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  • CMP : 1,233.5 Chg : -1.10 (-0.09%)
  • Target : 21,600.0 (13.07%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

29 Jul 2022

Volume growth sustained in challenging times…

About the stock

Nestlé India (NIL) is the largest food company in India with over Rs 14000 crore of sales. It is broadly present in infant & baby food products, noodles, chocolates & beverage categories. In the last five years, the company has forayed into newer categories and launched more than 100 new products.

  • The company has nine manufacturing facilities including newly commissioned plant in Sanand, Gujarat. Its major brands include Maggi, Nescafe, KitKat, Cerelac among others
Q2CY22 Results

Nestlé India reported strong sales growth & sharp dip in margins

  • Sales were up 16.1% YoY led by mix of price hike & volume growth
  • EBITDA was at Rs 819.5 crore, down 3.4% YoY with margins at 20.3%
  • PAT was at Rs 515.3 crore (down 4.3% YoY) impacted by margin contraction
What should Investors do?

Nestlé India’s share price has given return of 184% in the last five years (from Rs 6702 in July 2017 to Rs 19104 in July 2022).

  • We have cut out CY22 earnings estimates on the back of inflation challenges in near term. Introducing CY24 numbers
  • We continue to maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at Rs 21600, valuing the business 65x CY24 earnings

Key triggers for future price performance
  • The company is undertaking a capex of Rs 2600 crore in the next three to four years to expand the capacity of its existing products
  • NIL is increasing its rural footprint from 0.8 lakh villages to 1.2 lakh villages in the next three years
  • Out of home space, modern trade growth has come back to normal level, which is supporting growth in core categories. Sanand factory enhance supply of noodles & other high growing brands
  • Acquisition of pet-food brand PURINA & Introduction of global brand ‘GERBER’ in nutrition segment would increase the addressable market in premium food space
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Tata Consumer Products in our FMCG coverage

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampaan & Soulful in India market expected to drive sales and margins
  • We value the stock at Rs 910 on ascribing 55x FY24 earnings multiple

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials CY20 CY21 5 Year CAGR % (CY15-CY20) CY22E CY23E CY24E (Blank) CAGR % (CY21-24E)
Net Sales 13,290.2 14,633.7 9.2 16,376.7 18,091.8 19,952.1 - 10.9
EBITDA 3,201.5 3,591.5 11.7 3,621.0 4,397.5 4,908.8 - 11.0
EBITDA Margin % 24.0 24.4 - 22.0 24.2 24.5 - -
Adjusted Net Profit 2,082.4 2,320.8 18.3 2,297.2 2,834.3 3,202.0 - 11.3
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 216.0 240.7 18.3 238.3 294.0 332.1 - 11.3
P/E 88.5 85.9 - 80.2 65.0 57.5 - -
RoNW % 103.1 111.3 - 111.1 118.3 122.8 - -
RoCE (%) 54.6 58.7 - 57.0 64.7 69.4 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q2CY22 Results: Strong volume growth of ~7%; margins to recover with major commodities cooling down…

  • NIL witnessed a revenue growth of 16.1% to Rs 4036.6 crore led by 8.5% price growth & 7.6% volume growth during the quarter. Some of the important out of home space like hotels, restaurants, education institutes & workplaces opened up completely which aided the growth in Q2. Out of home channel was adversely impacted by Covid-19 second wave in corresponding quarters. The ecommerce segment is contributing 6.4% to the sales & it is growing at 14-15%.
  • All the segment (Milk products, Noodles, Beverage, Chocolates) witnessed double digit growth driven by mix of prices & volumes. The price hikes were taken by company to pass on commodity inflation in Milk, edible oil, wheat & packaging costs. The double digit growth in Milk products segment is largely led by very strong growth in Milkmaid.
  • The company saw sales growth of 13.3% in H1CY22 aided by 7% volume growth & 6.3% pricing growth. The revenue growth of 13.3% was contributed by 24.4% growth in chocolate & confectionary segment, 21.7% growth in beverage segment, 13.9% growth in prepared dishes (noodles, ketch-up etc) and 7.2% in milk product & nutrition brands
  • The growth in H1 was secular across mega cities, metros and smaller towns with 14-16% growth in last two years (average 7-8% pa). However, the growth in villages have been 31% in last two years (average 15% pa). It is important to note that NIL’s presence in rural regions have been relatively less & it is enhancing its rural reach from 80k villages to 120k by 2024.
  • The commodity inflation has been unprecedented in last one year. Average raw material inflation during 2018-2020 was 3% pa which is 15% in 2022. Though, crude, edible oil have started cooling off recently, but milk, green coffee, wheat & fuel inflation still remains at an elevated level.
  • NIL has launched over 100 new products in last five years & 15 new innovations are under pipeline, which would be launched in future. New innovations, which used to contribute 2.7% to the sales in 2017, is now contributing 5.6% to the sales in 2022 (H1CY22).
  • Given most of the commodity prices were at elevated levels for most part of the quarter, gross margins contracted by 304 bps. The company was able to save some costs with 77 bps lower employee spends (% to sales) however, other overhead spends were higher by 81 bps. We believe higher freight cost due to sharp increase in fuel prices has increased this expense. Provision for contingencies, CSR spends were also higher during the quarter.
  • Considering sharp increase in raw material & other overhead costs, operating profit saw a dip of 3.4% to Rs 819.5 crore. Operating margins contracted by 409 bps to 20.3% during the quarter. Other income was down by 34.3% due to lower liquidity. Net profit de-grew by 4.3% to Rs 515.3 crore
  • The company has been focusing on volume growth, which reflects from the fact that it has not passed on entire raw material inflation in terms of price hikes. Though, the company is undertaking cost rationalisation measures, the recovery is margins would come with considerable dip in commodity prices
  • The company acquired Nestle SA’s 100% subsidiary PURINA petcare India, which involves in the business of Pet food. It sells PFB (dry dog and wet cat foods) under global brands such as Purina Supercoat, Purina Pro Plan and Purina Friskies. The cost of transaction was Rs 123.5 crore, which values the business 3.4x its turnover for FY22 i.e. Rs 36.1 crore. The integration of the business would be effected from 1st October 2022.
  • The pet care market size in India is ~Rs 4,000 crore and is expected to grow at ~25%. Dry dog food is the biggest segment in the market with a 75% share. Wet cat food is a strong opportunity and is growing at 35%. Faster rate of pet adoption and expansion of the pet food category to smaller towns and general retail stores as well as ecommerce will further aid growth.
  • PURINA has a presence in 46 towns with 2000 retail touch points. The company’s revenue has grown at a CAGR of 39.5% to Rs 31.2 crore in 2021. It is likely to clock Rs 46.3 crore sales in CY22
  • The company would be launching its global brand ‘GERBER’ in nutrition space. With this launch, it would be looking to revive its presence in Nutrition category for toddlers (2-6 years). The estimate size of the opportunity is Rs 3500 crore. Gerber has been present globally since the past 90 years. The products will be made in India and sold domestically.
  • Both the forays in Pet Food & Nutrition space is part of the premiumisation strategy for the company. The price of Purina & GERBER indexed 100 to Maggi noodles in 130 & 700 respectively.
Nestle India witnessed its highest growth in 15 quarters aided by strong pricing growth & sustainable high single digit volume growth (7% in H1CY22). On a three year CAGR basis, revenue growth has been robust 10.4%. We believe opening up of modern trade, out of home space & high pricing growth has led to this strong growth. Though, margins have been adversely impacted by commodity inflation, the trend of softening inflation is likely to result in margin recovery from December-quarter onwards. With the acquisition of PURINA in petcare & launch of GERBER in nutrition space, the company is increasing its addressable market in its existing & newer category. This would pave the way for long term growth in underpenetrated packaged foods & fast growing pet food category in India.  Though, we are positive on long term growth prospects for the company, the stock is trading at premium multiples. We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 21600/share (earlier Rs 19050)

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