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  • CMP : 842.0 Chg : 13.75 (1.66%)
  • Target : 460.0 (15.58%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

18 Jan 2023

Strong Q4 to drive FY23 revenue; looking to accelerate growth thereafter

About The Stock

Incorporated in 1992, Newgen is a low code application development platform company. It is an established player in the market of enterprise content management (ECM), business process management (BPM) & customer communications management (CCM).

  • Annuity based revenues (SaaS + ATS/AMC + Support) comprises 59% of the revenue mix while license & others form 20.7% of the revenue mix each
  • Vertical wise, BFSI comprises 66% of revenue mix while geographical break-up has been largely equal between India, US, EMEA & APAC
Q3FY23 Results:

Newgen reported robust numbers in Q3FY23.

  • Reported revenue grew 25.9% YoY with SaaS increasing by 95.7% YoY
  • The company added 16 new logos in Q3
  • Annuity revenue grew 38.4% YoY
What should Investors do?

Newgen’s share price has grown ~1.5x since January 2018 (when it got listed) to January 2023      .

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Newgen at ₹ 460 i.e., 13x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strong logo addition and increasing annuity mix (recurring business) from existing clients would aid revenue growth of 18.7% CAGR in FY22-25E
  • The company is targeting 10 deals per year as far as GSI opportunity is concerned, which will drive incremental revenue opportunity
  • Recent acquisition of number theory will strengthen its platform with AI/ML modelling and data analytics capability
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Newgen, in our IT coverage we also like Cyient.

  • The company offers engineering & development services to aerospace, transportation, energy & utilities segments
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1020

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
Net Sales 660.8 672.6 779.0 12.8 942.9 1,112.4 1,304.4 18.7
EBITDA 104.6 191.9 194.7 22.6 189.7 239.6 286.5 13.8
EBITDA Margins (%) 15.8 28.5 25.0 - 20.1 21.5 22.0 -
Net Profit 72.7 126.5 164.2 26.2 162.0 212.3 247.6 14.7
EPS (|) 10.5 18.1 23.5 - 23.2 30.4 35.5 -
P/E 37.7 21.8 16.9 - 17.1 13.0 11.2 -
RoNW (%) 13.2 19.0 20.2 - 17.0 18.6 18.1 -
RoCE (%) 15.8 26.4 23.7 - 20.3 21.6 21.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported revenue of | 254.9 crore, up 25.9% YoY. Annuity revenue (ATS/AMC,          SaaS & Support) (which is 61% of the mix for Q3) was at | 154.4 crore, up 38.4% YoY while license revenue was 23% of the mix for Q3, up 16% YoY to | 57.7 crore. The subscription revenue (ATS/AMC & SaaS that is 33% of mix), grew 36.9% YoY to | 84.4 crore
  • EBITDA margins increased sequentially by ~650 bps to 23.1% while YoY it reported a decline of ~550 bps. The company indicated that margins in the last year were higher due to the lower travel & marketing cost due to the Covid restrictions
  • Geography wise India (33.8% of revenue mix) led the growth with 39.9% YoY growth while EMEA (27.7% of mix), US (24.4% of mix) & APAC (14.1% of mix) grew 26.9%, 27.1% & 13.4% YoY, respectively
  • On the India market, the company indicated that it has been traditionally strong in the market and growth in this quarter was a positive surprise. Newgen also indicated that some portion of the growth in the market for the quarter was also aided by higher-than-normal license deals, which generally have an upfront payment component in place. The company mentioned that 9MYTD number for the market would be a right indication where it has witnessed strong growth (ex-license deals) aided by winning of new logos as well renewals from the existing customers
  • Vertical wise, banking (67% of mix) led the growth with 33.9% YoY growth while insurance & healthcare reported YoY growth of 97.8% & 4.9%, respectively, albeit on a lower base. Government & Others vertical revenue declined 8.5% & 5.6% YoY, respectively
  • The company indicated that in the India market, fintech companies doesn’t form any meaningful customer mix (since they are generally being managed by in-house IT talent) while banks and NBFC continue to form a major part of their revenue in the market. Any issues in fintech companies will likely not have an impact. The growth in the market was aided by continued spending by banks and NBFCs on automation of their complex processes as well as procuring products for additional processes from the company. The company also indicated that due to its strong customer relationships in the market, growth was likely to sustain, going forward
  • The company added 16 new logos in Q3 taking total new logos added in YTD December 2022 to 36. Newgen indicated that out of the 16 new logos five were in the Americas region
  • The company continued to aim to reach US$500 mn revenues in the next five to six years, which includes GSI contribution as well inorganic contribution. Newgen also maintained 20%+ revenue growth guidance for FY23 as Q4 is seasonally a strong quarter for them. As per the company, growth would continue to be driven by India, EMEA and APAC market followed by the US market. Newgen also said it does not see any challenges to achieve this growth target on account of strong product portfolio it has built up over the years and continued acceptability of the same in the markets in which it operates
  • As far as the US market is concerned, the company indicated that the opportunity pool continues to increase there but growth has not panned out in this quarter as per its expectations on account of strategic decision to move out of some deals due to lack of scale up opportunity in those accounts and low margin profile. The company won three deals in the quarter out of 16 deals in the GSI space (out of these three deals, two were from the US and one from Australia). Newgen also indicated that deals in US market through GSI are coming at slower pace than anticipated. Hence, it is aiming to win 10 annual deals there. The company also indicated that GSI revenue contribution is still not material for it (<5% of the sale) compared to >50% for the some peer companies globally having US$300-400mn annual revenues
  • The company indicated that it does not see any vendor consolidation theme playing out in its customer portfolio since cost of changing vendor could also be higher. Newgen also mentioned that since its products run through core systems and forms part of their strategy to cut down cost by automation of the complex processes, till the time the products are running fine and yielding desired results, the change may not happen. The change may happen due to i) continued technical glitches ii) technology stack itself becoming obsolete. The company indicated that it is confident of its products and the continued enhancements of the same through 10% of sales spend on R&D annually. Newgen also said that its confidence is also coming from retention rate among customers, which is around 100% for non-SAAS deals and >90% in SAAS deals. The company also indicated that out of 16 deals it won for the quarter, nine were of subscription
  • The company also mentioned that its recently launched trade finance platform is doing well and has been well received by clients. Newgen said it has already closed a deal through this platform and two to three deals are in the pipeline. The company also indicated that deal sizes in this product generally vary from US$400-500K to US$1-2mn at the higher end. Hence, Newgen is targeting three to four such deals in the year as such revenues have a long tail. The company also indicated that it has got deals in India and Middle East so far and now it is pursuing deals in the other markets
  • On attrition, the company indicated that it is witnessing some moderation on supply side pressure. Newgen also added that it would continue to see hiring, going forward, and it will be skewed towards fresher talent on easing of attrition. The company is training freshers and looking to deploy them early. Hence, pyramid optimisation likely to play out in the medium to long term as it is building incremental base at reasonable costs. The company also said travel costs have fully resumed and on account of customer meetings in Dubai, Mumbai & Delhi in this quarter, there was some impact on margins. The company indicated that in the short terms, operating costs are likely to see some upward trajectory on travel costs normalisation as customer meetings are critical for the growth as well as sales & marketing costs. The company also indicated that in the medium term, the operating leverage will play out since 25% revenue growth at that time may require cost escalation of around 15%. On the margin front, the company is confident on strong margins in Q4 and guided for 22-23% for FY23
Variance Analysis
 
   Q3FY23   Q3FY22   YoY (%)   Q2FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 254.9 202.5 25.9 226.1 12.7 SaaS revenue grew by 97% YoY while Subscription & Annuity revenues grew by 36.9% & 38.4% YoY respectively
Employee expense 130.4 102.6 27.1 127.8 2.1  
             
Gross Margin 124.5 99.9 24.6 98.4 26.6  
Gross margin (%) 48.8 49.3 -50 bps 43.5 534 bps  
Other expense 65.6 42.1 55.9 60.8 7.9 Other expenses increased due to normalisation of few costs like travel and S&M expenses
             
EBITDA 58.9 57.9 1.8 37.6 56.8  
EBITDA Margin (%) 23.1 28.6 -546 bps 16.6 649 bps  
Depreciation & amortisation 6.2 4.3 42.2 6.1 1.1  
EBIT 52.8 53.5 -1.4 31.5 67.6  
EBIT Margin (%) 20.7 26.4 -574 bps 13.9 677 bps  
Other income (less interest) 8.3 6.5 27.2 5.4 53.1  
PBT 61.1 60.1 1.7 36.9 65.5  
Tax paid 12.9 12.3 5.0 6.6 93.9  
PAT 48.2 47.8 0.8 30.3 59.2  

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