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Orient Cement Ltd>
  • CMP : 221.4 Chg : 1.65 (0.75%)
  • Target : 150.0 (27.12%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

17 May 2022

Strong BS to help withstand near term cost challenges

About The Stock

Orient Cement is a mid-sized (8.0MT) cost-efficient player in the cement space. Its cement plants are located in Devapur, Telangana (3MT integrated), Chittapur, Karnataka (3MT integrated) and Jalgaon, Maharastra (2MT grinding unit).

  • The co. derives revenues largely from Maharashtra (50%), Telangana, Karnataka and MP markets 

It also has 101MW power plant (95MW CPP, 6MW WHRS) that makes it self-sufficient in terms power requirements

Q4FY22 performance

Orient cement reported improved performance during Q4FY22.

  • Net revenue increased 30.2% QoQ (down 3.3% YoY) to ₹803.9 crore. Volumes were up 33.1%QoQ to 1.62MT (down 12.4% YoY on high base). CU stood at 81% vs 93% LY and 61% last quarter.
  • Despite 56% QoQ jump in the fuel costs, margins broadly remained stable at 19.1% QoQ.
  • Further, with sharp decline in the interest costs (down ~69% YoY, QoQ), net profit improved 67.6% QoQ to ₹73.2 crore. However, PAT was lower by 26.7% on YoY basis
What should Investors do?

Orient Cement’s share price has grown only 46% over the past 3 years (from ~₹115 in Aug-2018 to ₹167 in July 2021). 

With strong balance-sheet, the company is now in better position to withstand the cost challenges 

Target Price Valuation

We value co. at ₹150 i.e.6.0x FY24E EV/EBITDA

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Company to reach total 14.5MT cement capacity by FY26E in the next phase of expansion with an eye on Rajasthan market.
  • Likely transfer of mines in Rajasthan from Orient Paper to the company post favourable changes in the MMDR act to speed-up expansion in Rajasthan.
  • Close proximity to raw materials, higher share of blended cement (PPC) and lower lead distance to keep production costs lower than the industry avg.
  • WHRS plant of 10MW in Chittapur should be operational in FY23, hence the cost-savings should start accruing from FY24 onwards.

Other highlights

  • Volume offtake remained weak due to absence of mega infra projects. Demand in Maharashtra were better than South markets. With regards to market mix, Maharashtra contributed 53%, South 37% and Central region 10% of total sales.
    • Fuel mix: 59% coal (domestic linkage: 51%, international coal: 8%) and 24% petcoke in Q4FY22.
  • The Apr’22 price hikes were not sufficient to offset the fuel inflation. As per the management, current demand scenario will not be able to absorb large price hikes.
  • Trade sales contributed 60% to the sales mix (flat QoQ) while blended cement share stood at ~63%.
  • Higher fuel prices were partially mitigated through higher usage of alternative fuels. Further, savings also accrued from the commissioning of solar power source for Jalgaon unit. Power and fuel prices are expected to be up 12-13% sequentially in Q1FY23.
  • Employee expenses declined by 18% YoY as excess bonus/variable payouts provisions made earlier were reversed during Q4FY22.
  • Average lead distance were at 300km. Rail despatches stood at 25% against 21% in Q3FY22. Higher fuel price coupled with rising packaging costs offset the gains of higher rail volumes and decline in lead distance.
    • Net debt as of Mar’22 stood at ~₹260 crore. The company repaid ₹490 crore of debt (project loans) in FY22.
  • Company aims to commission the Tiroda, Maharashtra (2MT grinding unit) and Devapur, Telangana (2MT clinker line with 1-1.5MT grinding unit) by Q4FY24. However, equipment order are yet tobe made.
  • Company to spend ₹700-750 crore in FY23E and ₹1300 crore in FY24E. Management expects peak debt to reach ₹1100 crore by FY24.
  • WHRS plant of 10MW in Chittapur should be operational in FY23, hence the cost-savings should start accruing from FY24 onwards
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Orient Cement, in our cement sector coverage we also like another South based player Sagar Cement.

  • Another low cost producer, expanding footprint in East/Central region.

BUY with a target price of ₹ 265/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 1,810.8 1,596.3 497.1 1,034.5 -17.0 1,591.3 1,811.8 32.3
EBITDA 405.9 290.3 -291.9 15.1 -66.6 365.1 429.3 433.4
EBITDA (%) 22.4 18.2 -58.7 1.5 - 22.9 23.7 -
PAT 194.4 163.2 -377.3 -58.6 -167.0 203.1 232.0
EPS (|) 3.1 2.6 -6.0 -0.9 - 3.2 3.7 -
EV/EBITDA 22.0 31.1 -30.5 588.8 - 23.8 19.6 -
D/E 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 - 0.1 0.1 -
RoNW (%) 6.5 5.2 -12.2 -1.9 - 6.5 7.0 -
RoCE (%) 9.6 5.7 -9.9 -1.5 - 8.4 10.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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