies to become a ~US$2.8 billion entity (₹ 21000 crore) by FY26E, translating to 15% CAGR in FY20-26E
    • BUY with target price of ₹ 350/share

Disclaimer

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