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Newgen Software Technologies Ltd>
  • CMP : 982.0 Chg : -8.35 (-0.84%)
  • Target : 445.0 (20.27%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

19 Oct 2022

Aspiring to reach US$500 mn annual revenues in 5-6 years

About The Stock

Incorporated in 1992, Newgen is a low code application development platform company. It is an established player in the market of enterprise content management (ECM), business process management (BPM) & customer communications management (CCM).

  • Annuity based revenues (SaaS + ATS/AMC + Support) comprises 59% of revenue mix while license & others form 20.7% revenue mix each
  • Vertical wise, BFSI comprises 66% of revenue mix while geographical break-up has been largely equal between India, US, EMEA & APAC
Q2FY23 Results:

Newgen reported strong YoY revenue growth.

  • Reported revenue up 21.9% YoY led by SaaS, which grew 50% YoY
  • The company added 14 new logos in Q2 and 20 in H1FY23
  • Annuity revenue grew 24.3% YoY
What should Investors do?

Newgen’s share price has grown ~1.5x since listing in January 2018–October 2022              .

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Newgen at ₹ 445 i.e. 13x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strong logo addition and increasing annuity mix (recurring business) from existing clients would aid revenue growth of 16.2% CAGR in FY22-25E
  • The company is working on 90 cases as far as GSI opportunity is concerned, which could provide an incremental revenue opportunity of ₹ 79-131 crore depending on the funnel as well as winning rate, etc
  • Recent acquisition of number theory will strengthen its platform with AI/ML modelling and data analytics capability
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Newgen, in our IT coverage we also like Intellect.

  • SaaS driven BFSI focused product company
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 740

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 660.8 672.6 779.0 12.8 920.0 1,081.2 1,220.6 16.2
EBITDA 104.6 191.9 194.7 22.6 211.2 254.1 290.0 14.2
EBITDA Margins (%) 15.8 28.5 25.0 - 23.0 23.5 23.8 -
Net Profit 72.7 126.5 164.2 26.2 175.4 212.3 239.5 13.4
EPS (|) 10.5 18.1 23.5 - 25.1 30.4 34.3 -
P/E 35.0 20.2 15.7 - 14.7 12.1 10.8 -
RoNW (%) 13.2 19.0 20.2 - 18.2 18.3 17.4 -
RoCE (%) 15.8 26.4 23.7 - 21.7 21.4 20.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported revenue of | 226.1 crore, up 21.9%. Annuity revenue (ATS/AMC,          SaaS & Support) (which is 63% of the mix for Q2) reported a revenue of | 142.5 crore, up 24.3% YoY while license revenue was 20.8% of the mix for Q2, up 15% YoY to | 47.1 crore. The subscription revenue (ATS/AMC & SaaS that is 35.1% of mix), as per the company, growth momentum indicator grew 30.4% YoY
  • The company reported EBITDA margin of 16.6%, down ~850 bps YoY and EBITDA of | 37.6 crore. The company indicated that the drop was due to continued elevated employee cost (up 25.3% YoY) due to persistent supply side challenges and resumption of travel cost
  • Geography wise India (29.8% of revenue mix), EMEA (32.6% of mix) & APAC (14.7% of mix) grew 27.2%, 23.5% & 39% YoY, respectively, while US region reported growth of 5.8% YoY due to change in company’s strategy
  • The company indicated that growth in the quarter was mainly driven by India, APAC and EMEA market while the US market continued to be a pain point. Newgen indicated that growth in the US market was also impacted by some change of strategy wherein it is now looking to tap some large deals and consequently also did some leadership changes there. It expects some recovery in the US market but also indicated that decision making has slowed down in the market. It indicated that its clients continue to spend on its products and it has not witnessed any slowdown in its traditional market. It expects continued growth momentum, especially from EMEA market, if oil prices remain stable at this level
  • Vertical wise, banking (61.4% of mix) reported 15.2% YoY growth with revenue of | 138.9 crore while government/PSU & insurance reported growth of 363.4% & 9.8% YoY, respectively, albeit on a lower base with a revenue of | 34.4 crore & | 16.3 crore, respectively. BPO/IT & Healthcare vertical reported a YoY decline of 2.7% & 3.8%, respectively
  • The company maintained EBITDA margin guidance band of 23-25% in FY23. It mentioned that cost structures of H1 have been unusually high compared to historical trends due to a spike in attrition, which pushes wage correction for roles in Q2 as well, returning of some costs in terms of travelling and facility expenses. Newgen expects attrition to moderate in H2 and expects pyramid optimisation benefits to help margin performance in H2
  • Newgen added 14 new logos in the quarter. The company had earlier indicated that it will add 50-60 new logos in FY23, which implies strong logo addition in H2
  • The company launched low code, comprehensive, easily, configurable and future-ready trade finance platform during the quarter. Newgen termed this as a game changer in the banking industry as it expected banks to go paperless and streamline their end to end trade processes while ensuring compliance with domestic and international regulations. The company also opined that trade finance is on the verge of transformation as these processes are quite old i.e. seven to eight years. Newgen is pursuing 30 opportunities here and is looking to close three to four opportunities in the near term. The company also indicated that through this platform, it is chasing large size deals here. Newgen also indicated that this product is also expected to provide a long tail of opportunities ahead
  • The company is aspiring to be a US$500mn annual revenue company in the next five to six years. Newgen also indicated that this aspiration is based on improved performance from the US market (which is lagging currently) and continued steady performance from the other geographies. The company also indicated that its newly launched trade finance platform is expected to be one of the key growth levers for this aspiration. Newgen maintained its revenue growth guidance of 20% for FY23. The company also indicated that it not averse to an inorganic acquisition if a strategic opportunity arises as it has substantial cash reserves
  • The company sees strong deal pipeline as far as GSI opportunity is concerned as the funnel now increased further and stands at 90 deals. It closed two deals during the quarter (one from the US and another from Australia). Newgen indicated that though the pipeline for GSI opportunities continues to be strong, deal conversion here is not happening as per its expectations. Hence, growth is getting impacted
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 226.1 185.5 21.9 187.9 20.3 SaaS revenue grew by 50% YoY while Subscription & Annuity revenues grew by 30.4% & 24.3% YoY respectively
Employee expense 127.8 102.0 25.3 116.2 10.0  
             
Gross Margin 98.4 83.5 17.7 71.7 37.2  
Gross margin (%) 43.5 45.0 -154 bps 38.2 534 bps  
other expense 60.8 36.9 64.6 52.4 15.9  
             
EBITDA 37.6 46.6 -19.4 19.3 95.0  
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.6 25.1 -851 bps 10.3 636 bps Margin impacted due to supply side challenges & normalization of travel cost
Depreciation & amortisation 6.1 4.3 42.4 5.6 8.4  
EBIT 31.5 42.3 -25.6 13.6 130.7  
EBIT Margin (%) 13.9 22.8 -889 bps 7.3 666 bps  
Other income (less interest) 5.4 6.4 -14.8 9.3 -41.6  
PBT 36.9 48.7 -24.2 22.9 60.9  
Tax paid 6.6 11.3 -41.3 3.8 76.0  
PAT 30.3 37.4 -19.0 19.2 57.9  

Disclaimer

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